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2019年06月18日 19:51:19    日报  参与评论()人

惠州友好医院割包皮价格惠州人民医院风湿免疫科惠城区医院是属于私立还是公立? The version promulgated by the Emperor Meiji in 1889 [CHKD]created a state empowered to direct Japan’s modernisation fusing economic, political and social power in the service of the national purpose, legitimised by an absolute monarchy.1889年由明治天皇颁布的宪法缔造了一个带领日本迈向现代化的国家体制——集中经济、政治和社会力量,为国家目标务,而这一切的合法性来自绝对君主制。The later document decentralised power and divested the state of its military power.和平宪法对权力进行了分散,剥夺了国家的军事力量。Will a new constitution once again seek to mend the social compact? Or will leaders set their sights lower, tinkering, tweaking language or amending the 1947 blueprint of their democracy to meet today’s social needs? It is too early to tell. 新版宪法会寻求再次修改这种社会契约吗?抑或日本领导人会降低期望值、在字面上稍作调整,或是修改1947年制定的民主蓝图以满足当今的社会需求?现在评判还为时过早。The committee to revise the constitution has catalogued the changes Japan’s political parties think could improve their founding document. 修宪委员会已经列出了日本各政党认为可以改进该国宪制文件的修改内容。The governing Liberal Democratic party has a draft to share, as Mr Abe pointed out after the election, a draft he says could serve as a basis for legislative discussion.正如安倍晋三在选举后所指出的那样,执政的自民党制定了自己的草案,安倍称该草案可以作为立法讨论的基础。But it will take far more than the 242 legislators in the upper house or even the roughly 700 in both houses to determine what a new constitution might look like. 但是,制定新宪法所需要的不仅是上42名议员的持——即使获得两院近700名议员的持也不够。Article 96 of the present document declares that two-thirds of all the members of each house of parliament must create a proposal for revision. After that, a national referendum must be held to gain approval.现行宪法6条规定,上下两院各三分之二以上的议员必须拿出一份修订提议。之后必须由全民公投批准修订。And the fact is that, while voters have created an opening for those who advocate revision, they seem deeply ambivalent about the prospect of tampering with the document that has supported their transition to democracy.事实是,尽管选民们为那些提倡修宪的政客创造了一个切入点,但是他们似乎对修订曾经持日本实现民主转型的宪法的前景深感矛盾。Popular sovereignty brings agency to the people; it should not be abandoned easily. All the social institutions must claim a stake in the process and all citizens must take responsibility for the outcome. 人民主权给人民带来能动性;它不应该被轻易抛弃。所有社会机构都应该参与这一过程,所有公民都必须对结果负起责任。Revising simply for the sake of revising will only weaken confidence in Japan’s democracy, at home and abroad.为了修宪而修宪,只会削弱国内外对日本民主的信心。来 /201608/463245惠州疱疹治疗

惠州得了尿道炎该怎么办Donald Trump has threatened to abandon US efforts to restore trade and diplomatic ties with Cuba unless Havana makes new concessions, setting the stage for a clash with a US business community eager to exploit the opening up of the island economy.唐纳特朗Donald Trump)威胁称,除非古巴做出新的让步,否则将放弃美国恢复与古巴的贸易和外交关系的努力,此举似乎将引发一场与美国商界的冲突,后者渴望利用这个岛国经济的开放。If Cuba is unwilling to make a better deal for the Cuban people, the Cuban/American people and the US as a whole, I will terminate deal, Mr Trump tweeted yesterday, responding to a debate set off by the death on Friday of former Cuban leader Fidel Castro.如果古巴不愿为了古巴人民,古美国人民和美国作为一个整体达成一项更好的协议,我会终止协议,特朗普昨日在Twitter上发消息称,回应了上周五古巴前领导人菲德卡斯特罗(Fidel Castro)去世引发的辩论。The threat to unwind years of work by President Barack Obama to restore normal relations with Cuba drew a plea from business leaders for the president-elect to take a more considered view.放弃现任总统巴拉奥巴Barack Obama)恢复与古巴正常关系的多年努力,这一威胁让商界领袖恳请这位候任总统采取更加深思熟虑的看法。We’ve now gotten to a point where we have an embassy and we have commercial flights that are starting [and] US companies managing hotels [in Cuba]. 我们现在已经达到这样一个阶段,我们有了大使馆,我们的商业航班正在开通,美国企业(在古巴)管理着酒店。To unwind all of that and go back to the Cold War would be a shame, former commerce secretary and Kellogg chief executive Carlos Gutierrez told the FT.放弃这一切,回到冷战状态,会令人感到惋惜,曾经担任美国商务部长的氏(Kelloggs)首席执行官卡洛斯.古铁雷斯(Carlos Gutierrez)告诉英国《金融时报》。With the backing of powerful agricultural and business lobbies Mr Obama has been pushing since 2014 for a resumption of normal relations with Cuba and in March became the first American president to visit the island in almost a century.在强大的农业和商业游说集团的持下,奥巴马自2014年以来一直在推动美国与古巴恢复正常关系,并在今年3月成为近一个世纪以来首位访问这个岛国的美国总统。In a sign of the changes under way, air carriers JetBlue and American Airlines yesterday flew their first regularly scheduled flights between New York and Havana. 改变正在发生的一个迹象是,航空公司JetBlue和美国航American Airlines)昨日开通纽约和哈瓦那之间的定期航班。There has also been a procession of business delegations to Havana, with a trip organised by the US Chamber of Commerce this month including representatives from companies such as Dow, and GE.已经有一连串商业代表团到访哈瓦那,本月美国商US Chamber of Commerce)组织的一次古巴之旅包括陶氏化Dow Chemical)和通用电气(GE)等企业的代表。But with Republicans in Congress continuing to resist calls for an end to a 55-year-old trade embargo, Mr Obama’s efforts to normalise relations with Cuba have depended on tweaks to regulations and executive orders he can implement without congressional approval.但由于国会中的共和党人继续抵制解除持5年的贸易禁运的呼吁,奥巴马恢复美国与古巴正常关系的努力依赖于无需国会批准就可实施的法规调整和行政命令。Mr Gutierrez said the result of this month’s election, which saw influential Cuban-American legislators such as Marco Rubio re-elected, meant resistance to lifting an embargo was likely to grow stronger. 古铁雷斯表示,在本月的选举结果中,马尔鲁比Marco Rubio)等有影响力的古巴裔美籍议员重新当选,意味着对解除禁运的抵制有可能变得更强。That meant Mr Trump would hold the key for a business community that wants the US to continue its efforts to open up the Cuban market.这意味着,对希望美国继续努力打开古巴市场的商界来说,特朗普掌握着钥匙。来 /201611/480542惠州市做包皮男科医院 Saudi Arabia is in a mess. That conclusion seems to be common ground the view of serious outside analysts and of the country’s own government. The only question is whether the problems can be corrected by shock treatment of the sort announced in Riyadh last week.沙特阿拉伯眼下一团糟。这个结论似乎是外界认真的分析师和沙特政府的一致看法。唯一的问题是,这些问题能否通过上周利雅得宣布的那种休克疗法得到解决。The immediate challenge is clear. Last year, revenue from oil exports fell by 23 per cent. That matters in a country that is 77 per cent dependent on oil income. Unemployment is officially 11.6 per cent, not counting the millions who hold non-jobs in and around the agencies of the state. In total, 70 per cent of Saudis work for the government. In the first half of last year, according to Mohammed al-Sheikh, the chief economic adviser to the all-powerful deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman (known universally as MbS), the kingdom’s financial reserves were being drawn down at a rate that would have exhausted them by the end of 2017 far earlier than had previously been estimated by outside authorities such as the International Monetary Fund.直接挑战显而易见。去年,来自石油出口的财政收入下3%。对于一7%的财政收入依赖于石油的国家来说,这一点关系重大。在不计算数以百万计的在政府机构内部及周边无所事事的雇员的情况下,官方失业率为11.6%。总共70%的沙特人为政府工作。去年上半年,为掌握实权的沙特副王储穆罕默德#8226;#8226;萨勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman,被普遍称为MbS)担任首席经济顾问的穆罕默德#8226;阿尔-谢赫(Mohammed al-Sheikh)表示,沙特王国的资金储备正在迅速流失,017年底就可能会彻底干涸。这比国际货币基金组IMF)等外部权威机构此前的预测要早得多。All those problems were well summed up in a note from McKinseys published at the end of last year that talked of the prospect of a rapid economic deterioration in Saudi Arabia over the next decade.麦肯McKinsey)去年底发表的一份报告很好地总结了沙特的种种问题,该报告预测了未0年沙特经济迅速恶化的前景。So radical change is needed, which brings us to the announcement last week of MbS’s Vision 2030, designed to create a modern economy free of dependence on oil. The full announcement is worth ing because it demonstrates the sheer scale of the ambition, but a few headlines will give you the flavour.因此,沙特需要大刀阔斧的改革,这就让我们回到上周沙特副王储宣布的《愿030Vision 2030)。该计划旨在打造摆脱对石油依赖的现代化经济体。整套报告值得一读,因为它展现了沙特的勃勃雄心,但是几个标题就会给你一个大致印象#8226;A stake in the state-owned oil company will be floated in an IPO within the next two years.#8226; 未来两年内,将对沙特国有石油公司的部分股权进行首次公开发行(IPO)#8226;The funds from that and other asset sales perhaps tn dollars or more will be invested in a new sovereign wealth fund to give the country a regular income from non-oil sources.#8226; 这笔IPO和出售其他资产所得——可能达万亿美元以上——将投资于一只新的主权财富基金,使国家得以从非石油类资产获得固定收入#8226;The country will be opened up to tourism.#8226; 沙特将开放旅游业#8226;Expats will be allowed to own property within Saudi Arabia.#8226; 允许外国人在沙特境内拥有房地产#8226;New small and medium-sized enterprises will be encouraged to the point where they account for 35 per cent of economic activity.#8226; 政府将鼓励创办中小型企业,目标是让这类企业占5%的经济活动#8226;Subsidies for oil, water and electricity will be progressive eliminated.#8226; 逐步取消对成品油、水和电力的补贴#8226;Unemployment will be reduced to 7 per cent#8226; 将失业率降至7%#8226;A range of new industrial sectors will be developed, including petrochemicals, manufacturing and finance on the basis of foreign investment.#8226; 依靠外资发展一系列新的产业,包括石油化工、制造业和金融业#8226;An anti-corruption drive in the Ministry of Defence will be combined with the development of a domestic military equipment business that will be capable of meeting at least half of the country’s needs.#8226; 将在国防部发起反腐运动,同时发展国内军工产业,使其至少可以满足沙特一半的军事装备需求。All this builds on a full-scale McKinsey study called “Saudi Arabia Beyond Oil which was published at the end of last year.这一切措施都建立在麦肯锡去年底发表的全面报告《沙特阿拉伯——超越石油Saudi Arabia Beyond Oil)之上。The only problem with this grand plan is that is completely unrealistic. To say, as MbS did last week, that by 2020 Saudi Arabia will no longer be dependent on oil revenue is beyond a dream. To say that the country doesn’t care whether the oil price is a barrel or is ridiculous. But the real problem is the reality when it comes to implementation. Last week’s policy statement makes no reference to any of the difficulties of delivering what is promised.这份宏伟计划的唯一问题是它完全不切实际。说沙特020年将不再依赖石油收入(就像上周副王储所说的那样),简直比梦话还要乌托邦。说沙特不在乎油价是每桶30美元还是每桶70美元,实在荒唐。但是,真正的问题在于落实这些措施时的现实。上周的政策声明压根没提到兑现这些承诺的难度。Are we really supposed to believe that Saudi Arabia can create an industry to build technically complex military equipment from a zero base?我们真的应该相信沙特可以从零开始、创建一个有能力制造先进军事装备的产业吗?Or to believe that western tourists are going to flock to a country whose laws allow people to be stoned to death for adultery or gay sex? The human rights problems are amply and regularly set out in reports from Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. How many western women will be happy to slip into a burkini for their holidays?或是相信西方游客会蜂拥来到这个依法可对通奸者或同性恋者处以石刑的国家吗?大赦国际(Amnesty International)和人权观察组Human Rights Watch)的报告中定期详细描述沙特的人权问题。有多少西方女性愿意在度假时套上穆斯林泳装“布基尼”?How is the civil service which MBS accepted last week was corrupt and inefficient to be reformed when so many of the brightest and best Saudis are happier to live and work in London or New York?在那么多最聪明最优秀的沙特人更乐于在伦敦或纽约工作生活的情况下,怎么对副王储承认腐败而低效的行政部门进行改革呢?How is Aramco to be converted into a company that can meet western standards of transparency and good governance? Will the kingdom, for instance, allow an independent external analysis of the company’s claimed oil and gas reserves?沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司(Saudi Aramco,简称沙特阿美)如何转型为达到西方透明度及优良治理标准的企业?例如,沙特王国会允许外部独立机构对该公司声称的油气储量进行分析吗?And, perhaps most important of all, how will the Saudi government break the hold ofWahhabist religious fundamentalism, something the royal family has not managed over the last century?同时,或许最重要的是,沙特政府将如何打破瓦哈比派原教旨主义的控制?过去一个世纪,沙特皇室都没能做到这一点。Without a serious analysis of the delivery process, Vision 2030 is meaningless rhetoric. The barriers to progress are not new. They have defeated every attempt to achieve change and reform made by successive Saudi governments. Promises of economic diversification, of industrial development, of education for all and of a transformation of the energy sector through the development of renewables have all ended in failure. To ignore the problems of delivery is to demonstrate the unreality of the whole approach. I hope McKinsey a firm of the highest integrity will point this out rather allowing its brand to be tarnished by association with a project that it must know cannot work.在不对改革落实过程进行认真分析的情况下,《愿030》只是毫无意义的空谈。进步的障碍并不新鲜。它们挫败了历任沙特政府推行改变和改革的所有尝试。对于经济多元化、工业发展、全民教育以及发展可再生能源以推进能源业转型的承诺,均以失败告终。忽视落实过程中面临的问题,暴露了整个思路的脱离实际。我希望麦肯锡作为一家具有最高诚信的公司指出这一点,而不是任由其招牌被它肯定知道行不通的项目玷污。The worst thing is that MbS, who is 30 and has not enjoyed the benefit of a western education with its inbuilt tone of scepticism, actually believes what he is saying and does indeed think that he can transform the country by an act of personal will. The deputy crown prince is the sort of character about whom Shakespeare could have written a great play. It would not have ended happily.最糟糕的是,这0岁、从未受过西方教育及其内在怀疑思维熏陶的副王储,实际上相信自己所说的话,真的认为他可以通过个人意志改变这个国家。他属于那种可以让莎士比亚写出一部伟大剧本的人物类型。该剧本不会以喜剧收场。It might be tempting to say that these are Saudi Arabia’s problems and that after innumerable further, and no doubt very lucrative, consultancy studies little will change and MbS will be swept away perhaps by a change of the guard after his father’s death.人们或许忍不住说,这些都是沙特的问题,在咨询机构无数次报酬丰厚的进一步研究之后,几乎什么都不会改变,副王储将被踢出历史舞台——或许是在其父亲去世、王位易主之后。That view is too narrow. Saudi Arabia matters in the region look at the damage being done in Yemen and by the wider conflict with Iran which MbS has been stoking. Provocative behaviour, driven on by economic weakness and competition for shares of the oil market, could make a bad neighbourhood even more volatile.这种观点太过狭隘。沙特在中东地区至关重要——看看也门遭受的损害,以及沙特与伊朗之间的全方位对抗(这位副王储正在火上浇油)。受经济疲软和争夺石油市场份额驱动,挑衅行为可能会让一个糟糕的地区更加动荡。And the country matters in the world, as well. Global oil consumption may be coming to its peak but it will stay at around 90 to 100mbd for a very long time. The kingdom is a crucial part of the equation and should be on the side of stability. Pretending the price doesn’t matter reflects a lack of interest or knowledge when it comes to the wider consequences of the policies being pursued.这个国家对整个世界同样举足轻重。全球石油消费可能即将见顶,但仍将在很长时期内保持在每日9000万至1亿桶水平上。沙特王国是石油供需平衡的关键组成部分,应该成为稳定的力量。假装油价无关紧要反映出,对于政策带来的更广泛的后果,某些人要么不关心、要么不懂。For Saudi Arabia, the lack of realism behind Vision 2030 can only make a messy situation worse. For those outside the kingdom, the naivity of the approach is another unwelcome source of instability and danger.对于沙特阿拉伯来说,《愿030》背后的不切实际只会让混乱的局面更加糟糕。对于沙特以外的国家来说,这种战略的幼稚是另一个不受欢迎的动荡和危险的源头。来 /201605/441909惠州市妇幼保健人民中医院男科挂号

仲恺不孕不育医院预约挂号Adding to the madness of the 2016 US presidential election is American lawyer Andrew Basiago. He claims to have traveled through time nearly all his life, and is pretty sure that he’s going to become “either president or vice presidentbetween 2016 and 2028. Polling data is obviously of little use to this guy.2016年美国总统大选又添一丝波澜,美国律师安德鲁·帕西哥宣布将参加大选。他声称自己几乎一生都在进行时空旅行,并且非常确定自己将在2016年到2028年期间成为美国总统或副总统。对于这个家伙,民意测评显然不管用了。Basiago, a Washington-based attorney, first started talking about his experience with time travel in 2004, with Project Pegasus a top secret organisation studying the effects of time travel and teleportation on children. So between 1968 and 1972, when Basiago was a young boy of seven, he claims to have participated in several experiments that transported him through time, space, and even parallel universes. His mission, supposedly, was to provide the US President at the time with important information about past and future events.华盛顿律师帕西哥004年首次谈及其时空旅行经历和飞马计划。飞马计划是一个顶尖的秘密组织,专门研究时空旅行及儿童瞬间移动。帕西哥声称968972年期间,即自七岁起便开始参与多项试验,通过时间、空间、甚至是平行空间来进行远程传输。据称,他的任务便是向当时的美国总统提供过去及未来要事的重要信息。Now, Basiago is using the ‘knowledgegained over years of time travel to further his political ambitions he’s running for president this year as an independent candidate, and is fairly confident he’s going to win. “I have prior knowledge that not only will I run for president, but that during one of the elections which would have to be between 2016 and 2028, because I’m not running past that I’m either elected president or vice president,he explained, confidently.目前,帕西哥利用其多年时空旅行所知来助推其实现政治理想,他以独立候选人身份参与今年的美国总统大选,并且深信自己将取得成功。他极为自信地解释道:“时空旅行所知显示我不仅将竞选总统,而且将在2016年到2028年期间当选为一届美国总统或副总统,因为在那之后我就不会参与竞选了。”Basiago’s greatest qualification to hold office, of course, is his first-hand information of past and future events. Basiago claims to have gone back in time to 1863 and witnessed Abraham Lincoln’s speech at Gettysburg. He’s also been to the future the year 2054 so he as an idea of the pitfalls that a president should be avoiding. Having traveled widely in time, Basiago has held conversations with President Bush, President Clinton, and President Obama decades before they were elected to office, notifying them in advance of their presidencies. More importantly, he has been to Mars in 1981, which makes for unrivaled experience in foreign relations.帕西哥有资格当选的最大杀手锏便是,掌握过去及未来要事的第一手资料。他声称,自己穿越到过去,亲眼见了亚伯拉罕·林肯总统1863年在葛底斯堡的演讲;他也曾穿越到未来,去到了2054年,因此他清楚总统应该避免的错误。帕西哥时空旅行经验丰富,在布什总统、克林顿总统、奥巴马总统当选之前便与之交谈,提前告知他们详情。更为重要的是,他曾981年抵达火星,因而在外交领域的经验无可比拟。But he’s had enough of all the secrecy now. In the all-new version of Project Pegasus that he’s leading himself, Basiago is campaigning for the US government to publicly disclose all the advances made in teleportation technology. He’s calling for truth, reform, and innovation, which would benefit humanity as a whole and make transportation across the Earth and beyond instantaneous as well as environment friendly.目前,他已经掌握了足够多的秘密。飞马计划的最新说法是,帕西哥正孤军奋战,发动美国政府公开其在远程传输技术方面取得的所有成就。他提倡真相、改革及革新,这些都将造福于整个人类社会,而且远程传输在进行瞬息跨地传物时并不会对环境造成伤害。Basiago has lashed out at President Obama in particular, accusing him of lying and betrayal. He claims that as a teenager, Obama served as a fellow ‘chrononauton the Mars mission in the 0s, but has disclosed nothing about it to the American public. Basiago calls this “literally lying, to deny the involvement of a set of Americans who put their lives at risk at a very young age, doing what their country asked of them.This, he believes, is telling of the “calculating, shallow opportunismof the nation’s current leadership.帕西哥痛斥美国总统奥巴马,指责其否认参与该计划。他声称,奥巴马十几岁时就曾乘时光机抵达火星执行任务,但其却未向美国公众披露此次计划。帕西哥称,“他否认参与数项实验,这完全就是在撒谎。这些实验参与者幼年时期便要冒生命危险,按美国政府要求来执行任务。”他表示,这些足以明美国当前领导人步步心机,眼光浅薄。Not wanting to keep things under wraps anymore, Basiago has offered a rudimentary explanation of teleportation technology himself. He claims that the devices they use have “quantum access capabilityand can be divided into two categories one that enables physical teleportation to the past or future, and another that creates a hologram to serve as a looking-glass into a specific time or place without actually being there. Physical teleportation, he claims, was developed using the papers left behind by Nikola Tesla, after his death in 1943. ‘Chronovision on the other hand, was invented by two Vatican musicologists and later passed on to the US government by Rome.帕西哥不愿再死守秘密,解释了远程传物的基本原理。他声称,时光机具备“量子接入能力”,可分为两部分,一部分能够进行过去或未来的物理远程传输,另一部分则是通过一个类似镜子的全息图景来进入到本就存在的特定时空。他表示,根据尼古拉·特斯943年去世后遗留下来的资料,物理远程传输得以实现。另外,“时光机”由两个梵蒂冈音乐学家发明,后经罗马传到美国政府手中。These technologies have apparently been around for a long time, but according to Basiago, US scientists advised the government to hide them from the public because they could potentially erase entire industries and jobs that are focused around existing transportation methods. But Basiago disagrees. “Knowing about these things will allow the public to understand and participate in the advancement of new technologies,he said.显然,这些技术由来已久,但据帕西哥所述,真相一旦公布,按现有的传输方法运作的所有产业和职位可能都将消亡,因此美国科学家建议政府对公众隐瞒此事。然而,帕西哥不同意此说法,他称,“公众了解这些便能够理解新技术革新并且参与其中”。So there you have it, if neither Hillary nor Trump seem like US President material to you, or if you simply always wanted to travel through time and space, Andrew Basiago is your man.你要知道,如果希拉里和特朗普都不是你的菜,又或者你只是想体验时空旅行,那么安德鲁·帕西哥就是你的最佳总统人选。来 /201605/444158 For many Chinese, the US elections were being depicted as a test of the virtues of the American model of democracy. 对于许多中国人,美国大选被描绘成一场对美式民主优越性的考验。The process became an easy target for Beijing’s propagandists to illustrate what they see as a flawed political system, with its internal divisions and a costly, time-consuming election that yielded two candidates both judged untrustworthy by the majority of American voters. 美国的选举过程成了中国宣传者的一个轻而易举的靶子,可以暴露他们所称的一种有缺陷的政治制度,不但内部分裂,还搞出昂贵耗时的选举程序,结果却产生被大多数美国选民评判为都不可信任的两名候选人。But as unexpected as the outcome was for the Chinese, there is an old saying: Be careful what you wish for. 但是,无论选举结果多么出乎中国人意料,正如老话说,小心你想要什么。Donald Trump’s victory may have pleased those Hillary Clinton regrettably referred to during the campaign as the basket of deplorables but what Beijing really wanted was more nuanced.唐纳特朗Donald Trump)的胜利可能取悦那些被希拉克林Hillary Clinton)在竞选期间遗憾地称为一群可怜虫的人,但北京方面真正想要的是更为微妙的东西。The Chinese public was evenly split between Mrs Clinton and Mr Trump in pre-election surveys but their counterparts in other east Asian countries overwhelmingly favoured Mrs Clinton. 在选前调查中,中国公众对希拉里和特朗普的态度是对半分的,而他们的东亚邻居们大多持希拉里。For China, Mrs Clinton was a known product but seen as personally antagonistic towards the country; Mr Trump was an unknown product but as a businessman was judged, rightly or wrongly, less likely to get involved in China’s internal or external affairs.对中国而言,希拉里是个已知产物,但认为她对中国持敌对态度;特朗普是个未知产物,但作为一个商人,他被评判为(无论对错)不太可能插手中国的内部或外部事务。For officials dealing with the US, the choice depended on whether one viewed the relationship through an economic or a geostrategic prism. 对于要与美国打交道的官员,选择取决于此人是通过经济视角,还是地缘政治视角来看待中美关系。For three decades, Beijing’s primary concern was sustaining rapid and stable economic growth and the avoidance of external conflict. 30年来,中国政府的首要关切是保持快速、稳定的经济增长,避免外部冲突。This was facilitated by America’s open trade and investment policies and the comfort blanket given by a military presence that moderated tensions and deterred regional conflicts. 为此创造条件的是美国的开放贸易和投资政策,以及美国军事存在所提供的安全感——美国的军事存在缓和了紧张局势,阻止了地区冲突。This clearly benefited China.中国显然受益匪浅。The factors that shaped this environment, however, have changed over the past decade. 然而塑造这一环境的因素在过去10年发生了变化。China’s rise as an economic power has led to more assertive policies to establish what Beijing calls a new kind of great power relations that has altered its geostrategic objectives. 中国崛起为经济强国,随之带来更为强硬的政策,希望建立北京方面所称的新型大国关系,这意味着中国改变了其地缘战略目标。For the leadership, the choices are now more complex.对于中国领导人,现在的选择更为复杂。Despite the characteristically ambiguous official statements, those at the helm of the party-state had strong views about both candidates. 尽管其官方声明一如既往地模棱两可,但这个党国的掌权者对两位总统候选人都有强烈观点。Mrs Clinton’s perceived predictability and pragmatism were viewed in the context of her seemingly aggressive views on ideological issues such as democracy and human rights as well as her support for a strong US role in providing the security architecture underpinning the pivot back to Asia. 在中方眼里,看待希拉里的可预见性和务实,要放在这样一个背景下,即她对民主和人权等意识形态问题抱有貌似咄咄逼人的观点,以及她持美国在提供撑重返亚洲战略的安全架构方面扮演强大角色。This assertiveness, coupled with her record of criticising China as first lady, senator and then secretary of state, led Beijing to view a Clinton presidency as a credible threat to Chinese interests.希拉里的这种强硬态度,加上她作为第一夫人、参议员和国务卿时批评中国的记录,让北京方面认为希拉里若当选,将对中国的利益构成可信威胁。Mr Trump’s candidacy was more complicated. 特朗普这个候选人则更加复杂。His public statements on trade and investment relations with Beijing were even harsher than Mrs Clinton’s and featured more centrally in his election platform. 他对于美中贸易和投资关系的公开言论比希拉里更加刺耳,而且这些问题在他的竞选平台上占据更为中心的位置。He had consistently placed much of the blame for America’s economic malaise squarely on China’s shoulders. 他一再将美国的经济不景气大半归咎于中囀?And his threat to impose a 45 per cent tariff on imported Chinese goods inspired China’s finance minister publicly to call Mr Trump an irrational type.他威胁要对中国输美商品征5%的关税,令中国财政部长公开称特朗普属于不理性的那类人。Thus, many of Beijing’s economic authorities were in favour of Mrs Clinton rather than the Republican to continue the dialogue with the Obama administration on trade and investment issues. 因此,中国政府经济部门的许多人持希拉里而不是特朗普,以继续中国与奥巴马政府关于贸易和投资问题的对话。However, Beijing is used to the ritual of US presidential candidates competing to show who can be tougher on China, yet after the elections taking a more conciliatory approach so who won would probably not matter.不过,北京已习惯了美国总统候选人的套路:在竞选期间争着表现谁能对中国更强硬,但在当选后会采取比较和缓的姿态,因此谁赢了很可能并不重要。What will happen with the US China dialogue on trade and foreign investment issues is uncertain. 美中关于贸易和外国投资问题的对话将如何发展是个未知数。The Trans-Pacific Partnership, which was being sold tactically by the Obama administration as a means to stop China from setting the trade agenda, would ironically seem less likely to be ratified now given Mr Trump’s views on trade. 奥巴马政府曾战术性地兜售《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定TPP),作为阻止中国制定贸易议程的一种手段;具有讽刺意味的是,鉴于特朗普对贸易的观点,TPP似乎不太可能获得批准。He may find the Bilateral Investment Treaty under negotiation a more attractive vehicle to engage Beijing given his claims that China’s investment regime has not been fair to American companies. 考虑到他声称中国的投资制度对美国企业不公平,他可能会觉得正在谈判的双边投资条Bilateral Investment Treaty)是接触北京的更有吸引力的工具。The reality is that liberalisation would be in the interests of both sides.现实是自由化将符合双方利益。For China’s top leadership, however, what matters more are the geostrategic implications. 然而,对于中国的最高领导层,更重要的是地缘战略影响。Some see a Trump victory as a chance to realign the regional balance of power in favour of China. 有些人认为特朗普的胜利是一个机会,可以让区域力量均衡朝着有利于中国的方向调整。The latter’s perceived aggressiveness in East Asia has elevated the potential for maritime conflicts stemming from the island disputes; a US president-elect who reportedly considers most of his country’s allies as free riders who do nothing to contribute to US national security may mean an America less inclined to intervene in regional affairs. 后者在世人眼中在东亚的挑衅行为,已经提高了因岛屿争端引发海上冲突的可能性;而据报道认为绝大多数盟国都在搭便车、对美国国家安全毫无贡献的特朗普入主白宫,可能意味着美国不那么倾向于干预地区事务。If so, key players such as Japan and South Korea may decide to go their own way in developing a nuclear capability. 如果是这样,日本和韩国等关键大国可能会决定自行发展核武能力。And the Asean nations might seek to accommodate China’s regional interests even more than the recent visits to Beijing of the heads of state of the Philippines and Malaysia have signalled.东盟国家可能寻求迁就中国的地区利益,其身段之柔软,甚至会超过近期菲律宾和马来西亚国家元首访问北京所传递的信号。While all this could mean a geopolitical opening for China to increase its presence in the region, it could also lead to a downward spiral of protectionist economic policies and a rearming of protagonists in which there are no winners. 虽然这一切可能意味着中国获得一个地缘政治突破口,能够加大自己在地区的存在,但这也可能带来保护主义经济政策的螺旋式下降,以及一场没有赢家的区域军备竞赛。Only history will reveal whether Beijing got what it wished for.只有历史才能展示北京方面是否如愿以偿。来 /201611/479504惠州中医院看男科怎么样博罗治疗龟头炎多少钱

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