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More than 1m Chinese will go on a cruise holiday this year — nearly five times as many as in 2012 — a statistic that has whipped the global industry into a record expansion of ship orders and a collective decision to sail the world’s largest and most luxurious mega-vessels eastward.今年,将有100万以上的中国人乘坐邮轮度假——较2012年增加近4倍——这一数字促使全球邮轮业创下了新增船舶订单记录,同时使得邮轮公司纷纷作出决定,将全球最大最豪华的巨型邮轮驶向东方。But the optimism of the cruise companies may be outpacing the reality of the Chinese boom: travel agents have had to deeply discount in order to fill some new ships.但是,邮轮公司对中国邮轮旅游热的乐观预期或许超前于现实了:旅行社得打极低折扣才能保一些新邮轮的入住率。Ship brokers tracking the past two decades of market activity say that in recent months, global cruise ship investment has entered a new phase. But that observation comes with warnings from the past — explosive expansions of the cruise order book in 1999 and 2006 were followed by equally spectacular busts.追踪了该行业过去二十年市场活动的船舶经纪商称,最近几个月,全球邮轮投资进入了一个新阶段。但与此同时,过去的经验也向我们发出了警告——1999年和2006年邮轮订单爆炸性增长后,都曾出现惨烈的订单萎缩。The traditional market will continue to depend on the retirement spending of baby boomers in the west but the growth outlook will be shaped by an Asian middle class bursting to spend their money and comparatively short vacations at sea. The question this time is whether the establishment of new Chinese brands and the development of Asian ports will make for a less bust-prone pattern.传统市场将继续依赖于西方婴儿潮一代退休人士的出,但是该行业的增长前景将由渴望把钱和相对较短的假期花在海上的亚洲中产阶级决定。眼下的问题是,中国新品牌的创建和亚洲港口的开发是否将有助于创建一种不那么容易破灭的发展模式。After an unprecedented 50 per cent year-on-year surge of orders in 2015, the market is expected to add an additional 146,000 passenger berths by 2020.在2015年订单前所未有地同比大增50%之后,预计到2020年该市场将增加14.6万个铺位。North American and European passengers account for 85 per cent of the global cruise market of 22m passengers a year. But the signals of change are clear.北美和欧洲乘客占据着全球邮轮市场每年2200万乘客的85%。但是,如今已经出现了明显的改变信号。The Chinese government has thrown its weight behind the cruise industry and expects that 4.5m of its citizens will be taking a cruise each year by 2020. A more conservative prediction from Morgan Stanley, the investment bank, is for 3m annual passengers, or 10 per cent of the market.中国政府持邮轮业发展,它预计到2020年,每年将有450万中国人乘坐邮轮。投行根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)所做的较为保守的预测是,中国每年将有300万人乘坐邮轮,占全球邮轮市场的10%。In South Korea and Japan, which are a few days’ sea voyage from Shanghai and Tianjin, local ports are racing to expand their facilities to accommodate the new class of mega-ships, which could carry more than 6,000 passengers.在韩国和日本(从上海和天津出发,走海路只需几天就能到达),各地方港口正竞相扩建基础设施,以容纳可搭载逾6000名乘客的新型巨轮。The major cruise companies, led by Carnival and Royal Caribbean, which together account for 80 per cent of the Chinese market, have begun sending new vessels to be permanently based in the east and fitted out with more shopping, more casinos and enclosed sun decks to tailor to local needs.以嘉年华公司(Carnival)和皇家加勒比邮轮集团(Royal Caribbean)——两家公司总共占据了中国市场80%的份额——为首的主要邮轮公司,已经开始派遣新邮轮常驻东方,同时配备了更多的购物场所、以及封闭式日光浴场以满足当地需求。Last week, Carnival doubled the number of its cruise brands in China to four, with two new ships arriving by 2017. Arnold Donald, chief executive, says the company wanted to offer “choice and variety” to match “the different tastes and preferences of Chinese travellers”.日前,嘉年华公司将其在中国的邮轮品牌增加一倍至4个,到2017年还将有2艘新邮轮抵达中国。其首席执行官阿诺德唐纳德(Arnold Donald)称,该公司希望提供“多种多样的选择”,以满足“中国旅客不同的品味和偏好”。He adds that Carnival may also launch a joint venture with the China State Shipbuilding Corporation and China Merchants Group to build a domestic Chinese cruise brand.他补充称,嘉年华可能还将与中国船舶工业集团公司(China State Shipbuilding Corporation)和中国招商局集团(China Merchants Group)共同创办一家合资企业,来打造中国本土邮轮品牌。Royal Caribbean has sent its most advanced ships to China, complete with high-speed internet, smart bracelets for payments, a 300ft high viewing pod, robot bartenders, a rock climbing wall, bumper cars and a skydiving wind tunnel, in order to appeal to every generation of Chinese families.皇家加勒比已经将其最先进的邮轮派往中国,船上配有高速网络、智能付手环、300英尺高的摇臂观景舱、机器人调酒师、攀岩墙、碰碰车以及可玩甲板跳伞的垂直风洞,以吸引中国家庭中各代人的兴趣。The clearest evidence of the shift, say researchers at the UK-based brokerage Clarksons, has been orders for cruise ships hitting an all-time high. The worldwide order-book as of September 1 stands at 41 ships, with a combined value of about bn. Once financing and technical issues are settled on orders placed by Celebrity, Virgin, MSC and Crystal — probably within the next few months — the total will jump to 51.总部位于英国的船舶经纪商Clarksons的研究员称,这一转变最明显的据是邮轮订单创下历史新高。截至9月1日,全球邮轮订单量为41艘,总价值约为260亿美元。一旦精致邮轮(Celebrity)、维珍邮轮(Virgin)、地中海邮轮(MSC)、水晶邮轮(Crystal)所下订单的融资和技术问题得以解决——很可能在未来数月内解决——全球邮轮订单总数将增至51艘。In the southern Japanese town of Fukuoka — a destination that has proven popular as a destination for Chinese shoppers — the port operator is lobbying the central Japanese government to allow it to extend the jetties by an additional 330 metres to accommodate the new Oasis class of cruise ship. Of the 1m Chinese forecast to take a cruise some time in 2015, about a quarter called at Fukuoka. A year ago, the port received 99 cruise ships; this year it will receive 251.在日本南部的福冈——受到中国购物者喜爱的目的地——港口运营商正游说日本中央政府允许其将码头额外扩宽330米,以容纳新型绿洲级邮轮。预计2015年将有100万中国游客搭乘邮轮,其中约有四分之一的人停靠福冈。一年前,该港口接待了99艘邮轮;而今年将接待251艘。Gianni Onorato, chief executive of Switzerland-based MSC Cruises, warned that the pace of investment might not be rapid enough.总部位于瑞士的地中海邮轮的首席执行官詹尼攠诺拉托(Gianni Onorato)警告称,投资速度或许还不够快。“For sure there will be these millions of Chinese taking a cruise. The main challenge is about not so much the development of ports and destinations inside China, but outside of China,” he says. “Because of the geography it depends on Japan and Korea and so far no one is seeing the same speed of development.”“肯定将会有数百万中国游客搭乘邮轮。主要的挑战不在于中国国内港口和旅游目的地的开发,而在于中国以外的,”他称,“由于地理位置的关系,这将取决于日本和韩国在这方面的开发,而到目前为止这两个国家还没有出现同样的开发速度。”Relying on China is also a potentially risky strategy. Several ships had to cancel their cruises to South Korea, one of a handful of key destinations, after an outbreak of the Mers virus this year. And the anti-Japan riots of 2012 caused havoc with itineraries. Royal Caribbean did not visit any Japanese ports during spring and summer 2013.依靠中国市场也是一个存在潜在风险的策略。今年在MERS疫情爆发后,一些邮轮不得不取消其前往韩国(为数不多的主要目的地之一)的行程。而2012年的反日风波严重影响了部分邮轮的行程。2013年春夏两季,皇家加勒比的邮轮没有停靠过任何一个日本港口。Another big challenge, however, will be adapting their offering to the Chinese tastes. Mr Onorato, for example, pointed out that food is a key part of Chinese culture but consumers take a different approach to their western counterparts. “There is no clear separation of breakfast, lunch and dinner,” he says, adding that the company is partnering with leading chefs to modify its food service.然而,另一个重大挑战将是如何提供符合中国人喜好的务。例如,奥诺拉托指出,吃是中国文化的关键组成部分,但是中国消费者的餐饮习惯又与西方人不同。“中国的早餐、午餐和完成没有明显的区分,”他表示,并补充称地中海邮轮正在与中国顶尖的厨师合作调整其餐饮务。Mr Onorato adds that MSC is creating a new position of “cruise ambassador”, a person who would act as a “tutor of small groups of customers” and accompany them throughout a trip. The company is “working now with two main partners for sourcing of crew and training”.奥诺拉托补充道,地中海邮轮正在打造“游轮使者”的全新职位——使者们将“指导和照顾一组组顾客”,全程陪伴他们。该公司如今有“两个主要合作伙伴,帮助它招聘人员和开展培训”。 /201510/404920

Thousands of people protested against the election of Donald Trump in cities around the US on Wednesday night, in a sign of the deeply divided country he will soon lead.周三晚上,数以千计的人们在全美国多个城市举行了抗议活动,抗议唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)当选,显示出后者不久将领导的这个国家出现了深层次分歧。A multicultural crowd of a few thousand protesters marched 40 blocks to Trump Tower, where garbage trucks surrounded the building where Mr Trump lives, chanting not my president, love trumps hate and black lives matter. 一个由几千名抗议人士组成的多元文化的人群,喊着这不是我的总统(not my president)、爱压过恨(love trumps hate)和黑人很重要(black lives matter)等口号,游行了40个街区走到特朗普大厦(Trump Tower)。Protesters also chanted against Mr Trump’s plans for a wall.在这里,特朗普居住的大楼已被人用垃圾回收卡车包围起来。There were also further protests, including in Chicago; Washington; Portland, Oregon; St Paul, Minnesota; New Orleans and Boston. 其他地方也发生了抗议活动,其中包括芝加哥、华盛顿、俄勒冈州的波特兰市、明尼苏达州的圣保罗市、新奥尔良及波士顿。There was a small protest earlier in the day in San Francisco, with a much larger protest in the evening, with hundreds of people marching briskly up Market Street, the city’s main thoroughfare. 当天早些时候,旧金山曾出现小规模抗议活动,而夜间的抗议活动规模则大了许多,有数百人在该市主干道市场街(Market Street)上快速行进。The group was a broad mix including students, LGBT campaigners and parents with young children. 抗议人群的身份来源广泛,有学生,有LGBT(女同性恋者、男同性恋者、双性恋者与跨性别者)活动人士,还有带着年幼子女的父母。Some chanted Donald Trump has to go and its equivalents in Spanish while others walked along in tears. 部分人喊着唐纳德.特朗普必须下台及对应的西班牙语口号,其他人则流着眼泪走过。 /201611/477637

China’s growing debt mountain poses a risk to Australia’s financial stability, a senior politician has warned, 一位资深政治人士警告称,中国不断增加的巨额债务对澳大利亚的金融稳定构成了风险。just weeks after the continent celebrated a quarter century of growth without a recession.就在几周之前,澳大利亚刚刚庆祝了自己长达四分之一个世纪的不间断增长(其间未出现过一次衰退)。China is Australia’s largest trading partner, accounting for A0bn of two-way trade in 2015. 中国是澳大利亚的最大贸易伙伴,2015年澳大利亚对华进出口总额达到1500亿澳元。Beijing is also an important foreign investor in Australia, leaving Canberra potentially among the developed nations most exposed to a Chinese downturn. 中国还是澳大利亚重要的外商投资来源,这让澳大利亚成为受中国经济下行影响最严重的发达国家之一。China’s growing debt in its local government and state-owned enterprise sector were potential vulnerabilities that could end up having an impact on the continent, Scott Morrison, Australian treasurer, said in an interview with the Financial Times.澳大利亚财长斯科特.莫里森(Scott Morrison,上图)在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示,中国地方政府和国有企业部门不断增加的债务是潜在的隐患,最终可能会对澳大利亚造成冲击。We are not rose-coloured-glasses optimists about China, Mr Morrison said. 我们不是戴着玫瑰色眼镜看待中国的乐观主义者,莫里森说, We have a practical and real appreciation about what some of their vulnerabilities are. 我们对中国的一些隐患有切实和深入的了解。Australia’s warning on Chinese debt follows concerns expressed by the International Monetary Fund and others, including billionaire George Soros, 在澳大利亚就中国债务发出警告之前,国际货币基金组织(IMF)和包括亿万富翁乔治.索罗斯(George Soros)在内的其他各方也就这个问题表示了担忧。who have warned that adverse shocks in China fuelled by its rising debt levels could spark contagion and hit countries with a high trade exposure to the country. 他们警告称,债务水平不断上升加剧了中国面临的不利冲击,这种冲击可能导致问题扩散,令与中国贸易关系密切的国家遭受打击。Recent figures showing China’s economy grew 6.7 per cent in the three months to end September suggested there was no immediate risk, Mr Morrison said, 莫里森表示,近期数据显示第三季度中国经济增长了6.7%,这表明没有迫在眉睫的风险。adding that it was important for Canberra to consolidate its budget deficit in the next five years to build up resilience. 他补充道,对于澳大利亚而言,重要的是在未来五年里整固预算赤字,以增强韧性。I am not forecasting any change in China but we are very practically minded of the vulnerabilities and what that could convert into — but equally saying they have the capacity to manage it, he said. 我不是在预测中国会出现任何变化,但我们对中国的隐患以及这些隐患可能演变成的局面绝不掉以轻心——但平心而论,他们有能力搞定,他表示。Mr Morrison said Australia needed to build up its economic resilience to ensure continued prosperity in the face of external shocks. 莫里森表示,澳大利亚需要增强其经济韧性,以确保在面对外部冲击时继续保持繁荣。He said the government would tackle its budget deficit and promote lower taxes in a bid to boost private demand and build up resilience. 他表示,政府将解决预算赤字,并推动减税,以提振私人部门需求和增强韧性。In a recent speech in Sydney Mr Morrison said it was also important to reinforce and build on the strength of Australia’s banking and financial sector.莫里森最近在悉尼的一次演讲中表示,加强和巩固澳大利亚和金融部门的实力,也是很重要的。Australia’s economy is growing at an annual rate of 3.3 per cent of gross domestic product, among the highest in the developed world, 目前,澳大利亚国内生产总值(GDP)的年增长率为3.3%,是发达世界中增长最快的经济体之一。and has notched up a remarkable quarter of a century of growth without a recession.而且,澳大利亚实现了长达四分之一个世纪的不间断增长(其间未发生一次衰退),令人瞩目。Surging exports to China have played a key role in enabling its economy to continue growing even during the financial crisis in 2008, 澳大利亚对华出口的不断飙升,对澳经济哪怕在2008年金融危机期间都得以持续增长起到了关键作用。when many other countries faltered. 2008年金融危机期间,很多国家都陷入了低迷。Growth has remained robust despite a slump in commodities prices over the past five years. 尽管过去五年大宗商品价格暴跌,但澳大利亚一直维持着强劲的增长。A great strength of the Australian economy is that it is so flexible and adapts to the challenges we have, said Mr Morrison, 莫里森指出,澳大利亚的贸易条件指数(terms of trade,衡量一国出口对进口的相对价值)已经比巅峰时跌去逾30%。who noted that the country’s terms of trade, a measure of the relative value of exports compared with imports, have fallen more than 30 per cent from their peak. 他表示:澳大利亚经济的一大强项在于,它非常有弹性,能适应我们面临的挑战。Mr Morrison also sounded a warning that record-low interest rates are proving counterproductive in Australia and elsewhere, while rejecting fears a housing bubble is developing in Sydney and Melbourne. 莫里森还警告称,创纪录的低利率在澳大利亚和其他地区事实上起到了反作用,同时他驳斥了关于悉尼和墨尔本正在形成房地产泡沫的担忧。Since the start of the year, house prices in Sydney and Melbourne have surged 13 per cent and 10 per cent respectively, according to data from Corelogic. 据Corelogic的数据显示,自今年初以来,悉尼和墨尔本的房地产价格分别飙涨13%和10%。There isn’t one housing market in Australia, there are hundreds of housing markets and to make generalisations is dangerous. 澳大利亚不止有一个房地产市场,这里有成百上千个房地产市场,一概而论是危险的。It would be a mistake to think those [Sydney and Melbourne] were not sound, he said. 认为那些市场(悉尼和墨尔本)不健康是错误的,他称,It is hard to make an argument that where house prices are is a function of speculative, finance-driven investment. 这些地方的房价是健康的,说这些地方的房价是被融资驱动的投机活动抬高的很难站得住脚。What that means is the housing debt is underpinned by real asset values. 我这样说的意思是,房地产债务是有实际资产价值作撑的。However, he said there are real housing affordability challenges in Australia for those people seeking to get on to the housing ladder. 然而,他表示,目前澳大利亚的房价确实让那些想要购房的无房者难以承受。He said increases in housing supply over coming years would see price growth moderate. 他称,未来几年住房供应增加将让房价上涨降温。Mr Morrison signalled he did not feel that Australian interest rates should be cut beyond their current record low level of 1.5 per cent.莫里森表示,他不认为澳大利亚应该进一步削减利率——目前的1.5%已经是创纪录低点。Monetary policy has exhausted its influence, he said. 货币政策的作用已经发挥到头了,他称,Lower rates have led people to save more, to pay down and offset their debts, rather than necessarily going out and spending in the economy, he said. 降息已经导致人们为偿还和抵消债务而增加储蓄,而不是出去进行必要的出。As that has increased over time, the impact of interest rate cuts has on each occasion eroded. 随着这种情况逐渐加剧,降息的效果一次不如一次。Mr Morrison said loosening monetary policy on a global scale was only bringing forward demand while the real challenge for advanced economies is to facilitate increased private demand. 莫里森称,全球范围内的货币政策放松只是把需求提前,而发达经济体面临的现实挑战是促进私人部门需求提高。That is why we are so keen on tax arrangements that support investment, he said. 这正是我们急切地想要推出持投资的税务安排的原因,他表示。Mr Morrison’s plan to slash corporate tax rates in Australia from 30 to 25 per cent over the next 10 years is likely to be blocked by parliament. 莫里森计划在未来10年将澳大利亚的企业所得税率从30%降至25%,但该计划可能会被议会否决。 /201611/475314

China#39;s ride-sharing industry has been growing fast in recent years. The largest service there is Didi Chuxing.中国共乘行业近年来增长迅猛,该国最大的共乘务商是滴滴出行。Uber, the American-based service, was Didi#39;s main competitor until August, when it signed a deal to sell its Chinese operations to Didi. The deal is worth about billion.总部位于美国的优步一直是滴滴的主要竞争对手,直到八月份该公司签署协议将中国业务出售给了滴滴。这笔交易价值约为350亿美元。China officially legalized car-sharing services in July. At that time, the Ministry of Transport established rules for such services. Those rules are set to take effect in November.中国于7月份正式将汽车共乘务合法化。当时,中国交通部为这类务制订了规定,这些规定将于11月生效。Now, local governments in a number of Chinese cities have begun proposing their own rules. The proposals would set restrictions on the kinds of vehicles that can be used and who can drive them.现在,中国很多城市的地方政府已经开始提出当地的规定。这些提案可能会对车型以及司机做出严格限制。The main requirement is that drivers of ride-sharing services and their vehicles be registered. In big cities like Beijing and Shanghai, this means drivers will need to have a permanent household registration. In other cities, such as Shenzhen and Hangzhou, drivers will be required to have a temporary home. In addition, the registered vehicles would have to be sedan models with larger-than-average space inside.主要要求是共乘务的的司机和车辆必须登记。在北京和上海这样的大城市,这意味着司机必须具有常住户口。在深圳和杭州等其它城市,司机必须拥有临时住所。此外,注册车辆必须是内部空间大于平均尺寸的轿车车型。Didi criticized the local rules in a recent statement. The company said they would force ;the vast majority; of its drivers and cars off the road.滴滴在最近的一份声明中批评了这些地方规定。该公司表示,这些规定会迫使绝该公司大多数司机和车辆不能上路。;Millions of online ride-sharing drivers may be about to lose their jobs and paychecks, which would mean millions of families may lose an important income source,; the statement said, according to The Wall Street Journal.根据华尔街日报报道,该声明称,“数百万网络共乘司机可能即将失去他们的工作和收入,这也就意味着数百万家庭可能会失去一项重要的收入来源。”All in all, the local restrictions would be a lot like those for taxi drivers.总而言之,这类地方限制跟出租车司机面临的限制会有很多相似点。Zhao Zhanling is a researcher at the Intellectual Property Center of China University of Political Science and Law. He told VOA the new rules could make all the country#39;s ride-sharing services fail. He said the vehicle size requirements alone could put 80 to 90 percent of drivers out of business.赵占领是中国政法大学知识产权中心的研究员。他对美国之音表示,新规定可能会让中国所有共乘务公司倒闭。他说,单是车辆尺寸要求就会使80%到90%的司机出局。According to Didi, less than 10,000 of its 410,000 drivers in Shanghai would meet the permanent household requirement.滴滴公司表示,该公司在上海的41万名司机中,只有1万名司机满足常住户口的要求。One Uber driver told VOA the way the new laws are set up will make it ;impossible for me to stay in business.; The driver#39;s hometown is near Beijing, in Hebei province. He now works in the Chinese capital during the day and drives for Uber at night.一位优步司机对美国之音表示,这么立法将会使得他没法干了。这名司机家在北京附近的河北省。他目前白天在北京上班,晚上跑优步。Zhao Zhanling called the permanent household requirement ;unconstitutional; and ;in violation of the nation#39;s employment policy.;赵占领称常住户口要求“违宪”,并且“违反国家的就业政策。”Didi has said ride-sharing services are still new ;technological creations; that need to be nurtured.滴滴称共乘务仍然是需要培养的新的技术创新。The company called on Chinese officials to ;give local and non-local residence-holders equal rights to work.; It said this will be the only way to provide citizens a more convenient, effective and free transportation system.该公司呼吁中国官员“赋予当地和非当地居民平等的工作权”。滴滴公司说,这将是为市民提供一种更方便、有效、畅通的交通体系的唯一途径。 /201610/471779


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