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2019年08月21日 03:52:40|来源:国际在线|编辑:120助手
Reforming China’s state-owned firms改革中国的国有企业From SOE to GLC从国有企业到国联企业China’s rulers look to Singapore for tips on portfolio management中国领导人指望得到新加坡关于投资组合管理的指点Nov 23rd 2013 | HONG KONG |From the print editionSHORTLY before his confirmation as China’s “paramount leader” in 1978, Deng Xiaoping paid a visit to fast-growing Singapore. He planted a tree on a hill overlooking Jurong, a bustling industrial park built on what was once marshy wasteland close to the city-state’s harbour. Singapore’s success as a trading hub impressed Deng, who imposed his vision of economic reform on China’s Communist Party the following month, at an historic meeting known as the “third plenum”.1978年,邓小平被任命为中国“最高领导人”前夕,他对高速发展的新加坡进行了访问。他在俯瞰裕廊的一座山上种植了一棵树,裕廊是建于城市港口附近的一个蓬勃发展的工业园区,那里曾经是一个不毛之地。新加坡成功成为一个贸易枢纽给邓小平留下了深刻的印象,他在访问新加坡后的一个月,在那个具有历史意义的“三中全会”上,向中国共产党提出了有关经济改革的设想。Singapore, which has a population of 5m to China’s 1.35 billion, remains a source of inspiration for some Chinese reformers. On the eve of the latest third plenum, held earlier this month, the Development Research Centre (DRC), a government think-tank, advertised an ambitious set of reform proposals, including an overhaul of China’s inefficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Simply privatising these companies remains out of the question for China’s leaders. But there are alternatives, and Singapore provides one.对于中国一些改革家来说,拥有500万人口的新加坡与拥有13.5亿人口的中国相比,仍然具有激励作用。本月初期举行的十八届三中全会前夕,政府智囊团国务院发展研究中心公布了一系列雄心勃勃的改革提议,包括彻底改革中国低效国有企业。仅仅将这些企业私有化对中国领导人来说是不可能的。但是他们还有其他选择,新加坡就提供了一个选项。The DRC’s plan named Temasek, a holding company for SOEs in Singapore, as a potential model. It was created in 1974, when it inherited 35 companies from the finance ministry. Its inaugural portfolio contained several of the firms that made Jurong eye-catching, including its shipyard and its birdpark (pictured). In the four decades since, Temasek’s portfolio has both multiplied (it is now worth S5 billion, or 2 billion) and gone forth: only 30% of its holdings remain in Singapore itself. Its domestic holdings are concentrated in what Singapore calls “government-linked companies” (GLCs), such as Singapore Airlines (of which it owns 56%) and SingTel, a telecoms company (52%).国务院发展研究中心计划把新加坡国有企业控股公司淡马锡公司作为一个可能的模型。淡马锡公司成立于1974年,它从新加坡财政部手中接手了35家国有企业。它成立的投资组合包括几个使得裕廊引人注目的公司,包括其造船厂和飞禽公园(如图)。从那时起后四十年,裕廊的投资组合不仅迅速增加(它现在价值2150亿新加坡币,约合1720亿美元),还不断发展:只有30%的控股还在新加坡手上。其国内股份集中在新加坡称为“国联企业”手中,例如新加坡航空(控股56%),电信公司SingTel(52%)。Temasek’s charter obliges it to increase the value of its holdings over the long term. This is a remarkably simple aim compared with the Chinese government’s manifold ambitions. It wants its holdings to promote technological progress, favoured industries and national security, among other things.淡马锡公司的章程迫使他们在长期增加他们股份的价值。这相对于中国政府各种各样的雄心壮志来说明显是一个简单明确的目标。此外,他们还希望他们的股份能推进技术进步,推动中意的工业发展和国家安全。As well as clarifying objectives, the Temasek model also allows the state to distance itself from the management of its enterprises, without relinquishing ownership. Temasek avoids meddling in the day-to-day running of the GLCs in its portfolio, which are free to hire professional managers at market rates. With a few exceptions, it does not directly appoint board members either. This is partly because it does not want to become privy to price-sensitive information that might limit its ability to trade shares.除了阐明目标以外,淡马锡模型还准许国家在不放弃所有权的情况下,拉开自己与企业管理的距离。淡马锡模型避免了对国联企业投资组合日常管理的干预,这样可以随意以市场价雇佣专业的管理人才。除了几个例外,淡马锡公司也不直接任命董事会成员。这样做部分原因是因为它不想获准接触那些可能会限制其自身交易股份能力的价格敏感的信息。Temasek has evolved into an active investor, but not an activist one, says Stephen Forshaw, its chief spokesman. Although it does not appoint directors, it does meet regularly with its wards’ boards to make its feelings known. It also keeps managers on their toes by enlisting outside consultants, such as Bain or McKinsey, to spot industrial trends they should be aware of.淡马锡公司首席发言人史蒂芬福肖说,淡马锡公司已经逐步发展成了一个活跃的投资者,但不是一个积极分子。虽然淡马锡不任命董事,它定期与其监管董事会开会,让董事会知道他们的想法。它还让管理者通过谋求外部咨询来保持警觉,如向贝恩或麦肯锡咨询,来留意他们应该知道的工业发展趋势。Would the Temasek model help improve the efficiency of China’s state-owned enterprises? Only one (Singapore Airlines) or possibly two (DBS bank) of Temasek’s GLCs have established themselves as international brands, according to critics such as Chris Balding of Peking University. SingTel has made successful foreign acquisitions, but other GLCs have fared less well. STATS ChipPAC, a semiconductor firm, lost money in the second quarter of this year, as a result of the costs of closing a factory in Malaysia.淡马锡模型会有助于提高中国国有企业的效率吗?据北京大学的克里斯鲍尔丁说,淡马锡公司的国联企业中只有一个(新加坡航空)或者可能两个(DBS)已经成为了国际品牌。SingTel成功进行了外资并购,但是其他国联企业很少有成功的。半导体公司STATAS ChipPAC今年第二季度亏损,因为它关闭了位于马来西亚的一个工厂。The few academic studies of Singapore’s GLCs are more encouraging, however. A 2004 article by Carlos Ramirez of George Mason University and Ling Hui Tan of the IMF showed that the country’s GLCs enjoyed a higher market value, relative to the book value of their assets, than comparable private firms. They also generated a higher return on assets, on average.但是关于新加坡国联企业的学术研究越少越令人鼓舞。乔治梅森的卡洛斯拉米雷斯和国际货币基金组织的Ling Hui Tan 2004发表的一篇文章表明,就资产净值而言,新加坡的国联企业比起私人企业有更高的市场价值。他们还创造更高的平均投资回报。In judging the performance of Temasek’s GLCs, the counterfactual is important. They may not be as obviously successful as private titans from the region such as Samsung or LG. But they are not nearly as bad as most SOEs, including China’s. The enthusiasm for reform of SOEs in China reflects their deteriorating returns and accumulating debt. According to M.K. Tang of Goldman Sachs, their return on assets was 6.5 percentage points below that of other Chinese firms in 2012 and their shares trade at a growing discount. Even Mr Balding, meanwhile, is happy to fly Singapore Airlines.在评价淡马锡的国联企业的表现时,反事实的情况很重要。他们可能不会像亚洲私人公司巨头那样有着明显的成功,如三星、LG。但是他们几乎不会像大多数国有企业包括中国的国有企业那样糟糕。中国国有企业改革的反映了他们日益恶化的投资回报和日益增长的债务。根据高盛投资公司的M.K. Tang,2012年国有企业的资产回报比中国其他公司低6.5个百分点,且他们的股份持续贬值。同时,甚至是鲍尔丁先生也很高兴乘坐新加坡航空。 /201311/266360

Business this week一周商业要闻Aug 24th 2013 |From the print editionIndia was plunged into financial turmoil. Markets swooned in response to the government’s imposition of capital controls on domestic investors to stop cash flowing out of the country in order to halt the decline of the rupee. Investors fret that India’s large current-account deficit makes it particularly exposed to capital flight out of emerging markets prompted by the Federal Reserve’s plan to taper quantitative easing. As share prices in Indian banks fell and Indian bond yields rose, the central bank promised to intervene to boost liquidity.印度陷入金融危机。印度政府为了抑制卢比贬值,对国内投资者实行了强制资本管制,以防止现金外流导致市场混乱。受美联储缩减量化宽松规模的影响,印度大量的经常账户赤字使该国大量资本流出。由于印度业股价下跌,国债收益增加,印度央行承诺将进行市场干预以增加流动性。However, the rupee fell to a new low against the dollar after the minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting confirmed it was on track to ease bond-buying this year. Currencies in other emerging markets also came under pressure. In a surprise move Turkey’s central bank raised interest rates to support the lira. The Brazilian real sank to its lowest level against the dollar in four years.然而,美联储召开最新一次会议,确认将缩减本年度购买债券规模。消息披露数分钟后,卢比兑美元汇率跌至历史新低点。其他新兴市场里的货币也面临压力。土耳其央行采取了令人吃惊的举措——提高利率,以此持里拉汇率。巴西货币雷亚尔兑美元的汇率跌至四年来的最低点。Falcone has his wings clipped法尔康羽翼受损The Securities and Exchange Commission fined Philip Falcone and Harbinger, the hedge fund he runs, m for his misuse of clients’ cash to pay a tax bill. More importantly, Mr Falcone had to admit to wrongdoing, the first such admission under the SEC’s policy of reducing the number of deals it cuts with defendants in which they neither admit nor deny guilt.美国券交易委员会(SEC)给菲利普·法尔康和他经营的对冲基金公司Harbinger开出了高达1800万美元的罚单,原因是他挪用客户的现金去付税单。更重要的是,法尔康不得不承认违约行为,这也是交会出台减少与被告交易的政策以来第一个承认不法行为的被告;此前,被告总是不承认其不法行为或者不认罪。Two electronic-trading mishaps further undermined confidence in automated markets. A sudden spike in the Shanghai stockmarket was caused by a computer glitch at Everbright Securities. Chinese regulators banned the broker from proprietary trading for three months as a result. And a software error at Goldman Sachs saw it place enough mistaken orders for stock options on American exchanges to drive prices lower. The blunder could potentially cost the bank hundreds of millions of dollars.两笔电子交易的失误进一步打击了人们对自动交易市场的信心。日前,上海股票交易所股指骤升,起因是光大券的电脑系统出现了小故障。为此,中国监会决定在3个月内,禁止光大券进行自营交易业务。此外,由于高盛投资公司的一个软件故障,美国股市出现了大量订购股票期权的错误订单,导致股价下跌。这个错误可能会给造成数亿美元的损失。BHP Billiton’s net profit for the year to June fell by 30%, to .9 billion. The mining company is to invest heavily in potash, an ingredient used in fertiliser and for which there is a burgeoning demand worldwide. This should offset some of its decline in prices for iron ore and copper, as the Chinese-led commodities boom cools.截止今年六月,必和必拓公司净利润下降30%,仅为109亿美元。由于全球对化肥原料碳酸钾的需求急速上升,这家矿业公司打算斥巨资投资碳酸钾。随着中国掀起的大宗商品交易的热潮的降温,必和必拓公司投资碳酸钾的举措将会弥补由于铁矿石和铜矿价格下跌而遭受的损失。Glencore Xstrata reported its first earnings since merging as a new company in May, and announced a .7 billion write-down of its mining assets.近日,今年5月刚完成合并的嘉能可斯特拉塔公司报告了其首份收入报告。这份报告显示,自并购以来,其矿业资产已经减记了77亿美元。Vestas, a Danish maker of wind turbines, replaced its chief executive, after its quarterly earnings revealed steeper losses. Once a leader in the industry, Vestas’s windpower business has been buffeted by competition from China; it also gets less from European subsidies for green energy. Anders Runevad, who used to work at Ericsson, a Swedish telecoms firm, is the new boss.丹麦风电巨头维斯塔斯在本季度收益进一步下滑后,更换了其首席执行官。受到不断来自中国市场竞争冲击和欧洲对清洁能源的补贴的缩减压力,当年的巨头风光不再。曾在瑞典电信企业爱立信工作的安德斯·伦沃德成为其新任首席。Brewers’ droop天气让啤酒市场“遇冷”Carlsberg and Heineken saw profits slip in their latest set of earnings, partly because the cooler-than-usual European spring watered down the demand for beer. Carlsberg said the closure of outdoor beer kiosks in Russia in an effort to curb public drunkenness had also hurt it. Both companies pointed to Asia as a bright spot.嘉士伯和喜力最近收益下滑,部分原因是由于欧洲天气较往年偏低,使啤酒的需求减少。嘉士伯公司分析说,俄罗斯为了抑制在公共场所喝酒行为关闭了各种户外啤酒亭,这也是销量减少的原因。现在两家公司都把亚洲作为翻盘之地。The Bank of Israel issued new rules to banks on mortgages, including a requirement that monthly repayments be no more than half of a borrower’s household income. Lending has surged over the years, though the economy is slowing and unemployment rising.以色列央行对于抵押贷款颁布了新规定,包括月还贷额不能高于家庭总收入的一半的要求。经济增势缓慢和失业率的增高并没有给贷款热降温。Meg Whitman’s turnaround plan for Hewlett-Packard hit a bump in the road, when she said she now no longer expects to see a return to revenue growth next year after almost all its divisions recorded a drop in quarterly sales. HP’s big push into computer servers has so far failed to offset the decline of its PC business.惠普的复兴之路可谓是崎岖不平。本季度几乎所有部门销售量都有下滑之后,梅格·惠特曼说她不再对明年收益增长抱有期望。虽然在务器方面取得一定的成绩,但对于想以此缓解陷入个人电脑销售困境的惠普来说无异于杯水车薪。A judge refused Carl Icahn’s request to speed up his lawsuit to stop the proposed buy-out of Dell, the latest setback to the activist investor’s alternative takeover proposal for the computer-maker. A postponed shareholders’ vote is now due to take place on September 12th. Dell, meanwhile, reported a 72% drop in quarterly net profit, after heavily discounting sales of its PCs and servers.卡尔·伊坎为阻止戴尔按计划被收购提出了加速审理诉讼请求,而这一要求被法官驳回。这对于激进投资者卡尔·伊坎另外提出收购提议无疑是一个新的打击。9月12号将召开延期的股东投票大会。本季度,戴尔公司由于对个人电脑和终端务器的打折销售,净利润降低了72%。Al Jazeera began broadcasting on its new news channel in the ed States, building on the network of Al Gore’s Current TV, which it bought in January. With bureaus in 12 American cities, the Qatari company promises to provide an alternative on cable to CNN, Fox and MSN.半岛电视台已在美国开播了新的新闻频道。此频道原属于阿尔·戈尔创办的美国潮流有线电视台,于今年1月份被半岛电视台收购。卡塔尔半岛电视台已经在美国建立了12个分部,它承诺将为看惯了CNN,FOX和MSN的美国观众提供一个新的选择。That lost Kodak moment重拾柯达时刻A judge approved Eastman Kodak’s plan to restructure and leave bankruptcy protection, which it filed for in January last year. The company has shed its photography business (and .1 billion in debt) to focus on commercial printing technologies. It designed the world’s first working digital camera in 1975, only to discard the project and stick to film.法院通过了伊士曼柯达公司重建计划和脱离2012年1月提交的破产保护的申请。此前,柯达为专注于商业成像领域出售了负债41亿的照相机业务。柯达放弃负债41美元的摄影业务,以专注于商业印刷技术。1975年,柯达制造了世界上第一台数码相机,然而现在却转向数码影像业务。201309/254933

Finance and economics财经商业The new head of the Federal Reserve新任联邦储备局长Dove ascendant鸽派主政Janet Yellen will stick to her predecessors expansionary policies詹尼特将会继续推行前任扩张性经济政策FOR most of the past few years, monetary policy has urged the economy on while dysfunctional fiscal policy has held it back.过去的几年货币政策促进了美国经济的发展而运行不正常的财政政策却阻止其发展。Barack Obamas decision to nominate Janet Yellen to succeed Ben Bernanke as the Feds chairman in February raises the odds that stimulative monetary policy will continue.巴拉克·奥巴马提名Janet Yellen 接过Ben Bernanke的衣钵于二月担任联邦储备局主席一职,这将加大继续推行刺激性的货币政策的优势。But disquiet about that stance is growing.然而人们对于这一立场的担忧不断增长。In addition to being the first woman to run the Fed, Ms Yellen is also the first acknowledged dove.她不仅是首位入主联邦储备局的女性,而且是著名的鸽派人物。Presidents once felt compelled to appoint monetary-policy hawks such as Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan to reassure markets that the Fed would not succumb to the political systems inflationary bias.总统为情况所迫曾任命鹰派强硬持货币政策的Paul Volcker和Alan Greenspan确保市场运行良好,避免联邦储备局遭受来自政治体系的通货膨胀趋势。In appointing Ms Yellen Mr Obama has implicitly acknowledged how much the world, and the Feds priorities, have changed.通过任命Ms Yellen,奥巴马含蓄地表明世界的转变,联邦储备局重心的转变。Since 2008 America, like many other countries, has struggled with slack demand and high unemployment.如许多其他国家一样,自2008年以来,美国一直为疲软的需求及较高的失业率所困扰。Meanwhile, energy prices excluded, inflation has persistently fallen short of the Feds 2% target.与此同时,排除能源价格的影响,通货膨胀率一直未能达到联邦储备局2%的目标。Ms Yellen is not alone in believing that unemployment is a bigger problem than inflation.并非Ms Yellen一人认为较之通货膨胀失业率居高不下是更为严重的问题,So do most of her colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee, through which the Fed sets interest rates.她很多在联邦公开市场政策委员会制定联邦利率的同事也这么认为。But she has felt that way longer and more strongly.但她比他们更早更强烈地意识到这一点。She pushed publicly last year to hold interest rates near zero for longer than the Fed then planned, to hasten the fall in unemployment, even if that caused inflation to rise briefly above 2%.去年她公开推进利率趋零以促进就业降低失业率,使这一货币政策比联邦计划的时间要长,即便这一行动使通胀率高于2%。She was the principal author of the Feds current statement of long-term goals and operating principles, which stresses the equal importance of its twin statutory goals of full employment and low inflation.她是此次联邦现行长远目标及管理原则的主要推行者,这一政策将促进就业和压低通胀率这两个法定目标置于同等重要的地位。As vice-chairman, Ms Yellen helped Mr Bernanke nudge the FOMC towards its commitments to keep its benchmark interest rate at zero at least until unemployment has dropped to 6.5% and to keep buying billion-worth of bonds a month with newly printed money until the labour market has improved substantially.过去作为联邦储备局副主席,Ms Yellen协助Mr Bernanke推进联邦公开市场政策委员会实践其承诺,保持基准利率为零的状态直至失业率至少降至6.5%,继续印刷新钱购买850亿美元的债券直至劳动力市场情况持续好转。These policies have not fuelled inflation, as hawks feared they might.这些政策并没有像鹰派预估的那样加速通胀。Indeed, Ms Yellen would probably welcome having to tighten due to inflationary pressure, because that would mean demand was buoyant.的确,要是通胀压力过大,Ms Yellen势必会实施紧缩的货币政策,因为这意味着市场需求旺盛。But hawks still worry that the Fed is distorting prices in financial markets, breeding excessive risk-taking and preventing investors in Treasury bonds from demanding fiscal discipline.然而鹰派依然担心联邦储备局打乱了金融市场的价格,导致过多的风险从而使投资者因为繁多的财政纪律放弃购买国库券。Such concerns are widesp among Republicans in the Senate.参议院的共和党人普遍担心这一趋势。Several voted against her nomination to be vice-chairman in 2010.2010年几个议员在提名她为联邦储备局副主席时投了反对票。She was not particularly modest about the role of monetary policy in the economy and I dont see any evidence that thats changed, one such Republican, Bob Corker ofTennessee, said this week.一位来自田纳西州的共和党议员Bob Corker本周称,对于货币政策在经济中所扮演的角色,Yellen似乎不是很审慎,并且我并没有看到她作出的改变。With the support of the Senates Democratic majority, Ms Yellen is almost certain to be confirmed.因为得到参议院大多数民主党议员的持,Ms Yellen在联邦储备局的地位已经确立。But with many Republicans opposed, she will probably get fewer than the 70 votes Mr Bernanke did for his second term in 2010, at the time the lowest on record for a Fed chairman.但由于许多共和党人反对,她的得票很可能会比Bernanke2010年连任时的70票更低,而这在当时创造了联邦储备局主席最低的得票率记录。Moreover, one of the seven seats on the Feds board is vacant and another five may come up for grabs in the coming year, given expirations and the tug of other opportunities.此外,联邦董事会7个席位尚有一个空缺,在下一年换届时,倘若还有其他有利机会将有5人竞争该席位。The weight of opinion within the institution could change markedly as a result.因此,联邦储备局内部观点很可能会带来巨大转变。Minutes of the Feds last meeting, in September, show that it is aly divided on QE.联邦储备局9月份的会议记录显示,人们对量化宽松的货币政策已有分歧。Many officials wanted to slow its pace.很多官员想要放缓量化宽松的步伐。But the view that the economy was not strong enough prevailed, and the Fed surprised the market by sticking to its current pace of bond-buying.然而经济状况并不允许紧缩货币政策的观点盛行,联邦继续推行现行券交易的步伐出乎市场的预测。Once in office, Ms Yellen is likely to pursue a gentle taper coupled with a firm commitment to keep interest rates at zero.一旦就任,Yellen很可能会追求趋缓温和的货币政策但是会坚持维持利率为零。If the economy falters—an all-too-real possibility givenAmericas budget mess—she may want to increase QE, but might struggle to persuade her colleagues.倘若经济衰退—美国混乱的经济预算负主要责任—她可能会提高量化宽松的程度,但她要费力地说她的同事们持她。The Feds strength, she said in accepting the nomination, is its capacity to vigorously debate diverse views, and then to unite.在接受任命的时候,她说联邦储备局的优势在于它能够让不同的观点相互辩论最后获得统一。Maintaining that trait may be her biggest challenge.而发扬这种优良传统或许是她面临的最大挑战。 /201310/260172

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