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楼主:39爱问 时间:2019年09月22日 08:21:21 点击:0 回复:0
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Thousands of sharks slaughtered simply for their fins to use in expensive soup which is a symbol of wealth in China上万条鲨鱼被杀以制成代表中国财富的鱼翅汤Horrific images show thousands of dead sharks piled up on a market floor in Indonesia as workers hack off their fins.可怕的照片显示上万条死鲨鱼堆积在印尼一市场的地板上,这里的工人正在砍下鱼翅。Sharks of all sizes were photographed at the Karngsong fish auction on June 21, in Indramayu, in Indonesia#39;s West Java Province.这些各种大小的鲨鱼照片拍摄6月21号的Karngsong鱼拍卖会上,位于印尼西爪哇省的Indramayu。The country is one of the world#39;s largest shark catchers due to a demand for shark fins in Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and mainland China.印尼是世界最大的捕鲨国家之一,主要供应给新加坡,香港,台湾和中国大陆。In China shark fins are regarded as a delicacy and the fins are one of the world’s most valuable fish products.在中国鱼翅汤是一道美食,而鱼翅是世界上最贵重的鱼产品之一。They are the main ingredient in shark fin soup, which is priced as high as £68 per bowl. The soup is a symbol of wealth, hospitality and status in China and is often consumed at special occasions such as weddings and banquets.它们是鱼翅汤的主料,每碗鱼翅汤的价格高达68英镑。在中国鱼翅汤是财富,好客和地位的象征,通常出现在特殊场合,比如婚礼和宴会上。 /201606/451076Many influentialinterests and opinion-formers de-test today’s ultra-low interest rates. 许多具有影响力的利益集团和舆论影响者不喜欢当今的超低利率。They are alsoclear who is to blame: central banks. 他们还明确指出罪魁祸首是央行。Theresa May, UKprime minister, has joined the fray, arguing that while monetary policy#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;provided the necessary emergency medicine after the financial crash, we have toacknowledge there have been some bad side effects. 英国首相特里萨.梅(Theresa May)加入了指责的阵营,她表示,尽管货币政策在金融危机过后……提供了必要的紧急救助,但我们不得不承认,它带来了一些副作用。People with assetshave got richer. 拥有资产的人变得更富了。People withoutthem have suffered. 没有资产的人日子更加难过。People withmortgages have found their debts cheaper. 有抵押贷款的人发现他们的债务更便宜了。People withsavings have found themselves poorer. 有储蓄的人发现他们更穷了。A change has gotto come.必须做出改变。So how might the governmentdeliver such change? The answer is not obvious. 那么政府应该如何推动这种改变?并不明显。As BenBroadbent, deputy governor of the Bank of England, notes, real long-terminterest rates have fallen to zero (or below) over the past quarter of acentury. 正如英国央行(BoE)副行长本.布罗德本特(Ben Broadbent)所说的,在过去25年里,长期实际利率已降至零值(或负值)水平。Furthermore, asthe International Monetary Fund points out, core consumer price inflation hasbeen persistently weak in high-income economies. 此外,国际货币基金组织(IMF)指出,高收入经济体中的核心消费者价格通胀率持续疲弱。Mr Broadbentargues: With inflation relatively stable in all these countries, it’s hard tobelieve central banks were doing much else than#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201; following a similardecline in the neutral rate of interest.布罗德本特辩称:由于所有这些国家通胀率相对稳定,很难相信各国央行除了跟随中性利率下降以外……还能有其他作为。At first glance,then, central banks are just following real economic forces while takingaccount, as they should, of recent demand weakness caused by the financialcrisis and the excessive build-up of private debt that preceded it. 因此乍看之下,各国央行只是在顺应实际的经济力量,同时考虑了(这也是他们应该做的)金融危机带来的近年需求疲弱以及之前的私人债务过度累积。An indication ofthis demand weakness is the persistence of financial surpluses (excesses ofincome over spending) in the private sectors of high-income economies — notablyin Japan, Germany and the eurozone — despite ultra-low interest rates. 表明这种需求疲弱的一个迹象是,尽管利率超低,但高收入国家(尤其是在日本、德国乃至整个欧元区)私人部门持续保持财务盈余(收入超过出)。This is why theBank of Japan and the European Central Bank have remained particularlyaggressive.这就是日本央行(BoJ)和欧洲央行(ECB)依然保持特别激进的原因。Given thisbackground — the sustained declines in real interest rates, chronically lowinflation and feeble private demand — does a credible alternative set ofpolicies exist?在这种背景下——实际利率持续下降、通胀长期低企以及私人需求疲弱——存在可信的替代政策组合吗?One kind ofobjection to present policies is mainly a howl of pain: low interest ratesundermine the business models of banks and insurance companies, lower theincomes of savers, devastate the solvency of pension schemes, raise assetprices and worsen inequality. 有种针对当前政策的反对意见主要是在抱怨:低利率破坏了和保险公司的商业模式,降低了储蓄者的收入,摧毁了养老金计划的偿付能力,推升了资产价格,加剧了不平等现象。As Mark Carney,governor of the Bank of England, noted recently, monetary policy hasdistributional consequences but it is for broader government to offset them ifthey so choose. 正如英国央行行长马克.卡尼(Mark Carney)最近指出的那样,货币政策具有分配后果,但抵消这些后果是广义政府的责任——如果其这么选择。Whether thegovernment should use fiscal resources to compensate people who hold largeamounts in saving accounts is doubtful. 值得怀疑的是,英国是否应该动用财政资源补偿持有大量储蓄的人。These are hardlythe poorest. 这些人很难说是最穷的人。Moreover, to theextent that low rates promote recovery, almost everybody benefits.此外,就低利率推动了经济复苏而言,几乎所有人都在受益。The distributionalconsequences of post-crisis monetary policies are also complex. 后危机时代货币政策的分配后果也是复杂的。In the UK thedistribution of income seems to have become less un-equal, but the distributionof wealth more so, since the crisis. 在英国,自金融危机以来,收入分配不平等程度似乎有所下降,但财富分配不平等程度有所上升。Lower interestrates need not worsen pension deficits; that depends on what happens to thevalue of assets held by pension funds. 利率下降不一定加剧养老金赤字;它取决于养老基金持有的资产价值表现如何。Normally, lowerinterest rates should raise the latter. 通常来说,利率下降应该提高资产价值。What would lowerboth real interest rates and asset prices is greater pessimism about economicprospects. 让实际利率和资产价格全都下降的是对经济前景更加悲观的看法。Central banks donot cause such pessimism but try to offset it. 各国央行并未导致此类悲观看法,它们只是在努力抵消这种情绪。Finally, theimpact of low rates, even negative nominal rates, on the business models offinancial intermediaries can be dealt with only by changing those models oreliminating the need for such low rates altogether.最后,要应对低利率(甚至名义负利率)对金融中介机构商业模式的影响,只有改变那些模式,或者从根本上消除对此类低利率的需要。A more cogent setof objections is that the policy framework or view of how monetary policy worksis misguided.一种更能自圆其说的反对意见是,关于货币政策运作方式的政策框架或者观念受到了误导。The heart of theframework is inflation targeting, which can indeed cause problems — notably ifthe impact of monetary policy on finance is ignored, as happened before thecrisis. 政策框架的核心是以通胀为目标,这的确可能导致问题,尤其是如果像金融危机前那样,忽视货币政策对金融的影响的话。But it isimpossible to believe that deflation would make managing a world economycharacterised by chronically weak demand any easier. 但如果有人说,通缩将会让长期需求低迷的世界经济变得更容易管理,那是完全不可信的。On the contrary,deflation could make highly negative nominal rates necessary. 相反,通缩可能促使各国央行有必要将利率降至极大的负值区间。That would bepractically and politically difficult. 无论是从实际操作还是从政治上来说,这都是非常困难的。Not only maintainingthe inflation target, but achieving it, is essential.保持和实现通胀目标都是不可或缺的。Some even arguethat low rates weaken demand by lowering spending, stalling productivity growthand stimulating private borrowing. 一些人甚至辩称,低利率通过降低出、阻碍生产率增长并刺激私人借贷,从而削弱了需求。Yet there is noclear reason why low rates should lower aggregate spending since they merelyshift incomes from creditors to debtors. 然而,没有明显理由表明低利率会降低总体出,因为它们只是将收入从债权人转移到债务人那里。Low rates alsomake borrowing cheaper. 低利率也让借款更加便宜。That shouldstimulate investment and so increase productivity growth.这应该刺激投资,从而加快生产率增长。Low rates areindeed intended to make debt more bearable and encourage borrowing andspending. 低利率的确意在让人们更容易忍受债务,并鼓励借款和出。If governmentsdislike this mechanism, they need to replace private with public borrowing,ideally in support of investment in infrastructure. 如果政府不喜欢这种机制,它们需要用公共借款取代私人借款,最好是持基础设施投资。In addition, theyneed structural reforms, notably in taxation, to encourage private investmentand discourage saving. 此外,它们需要结构性改革(尤其是在税收领域)以鼓励私人投资并抑制储蓄。Among bighigh-income countries, Germany and Japan most need such structural reforms.在大型高收入国家当中,德国和日本最需要此类结构性改革。What Mrs May hasdone so far is cause confusion. 梅迄今所做的只是引起困惑。It is a mistakefor a head of government to criticise a central bank in its efforts to achievethe target the government itself has set. 一个政府首脑抨击央行努力实现政府自己制定的目标是错误的。Moreover, there isno good reason to believe the BoE is going about its mandate in the wrong way. 此外,没有好的理由认为,英国央行在以错误的方式履行其职责。If, however, thegovernment wants to change that mandate, then this requires careful thought. 然而,如果英国政府想要改变这种职责,那是需要认真考虑的。All changes createbig risks. 所有的改变都会带来巨大的风险。Throw-away linesare simply the wrong way to start this, particularly given Brexit. 脱口而出的风凉话是启动这一进程的错误方式,尤其是考虑到英国退欧的大背景。Finally, if thegovernment wants to shield the losers from monetary policy, it must weigh otherclaims on its scarce resources.最后,如果英国政府想要保护输家免受货币政策的影响,那就必须权衡其他方面对稀缺资源的要求。If, however, itwants to lighten the load on monetary policy, let us cry Hallelujah. 然而,如果英国政府希望减轻货币政策的负担,那就让我们欢呼吧。It is past timethat governments examined the combination of fiscal policy, debt restructuringand structural reforms that could help central banks deliver the vigorouseconomic growth the world economy still needs.各国政府早就应该考虑财政政策、债务重组和结构性改革这些组合措施,它们有望帮助央行兑现世界经济仍然需要的强劲增长。 /201610/473514Janet Yellen has started weaning the American economy off its addiction to cheap money. But, given recent mixed economic data, economists are divided on the merits of the US Federal Reserve chair’s decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points.珍妮特耶伦(Janet Yellen)已经开始让美国经济摆脱对廉价资金的依赖。但是,考虑到最近好坏掺半的经济数据,关于这位美联储(Fed)主席加息25个基点的决定是否明智,经济学家的看法出现了分歧。For a different perspective on the challenge facing the Fed, it is worth looking at another corner of Washington: the Office of Financial Research. Just before the Fed announcement, the OFR published its first Financial Stability Report on the health of US finance. This went largely unnoticed.要想从另一个视角看待美联储面临的挑战,有必要看一下华盛顿的另一个地方:金融研究办公室(Office of Financial Research,简称OFR)。就在美联储宣布加息前,OFR公布了其针对美国金融健康状况的首份金融稳定性报告(Financial Stability Report)。但这份报告基本上被忽视了。That is a pity. The OFR, an offshoot of the Treasury, was set up after the 2008 crisis to assess financial risk — and its report reveals that several years of ultra-low rates have distinctly the distorted financial system. Ms Yellen will need extraordinary skill — and luck — to handle these distortions without sparking another crisis. The market reaction to the rate rise might seem impressively calm, but the real test for the wider financial system has barely begun.这令人遗憾。美国财政部下属的OFR是2008年金融危机后、为评估金融风险而设立的机构。该机构的报告揭示出,数年超低的利率已经严重扭曲了金融体系。耶伦需要有非凡的本领、以及运气,才能纠正这些扭曲、而不引发另一场危机。市场对加息的反应可能看上去令人意外地平静,但是整个金融系统面临的真正考验才刚刚开始。In finance, there are at least three areas investors need to watch. The first is the fact that the ultra-loose policy has created credit bubbles that could now deflate. Because they have not emerged in the sectors that were at the centre of last decade’s bubble, mortgages and banks, they have attracted less attention. But, as the Bank for International Settlements wrote earlier this month, debt has increased significantly since 2008 in emerging markets.在金融领域,有3个方面需要投资者留意。第一个是超宽松政策制造的信贷泡沫如今可能破裂。因为这些泡沫没有出现在上一个十年泡沫集中的领域,即抵押贷款和业,因此它们吸引的注意力较少。但是,正如国际清算(Bank for International Settlements)本月早些时候所写道的那样,自2008年以来新兴市场的债务已经显著增加。Also, the OFR observed this week: “In our assessment, credit risk in the US non-financial business sector is elevated and rising” — to a point where “higher base rates may create refinancing risks... potentially precipitate a broader default cycle”. Fortunately, banks seem fairly well placed to absorb losses. But an outbreak of defaults could spark contagion and market volatility, particularly since post-crisis regulations mean banks are less willing to be market makers in the non-business sector — prepared to buy or sell when investors want to trade — making it harder to trade the instruments in question.此外,上周OFR还指出:“根据我们的评估,美国非金融业务部门的信贷风险有所增加并在持续上升”,以至于“更高的基准利率可能会带来再融资方面的风险……并有可能促发更大范围的违约循环”。幸运的是,业似乎准备得不错,可以承受损失。但是,违约的爆发可能引发传染性并造成市场波动,特别是鉴于后危机时代的监管规定,意味着业做非业务部门做市商(即当投资者想交易时,随时愿意买进或卖出)的意愿下降,使得对相关工具进行交易更加困难。A second area to watch is the state of investors’ portfolios. In recent years, asset managers have tried to chase yield by buying longer-term assets with greater credit risk. This has raised the “duration” of bond portfolios — or their vulnerability to higher rates — to historic highs. Indeed, the OFR calculates that a mere 100bp rise in long-term US rates could generate unhedged losses of 4bn for US-based bond mutual funds and exchange traded funds. Once again, the system as a whole could probably absorb this; but it could also spark contagion, particularly since banks, too, have increased their duration profiles.第二个需要注意的领域是投资者投资组合的状态。近年来,资产管理公司一直试图通过购买信用风险更高的长期资产来追求收益率。这使债券投资组合的“期限”——或者说他们对较高利率的脆弱性——上升至历史高点。的确,OFR计算,美国长期利率上调仅100个基点,就会对美国债券共同基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)带来2140亿美元的未对冲损失。再一次,作为一个整体,金融系统很可能可以承受这些损失;但是这也可能引发传染性,特别是因为的投资组合期限也变长了。A third area of concern is that in recent years there have been stealthy shifts in the opaque world of money markets. Before the crisis many asset managers, companies and banks placed spare cash in money-market instruments. Recently, however, this money has flooded on to the balance sheet of banks and the Fed itself. This has made it harder for the Fed to control the price of money with its usual policy tools.第三个令人担忧的领域是,近年来,货币市场这个不透明的世界悄然在改变。危机前,很多资产管理公司、企业和业都把闲置资金放在货币市场工具上。然而,近来这部分资金已经流入和美联储自己的资产负债表。这使得美联储更难以利用常规政策工具来控制资金价格。Another effect of these flows in the money markets might cause the Fed rise to spark upheaval. Zoltan Pozsar, an analyst at Credit Suisse, thinks hundreds of billions of dollars could soon move back from banks to money market funds — with potentially destabilising consequences that the Fed (and others) are scrambling to understand.货币市场此类流动的另一个影响,或许会导致美联储加息引发市场动荡。瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)的分析师佐尔坦波扎尔(Zoltan Pozsar)认为,数千亿美元可能会很快从流入货币市场基金,其后果可能会造成不稳定,美联储(以及其他机构)正努力尝试理解这些后果。These three points are not the only challenges in markets. Nor do they mean the Fed is wrong to raise rates now. On the contrary, the distortions have arisen precisely because money has been artificially cheap for so long. A rate rise was long overdue — at least for the financial world.市场面临的挑战并不止以上三点。这三点也不意味着美国决定现在加息是错误的。相反,这种扭曲之所以存在,正是因为资金成本被人为压低太长时间了。加息来得太迟了——至少对金融界来说是这样的。Nevertheless, nobody can ignore the fact that Ms Yellen and her colleagues are now walking a slippery tightrope. In coming months, Fed officials will need to convince investors and borrowers that the cost of money is finally rising at a steady rate and that they should adjust portfolios accordingly. (Arguably this has still not entirely happened: the markets are pricing in just two interest rate rises next year but Fed officials appear to expect four.)然而,没人可以忽视耶伦及其同僚如今正在走钢丝。未来数月,美联储官员将需要让投资者和借款人相信,资金成本终于将稳步上升了,他们应该相应地调整资产组合。(可以说这种调整尚未到位:目前市场价格只反映出明年将两次加息,而美联储似乎预计会加息4次)。The Fed also needs to avoid a replay of 1994, when it raised rates by more than 200 basis points, causing the 10-year bond yield to surge more than 300 basis points in a year. If that happened again, it would spark the defaults and bond fund losses of which the OFR warns.美联储也需要避免1994年的情况重演,当时它上调利率逾200个基点,造成10年期国债收益率在一年内飙升逾300个基点。如果这种情况再次发生,将引发违约潮和债券基金亏损——正如OFR所警告的那样。What Ms Yellen needs for the financial system is a “Goldilocks” policy, where market and Fed rates rise gradually, or at a speed that is “just right”. Better hope she can deliver that. Until then, applause is premature.耶伦需要对金融系统采取的是“不温不火”的政策,即市场和美联储利率逐渐上升,或者以“刚刚好”的速度上升。最好希望她能实现这一点。在那之前,不宜太早鼓掌。 /201512/418094More than 90 per cent of the global population lives in a place where the air does not meet World Health Organisation safety guidelines, according to a study from the UN agency that warns of a public health emergency created by rising pollution levels.世界卫生组织(WHO)的一份报告显示,全球逾90%的人口居住在空气质量不符合其安全标准的地区。它警告称,污染日益加剧导致一个公共卫生紧急状态。The most detailed research on outdoor pollution in individual countries undertaken by the organisation shows an estimated 3m deaths a year can be linked to dirty air from coal-fired power plants, old cars, factories and other sources.WHO开展的这项关于各国室外污染最为详尽的研究表明,据估计每年300万例死亡与燃煤电厂、老式汽车、工厂以及其他来源排放的污染空气有关。Millions more are affected by smoke inside homes from stoves or fires fuelled with wood or dung, meaning a total of 6.5m deaths were associated with air pollution in 2012, the agency said.该组织表示,还有数百万人受到室内炉火或者燃烧木柴或粪便产生的烟雾的影响,这意味着2012年总计650万例死亡与空气污染有关。Air pollution continues to rise at an alarming rate, and affects economies and people’s quality of life. 报告称:空气污染继续以惊人的速度上升,影响到经济和人们的生活质量。It is a public health emergency, the study says.这是一个公共卫生紧急状态。An interactive map made by the agency reveals stark disparities among countries’ levels of particulate matter, one of the most dangerous forms of air pollution. 世卫组织制作的一幅互动地图显示,各国颗粒物浓度差异明显,颗粒物是空气污染的最危险形式之一。Tiny particles, no bigger than 2.5 micrometres, can penetrate deep into the lungs and cardiovascular system. 直径小于或等于2.5微米的微小颗粒可以深入人体的肺和心血管系统。WHO guidelines say annual average concentrations should not exceed 10 micrograms per cubic metre.世卫组织的标准是,年度平均浓度不应超过每立方米10微克。The limit is met in much of the US, Canada and countries such as Australia and New Zealand. 美国、加拿大很多地区以及澳大利亚和新西兰等国家的微小颗粒浓度符合这个标准。But many places in Europe, including parts of the UK, France and Germany, exceed it. 但欧洲很多地区超过了这一标准,包括英国、法国和德国的部分地区。More than 90 per cent of the UK population lives in areas that break WHO limits, according to the study’s model, developed with an international team led by the University of Bath.根据这项研究的模型,超过90%的英国人口生活在超过世卫组织标准的地区,该模型由巴斯大学(University of Bath)牵头的一个国际团队制作。The higher levels of pollution in Europe could be down to the number of EU countries that encouraged the use of diesel cars compared with North America, said Annette Pruss-Ustun, a co-author of the study.报告作者之一安妮特#8226;普鲁斯-于斯顿(Annette Pruss-Ustun)表示,与北美相比,欧洲空气污染水平较高可能源于很多欧盟国家鼓励使用柴油汽车。 /201609/468932

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