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时间:2019年06月18日 05:37:37

World economy世界经济Past and future tense过去和未来时The world economy in 2015 will carry troubling echoes of the late 1990s世界经济在2015年将出现20世纪90年代晚期令人烦恼的相似困境A FINANCIAL crash in Russia; falling oil prices and a strong dollar; a new gold rush in Silicon Valley and a resurgent American economy; weakness in Germany and Japan; tumbling currencies in emerging markets from Brazil to Indonesia; an embattled Democrat in the White House. Is that a forecast of the world in 2015 or a portrait of the late 1990s?俄罗斯发生了金融危机;油价和强势美元下跌;硅谷出现了新的淘金热,并且美国实现经济复苏;德国和日本则经济疲软;从巴西到印度尼西亚的新兴市场货币呈动荡;民主党在白宫四面楚歌。那是对2015年世界的预测或上世纪90年代末的景象描绘?Recent economic history has been so dominated by the credit crunch of 2008-09 that it is easy to forget what happened in the decades before. But looking back 15 years or so is instructive—in terms of both what to do and what to avoid.近期的经济已经由2008-09年的信贷紧缩所主导,很容易忘记在十年前所发生的事情。但回过头来看15年前的经济会发现有所启发—反观两者可以知道该做之事以及应避免什么问题。Then, as now, the ed States was in the vanguard of a disruptive digital revolution. The advent of the internet spawned a burst of innovation and euphoria about Americas prospects. By 1999 GDP was rising by more than 4% a year, almost twice the rich-country average. Unemployment fell to 4%, a 30-year low. Foreign investors piled in, boosting both the dollar and share prices. The Samp;P 500 index rose to almost 30 times earnings; tech stocks went wild.当时和现在一样,美国当年是颠覆性的数字革命的先锋。互联网的出现催生了一阵对美国的前景创新和兴高采烈的乐观情绪。到1999年为止,美国国内生产总值每年增长率超过4%,几乎两倍于富裕国家的平均水平。美国失业率下降至4%,为30年最低点。外国投资者主要集中于提升美元和股票价格。标准普尔500指数升至市盈率的近30倍;科技股疯狂飙升。The optimism in America stood in stark contrast to gloom elsewhere, as it does today. Japans economy had slipped into deflation in 1997. Germany was “the sick man of Europe”, its firms held back by rigid labour markets and other high costs. Emerging markets, having soared ahead, were in crisis: between 1997 and 1999 countries from Thailand to Brazil saw their currencies crash as foreign capital fled and dollar-denominated debts proved unpayable.正如现今一样,在美国的乐观情绪和其他地方的悲观状态形成鲜明对比。日本经济已经在1997年陷入通货紧缩。德国是那时的“欧洲病夫”,德国公司由劳动力市场僵化以及其他高成本阻碍了经济。已经提前高速发展的新兴市场也陷入危机:1997年至1999年之间,从泰国到巴西等国家货币出现崩溃,并伴随着外资外泄,而且以美元计价的债务被明是无法偿还的。Eventually, America ran into trouble too. The tech-stock bubble burst in early 2000, prompting a broader share price slump. Business investment, particularly in technology, sank; and as share prices fell, consumers cut back. By early 2001 America, along with most of the rich world, had slipped into recession, albeit a mild one.最终,美国也遇到了麻烦。早在2000年科技股泡沫破灭,促使更广泛的股价暴跌。商业投资,尤其是在技术方面的投资也在下降;而且随着股票价格下跌,消费者也在减少。到2001年初,美国与大多数发达国家一样,已经陷入经济衰退,尽管是温和的下降。America the powerful壮哉美国Inevitably the parallels are not perfect. The biggest difference is China, a bit-part player in 1999 and now the worlds second-biggest economy, contributing disproportionately to global growth. But there are three trends at work that destabilised the world economy then and could do the same now.不可避免的相似之处并不全然完美。最大的区别就是中国,一个在1999年经济中扮演跑龙套的配角的中国,目前已经是世界上第二大经济体,对全球经济增长作出巨大贡献。但也有使得当时世界经济不稳定三个趋势,也会对现在经济产生影响。The first is the gap between America, where growth is accelerating, and almost everywhere else, where it is slowing. In the late 1990s Larry Summers, then the US deputy treasury secretary, warned that the world economy was “flying on one engine”. For 2015 The Economists panel of forecasters expects 3% growth in America, compared with 1.1% in Japan and the euro area. Chinas growth rate may fall to around 7%.第一个趋势是美国,经济增长加快,而几乎其他任何地方经济正出现放缓。在20世纪90年代后期美国财政部副部长拉里·萨默斯警告说,世界经济是“依靠单台引擎在飞驰”。《经济学家》预测专家对于2015年进行预测:美国经济增长3%,在日本和欧元区为1.1%。中国的经济增长速度可能回落至7%左右。Americans can comfort themselves that, as in the late 1990s, the optimism gap is partially warranted. Jobs are being created in their country faster than at any time since 1999, cheap petrol has buoyed consumer spending and business investment has picked up. But the news is not all good: cheaper oil could tip plenty of Americas shale producers into bankruptcy in 2015, while a stronger dollar and weakness abroad will hurt exporters—just as they did 15 years ago. Britain, the other Anglosphere champion, may also be clobbered by the euro zones woes.美国人可以安慰自己的是,在上世纪90年代后期,乐观缺口部分得到了填补和保障。1999年以来美国创造了比以往任何时候都要快的就业率,价格便宜的汽油提升了消费者出,并且商业投资回升。但并非全是喜讯:便宜的油可能会使得许多美国的页岩生产商在2015年破产,当美元走强和外币出现疲软时会伤害出口商—和他们15年前如出一辙。英国,其他盎格鲁势力范围的捍卫者,也可能被欧元区的危机重挫。The second worrying parallel with the late 1990s is the dismal outlook for the rich worlds two other big economies. Germanys growth rate has tumbled to around 1% and there is a deeper malaise caused by years of underinvestment, a disastrous energy policy and a government that is too obsessed by its fiscal targets to spend money and too frightened of its voters to push through the sort of structural reforms that Gerhard Schr?der implemented in 2003. Meanwhile Japan has repeated the error it made in 1997—thwarting its escape from stagnation with a premature rise in consumption tax.上世纪90年代末的第二个令人担忧的是世界上其他两大经济体惨淡前景。德国的增长率已经下降到1%左右,多年投资不足导致更深的萎靡现象,灾难性的能源政策和政府过于迷恋其财政目标来花费金钱,太害怕选民对推动政府进行如格哈德·施罗德于2003年实施的结构性改革,同时日本已经出现了1997年所犯的错误—挫败了其逃离经济停滞与过早增加消费税。The third echo of the 1990s is the danger in emerging markets. Back then the problem was fixed exchange rates and hefty foreign debt. Now the debts are lower, the exchange rates float and most governments have built up reserves. Still, there are growing signs of trouble, especially in Russia (see article). But other commodity exporters also look vulnerable, especially in Africa. Oil accounts for 95% of Nigerias exports and 75% of its government revenue. Ghana has aly gone to the IMF for support. In other countries the danger lies in the corporate sector. Many Brazilian firms are heavily indebted in dollars. A rash of corporate defaults may prove less spectacular than Asias sovereign-debt crises in the 1990s, but they will make investors nervous and push up the dollar.上世纪90年代的第三波回音是新兴市场的危险。当时的问题是固定汇率和巨额外债。现在,债务较低,汇率浮动,大多数国家的政府都建立了储备。不过,也有麻烦越来越多的迹象,尤其是在俄罗斯(见文章)。但其他大宗商品出口国也很脆弱,尤其是在非洲。石油占95%,尼日利亚的出口和政府财政收入的75%。加纳已经申请国际货币经济组织的持。在其他国家的危险存在于企业部门。许多巴西公司都对美元负债累累。一连串企业违约可能比亚洲的主权债务危机在20世纪90年代不那么引人注目,但他们会让投资者紧张,推升美元。Fear the hangover心有余悸Add all this up and 2015 seems likely to be bumpy. Bears will bet that a surging dollar coupled with euro-zone torpor and a few emerging-market crises will eventually prompt a downturn in America. On the plus side, stockmarkets do not look as frothy as they did in the 1990s: the price/earnings ratio of the Samp;P 500 is 18, not far above its historical average. Although many big tech firms are investing recklessly, most have decent balance-sheets. And the global financial system is less leveraged and hence less vulnerable to contagion. In 1998 Russias default felled LTCM, a big American hedge fund. Such knock-on effects are less likely today.把所有这一切添加起来思考可以想见2015年很可能是崎岖不平的。大咖们会打赌,一个美元升值加上欧元区迟钝和一些新兴市场的危机最终会促使美国进入经济低迷时期。从有利的一面看,股市不会像他们在上世纪90年代那样看起来像泡沫:在标准普尔500指数的价格收益比是18,而不是远高于历史平均水平。尽管许多大型科技公司正在投资硬拼,最有体面的资产负债表。与全球金融体系的杠杆率较低,因此不容易受到传染。 1998年,俄罗斯对美国长期资本管理公司(LTCM)发生了债务违约,这是一家大型美国对冲基金,结果致使该公司垮台。这样连锁反应是不太可能出现在今天。But if the world economy does stumble, restoring stability will be harder this time round because policymakers have so little room for manoeuvre. Back in 1999 the Federal Reserves policy rate was around 5%, leaving plenty of scope for cutting when the economy slowed. Nowadays interest rates all over the rich world are close to zero.但是,如果世界经济不摔跟头,恢复稳定将在这一次变得更为困难,因为政策制定者有那么一点回旋的余地。早在1999年,美联储的政策利率是5%左右,经济放缓时留出足够的余地去削减利率。现在的利率都在富裕国家接近于零。The political scene is also different, and not in a good way. At the end of the 1990s most people in the rich world had enjoyed the fruits of the boom: median American wages rose by 7.7% in real terms in 1995-2000. Since 2007, by contrast, they have been flat in America, and have fallen in Britain and much of the euro zone. All over the rich world voters are aly grumpy with their governments, as polling numbers and their willingness to vote for protest parties show. If they are squeezed next year discontent will turn to anger. The economics of 2015 may look similar to the late 1990s, but the politics will probably be rather worse.政坛出现了不利的变化。在20世纪90年代,大多数人在富裕世界的尽头尽享繁荣的成果:美国中产阶级工资在1995-2000年实际上涨了7.7%。自2007年以来,相比之下,美国工资增长持平,英国和大部分欧元区工资甚至出现下降。各地富国选民已经对他们的政府持不满态度,正如民意测验记录以及他们愿意把票投给抗议党即可看出。如果他们被打压,明年的不满会变成愤怒。 2015年的经济可能类似于20世纪90年代末,但政治形势可能会相当糟糕。译者:肖登怡 译文属译生译世 /201501/351794

At the end of his presidency, Barack Obama is offering transparency on the use of drones in combat zones,在总统任期结尾,奥巴马正提供战区使用无人机的透明度,information which human rights groups and media organizations have sought for years.这是人权组织和媒体多年来寻求的信息。Since taking to the Oval Office, Obama as the commander-in-chief has seen to the increased use of drone strikes, at times drawing criticism for civilian casualties.自担任总统以来,作为总司令的奥巴马已增加使用无人机空袭,有时因平民伤亡引发批评。Now, the Obama administration has provided a stark tally of noncombatant deaths associated with the use of drones in countries beyond Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria.现在,奥巴马政府已经提供除在伊拉克、阿富汗和叙利亚外无人机使用造成非战斗人员死亡的数据。According to the administrations figures, drone strikes have resulted in 64 to 116 deaths under Obamas watch.根据政府的数据,在奥巴马领导下无人机空袭已造成64至116人死亡。译文属。201607/452357

Oh my god.Hi.Wow. I mean,I cannot believe you are here,我的天哪 嗨 哇 我想说 我不敢相信你真的来了Turn around, lillte babe,Lets see how pretty you are.转过来 小宝贝 让我们看看你有多漂亮Four-years-old!How did you remember all those things?才4岁 你怎么记住那么多动作的I was teaching class and my mom taught it to me.You were teaching class!我有在教课 这舞是妈妈教我的 你在教课She is teaching class now, wow, thats amazing.Whats new in your life? Whats going on?她现在在教课啊 哇 那太了不起了 最近有发生什么新鲜事吗Um, I have a brother in my family.And I miss him out here today.我家多了个弟弟 我现在挺想他Okay And he is not a human, he is a puppy.Then you call him your brother? Yes.好吧 他不是人类 他是只小 你把他当做你的弟弟吗 是的Well, theyre like family members, arent they?他们就像家庭成员一样 对吗Yes. Theyre just so sweet.And whats your doggys name?Cody.是的 他们太可爱了 你的小叫什么名字 科迪Cody? Thats great. Did you named Cody?Yes, my mom named him, too.科迪 真棒 是你取的名字吗 是的 我妈妈也一起取名了You named him by his last name, whats his last name?你给他取了姓 他姓什么Cody Posse.Cody Posse, he has a last name!Well if he gets mails, thats important, I guess.科迪·波塞 科迪·波塞 他还有个姓啊 如果他要收邮件的话 那还挺重要的So do you think youre gonna be a dancer when you grow up?你觉得你长大之后会成为一个舞者吗I am a dancer! Oh, nah, Im sorry.What else do you wanna do when you grow up?我就是个舞者啊 哦 抱歉 你长大之后还想做什么呢I wanna be a star and a driver.A star and a driver.我想当明星和司机 明星和司机Wow, but why do you want to be a driver?哇 可是为什么你想当司机Because every time when my mom drives in a car,I pretend where I am driving where too.因为每次我妈妈开车的时候 我都假装我也在开车Oh, okay. So you wanna be a professional driver?好吧 所以你想做一个职业司机是吗Yes. Okay, well, I got you a gift,so you can practice, okay?是的 好的 我有份礼物给你 这样你就可以练习了 好吗Okay. And your color, your favorite color is what?Pink and purple.Well, look at this.好的 你最喜欢什么颜色 粉色和紫色 来看看这个Alrigt, um, thanks for being here,come back and see you anytime.We will be right back after this.好了 嗯 谢谢你们来这 随时欢迎你们回来玩 广告之后马上回来 /201601/422320

Obituary: Helmut Schmidt Smoke and fire赫尔穆特·施密特 烟与火Helmut Schmidt, Social Democrat chancellor of West Germany, died on November 10th, aged 96赫尔穆特·施密特,西德的社会民主党总理,逝于11月10日,终年96岁HE WAS so clever, and so rude with it, that his listeners sometimes realised too late that they had been outwitted and insulted. Helmut Schmidt did not just find fools tiresome. He obliterated them. The facts were clear and the logic impeccable. So disagreement was a sign of idiocy.他的聪明和粗暴时常会让听众意识到自己上当受骗和受到羞辱的时候已经太晚了。赫尔穆特·施密特不仅发现了傻瓜令人讨厌,他还消灭了他们。既然事实清楚,逻辑不可辩驳,那么,再有不同的意见就是白痴的表现。He was impatient, too, with his own party, which failed to realise the constraints and dilemmas of power. It wanted him to spend money West Germany did not have, and to compromise with terrorists who belonged in jail. He was impatient with the anti-nuclear left, who failed to realise that nuclear-power stations were safe, and that the Soviet empire thrived on allies weakness. And he was impatient with post-Watergate America, which seemed to have lost its will to lead.他还对没能意识到权力的约束和困境的他的政党感到不耐烦。这个政党曾经想让他花西德没有的钱,同应当被关在监狱里的恐怖分子妥协。他对没能认识到核电站是安全的、苏联帝国是靠着盟友的软弱才繁荣起来的反核左派感到不耐烦。最后,他对似乎已经失去了领导意愿的后水门时代的美国感到不耐烦。In good causes and in bad he was imperious. His addiction to nicotine trumped convention and courtesy. He smoked whenever and wherever he felt like it, even in non-smoking compartments of railway carriages. “Can you ask Mr Schmidt to put his cigarette out?” a passenger asked the conductor. “Would you mind telling him yourself?” came the timid reply.不管在不在理,他都希望别人听命于他。他的烟瘾胜过了公德和礼貌。只要想抽,他就会不分时间场合地来上一根,哪怕是在火车的非吸烟车厢中。“你能让施密特先生把烟灭了吗?”一位乘客问乘务员。“对不起,麻烦你自己给他说好吗?”得到却是一个怯生生回答。Yet his brains, eloquence and willpower were unmatched in German politics. They brought him through the Nazi period, thrown out of the Hitler Youth for disloyalty but with an Iron Cross for bravery. He was one-quarter Jewish, which he concealed when he married his wife Loki and needed to prove his Aryan background. Only late in his career did an army document emerge which described him as ideologically sound.然而,在德国政坛,他的头脑、口才和毅力却是独一无二的。它们让他走过了纳粹时代,因为不忠诚而被开除出希特勒青年团,却因为勇敢而得到了铁十字勋章。他是四分之一的犹太人,他在与妻子 Loki 结婚并需要明他的的雅利安人背景时隐瞒了这一点。直到一份描述他意识形态可靠的军方文件出现为止。In post-war West Germany he flourished, making a successful career in Hamburgs city government. By commandeering army units to deal with the floods of 1962 he broke a taboo, and the law, but gaining a deserved reputation as a doer.在战后的西德,他名声大震,在汉堡市政府走上了一条成功之路。他以征调军队应对1962年的洪水的行为打破了当时的一项禁忌,违反了法律,却赢得了实干家的美誉。He replaced Willy Brandt (the victim of an East German espionage operation) in 1974, at a time when the West was reeling from the oil-price shock, terrorism and Americas humiliation in Vietnam. With his friend Valéry Giscard dEstaing (another fluent English-speaker), he launched the idea of summit governance to deal with the worlds economic woes. G7 meetings in those days were brief, informal affairs with real conversations and real decisions, not the micromanaged showpieces of today. Agreements made then laid the foundations for the modern European Union.他在西方正在承受油价冲击、恐怖主义和美国在越南失败之苦的1974年,取代了(东德间谍行动的一位受害者)维利·勃兰特。他同他的朋友吉斯卡尔·德斯坦德(另一位能够流利地讲英语的人)首倡了以峰会治理来应对全球经济困境的思想。那时的G7会议,议题简明,气氛随便,有着真正的对话和真正的决策的,不像今天这样净管些不该管的琐事。当时签订的各种协议为当代欧洲联盟打下了基础。Other leaders did not find him easy to deal with. He detested the weakness of Jimmy Carters administration, and the two men got on badly. His foreign minister, Hans-Dietrich Genscher, recalled that “Schmidt was of the opinion that the world would be fairer if he was president of the ed States and Carter the German chancellor.” The Israeli leader Menachem Begin called him “unprincipled, avaricious, heartless and lacking in human feeling” after he said that Germans living in a divided nation should feel sympathy for Palestinian self-determination.其他领导人没有发现他容易相处。他曾对吉米·卡特政府的软弱表示了极大的不满,两人相处的非常糟糕。他的外长汉斯-迪特里希·根舍曾经回忆道,“施密特当时的看法是,要是他是美国总统、卡特是德国总理的话,世界会更加美好。”在他发表了生活在一个分裂国家中的德国人应当对巴勒斯坦人的民族自决表示同情的言论后,以色列领导人贝京称他“没有原则立场、贪得无厌、没心没肺,而且缺乏人类感情“。Fairness, not fads公平而不狂热His toughness towards the nihilist terrorists of the Red Army Faction outraged many liberal-minded Germans, who felt that extensive snooping, interrogations and quasi-military justice had dful echoes of the Nazi period. They flinched when he urged America to beef up its nuclear presence in Europe in response to the Soviet Unions growing stockpile of medium-range missiles. But for him social democracy was based on fairness, not fads. He had no time for greenery, feminism or culture wars. Anyone with a vision should go and see a doctor, he once said. Far more important was bolstering the welfare system, building more houses and making Germany safe at home and abroad.他对西德红军旅恐怖分子的强硬态度曾经惹恼了许多思想开明的德国人,他们认为大范围的监听、审讯和半军事化审判让人想起了纳粹时代的可怕。当他敦促美国增加在欧洲的核存在以应对苏联日渐增加的中程导弹时,他们退缩了。但是,对他来说,社会民主的基础是公平而不是一时的狂热。他没空去关注温室效应、女权主义和文化战争。他曾经说过,有这种愿景的人都应该去看医生。在当时来说,打造福利体系、建造更多的住房,让德国人在国内和国外都有安全感才是最最重要的事情。Unfortunately his Social Democratic party thought differently, as did, increasingly, his liberal coalition partner, the FDP. Flexibility and charm were not Mr Schmidts strong points. A bit more of both might have saved him.不幸的是,他的社会民主党就像信奉自由主义的合作伙伴自由民主党一样,同他有不一样的想法。灵活和魅力不是施密特的强项,如果两样东西多那么一点话,它们也许会救了他。His nemesis was Helmut Kohl, the beefy Christian Democrat leader. Mr Schmidt underestimated his rival, mocking his mumbled provincial diction. He himself was an accomplished music and art critic, as elegant a wordsmith in prose as in speech. Mr Kohls main interest outside politics was food. But the conservative leaders willingness to listen and do deals made Mr Schmidt look arrogant and out of touch. As his coalition disintegrated, the chancellor, in government since 1969, suddenly found himself in the political wilderness. His party (like many in Europe spooked by Ronald Reagans unabashed anti-communism) veered leftwards.他的死敌是基督教民主党领导人赫尔穆特·科尔。施密特小看了这位“重量级”的对手,曾经对他混糊不清的地方口音大加嘲笑。他本人是一个颇有成就的音乐和艺术家,说起话来,用词文雅。科尔在政治之外的主要兴趣是美食。但是,这位保守派领导人的倾听和合作意愿却让施密特看上去傲慢无礼和不可接近。当他的联合政府解体时,这位自1969年以来就一直是政府总理的人,突然发现自己成了孤家寡人。他的政党(就像当时许多被里根毫不畏惧的反共产主义所吓倒的欧洲政党一样)倒向了左派。Mr Schmidt, still puffing away on his beloved menthols (stockpiled in case of a ban) and playing the piano (of which he had a near-professional mastery), varied his views hardly an iota. As publisher of Die Zeit, Germanys most heavyweight weekly, he became its leading commentator—more influential there in shaping opinion, perhaps, than as an embattled chancellor. He deplored worries about climate change: population growth was a far bigger problem. Intervention in other countries’ affairs was a mistake (though he made an exception for Vladimir Putins war in Ukraine: that was a justified response to Western meddling). Unpopular views—but the facts and logic were clear. Anyone who disagreed was stupid.当时仍在吞云吐雾(他抽剩下来的过滤嘴因为一项禁令都被保存了起来)、仍在弹钢琴(他的钢琴水平接近大师级)的施密特丝毫也没有改变他的观点。作为德国的重量级周刊——《时代周报》的发行人,他成了这家报纸的首席员——在形成舆论方面,这个位置也许要比一位苦苦挣扎的总理更有影响力。他探讨了对于气候变化的种种担忧:人口增长是一个更大的问题。介入他国事务的干预是一个错误(尽管他曾经为普京在乌克兰的战争破了一次例:那是对西方干预的一种合情合理的应对)。不受欢迎的观点——但是事实和逻辑都是清晰的。谁不同意,谁就是傻子。 /201512/419198


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