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来源:家庭医生常识    发布时间:2019年06月18日 19:51:03    编辑:admin         

What is in a word? When it is packed with as much moral zeal as “meritocracy”, the answer is a lot. A meritocrat owes his success to effort and talent. Luck has nothing to do with it — or so he tells himself. He shares his view with everyone else, including those too slow or indolent to follow his example. Things only go wrong when the others dispute it.一个词里包含什么?如果这个词充斥着和“精英统治”一样多的道德热情,是包含很多。一名精英会将自己的成功归因于努力和天分。他的成功和运气毫无关系——或者他是这样告诉自己的。他与其他所有人分享他的观点,包括那些太迟钝或者太懒惰以至于无法效仿他的人。只是当其他人提出异议时,问题就出现了。Now magnify that to a nation of 320m people — one that prides itself on being a meritocracy. Imagine that between a half and two-thirds of its people, depending on how the question is framed, disagree. They believe the system’s divisions are self-perpetuating. They used not to think that way.现在,把这种情况放大到一个拥有3.2亿人口的国家——一个以实行精英统治而自豪的国家。想象一下,根据问题的表达方式不同,有一半到三分之二的人表示异议。他们现在相信,体系的分化是自我持续的。他们过去并不这么想。Imagine, also, that the meritocrats are too enamoured of their just rewards to see it. The fact that they are split — one group calling itself Democratic, the other Republican — is detail. They are two sides of a debased coin. Sooner or later something will give.再想象一下,精英们太过醉心于自己得到的合理回报,因而并没有看到这一点。他们分裂成两个集团——一个自称民主党,另一个自称共和党,这个事实只是细枝末节。他们是同一块劣质硬币的两面。迟早会出事。An exaggeration? Financial Times ers might be inclined to think so. The fact that Donald Trump has completed a hostile takeover of one of those groups — the Republicans — is a shock to everyone, including, I suspect, the property billionaire himself. The rest should not be a surprise.夸张吗?英国《金融时报》的读者可能倾向于这么认为。唐纳德#8226;特朗普(Donald Trump)完成了对其中一个集团——共和党——的“敌意收购”,这让所有人都感到震惊,我怀疑也包括这位地产亿万富翁本人在内。事情的其他部分就不应令人惊讶了。Since the late 1960s both parties, in different ways, have turned a blind eye to the economic interests of the middle class. In 1972 the McGovern-Fraser Commission revamped the Democratic party’s rules for selecting its nominee after the disastrous 1968 convention in Chicago. The overhaul changed the party’s course. It included obligatory seats for women, ethnic minorities and young people — but left out working males altogether. “We aren’t going to let these Camelot Harvard-Berkeley types take over our party,” said the head of the AFL-CIO, the largest American union federation. That is precisely what happened. Democrats cemented the shift from a class-based party to an ethnic coalition by enshrining affirmative action for non-whites. Getting a leg up to university, the ultimate meritocratic vehicle, was based on your skin colour rather than your economic situation.自上世纪60年代末以来,两党以不同的方式对中产阶层的经济利益视而不见。在1968年在芝加哥举办的灾难性民主党代表大会后,1972年,麦戈文-弗雷泽委员会(McGovern-Fraser Commission)修改了民主党选择被提名人的规则。这次彻底改革改变了该党的方针。该规则规定必须为女性、少数族裔和年轻人提供一些席位——却完全忽略了工薪阶层的男性。“我们不会让这些高高在上的哈佛(Harvard)-伯克利(Berkeley)人掌控我们的党,”美国最大的工会联合会美国劳工联合会-产业工会联合会(AFL-CIO)的负责人说。而这恰恰发生了。通过把针对非白人的平权行动奉为圭臬,民主党加强了从基于阶层的党派到种族联盟的转变。大学是成为精英的终极手段,申请大学时的优势不是基于你的经济状况,而是基于你的肤色。Unsurprisingly, swaths of the white middle class turned Republican. Forty years on, many Democrats, not least Bernie Sanders’ supporters, are suffering buyer’s remorse. Before he became president, Barack Obama argued it would be fairer to base affirmative action on income not colour. “My daughters should probably be treated by any admissions officer as folks who are pretty advantaged,” he said.毫不奇怪,大批美国白人中产阶层转向了共和党。40年后的今天,很多民主党人,尤其是伯尼#8226;桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)的持者们,都感到了一种“买家的懊悔”。在当选总统前,巴拉克#8226;奥巴马(Barack Obama)表示,基于收入而非肤色来实施平权行动更为公平。“我的女儿们或许应该被任何招生人员视为相当有优势的人,”他说。Last week it was announced that Malia Obama had been accepted into Harvard, her father’s alma mater. About a third of legacy applicants, those whose parent attended, are accepted into Harvard. No one suggests she is not deserving of her place. However, there are plenty of lower-income black and white children who do not benefit from the advantages Malia Obama or Chelsea Clinton (Stanford and Oxford) had from birth.上周,据悉马莉娅#8226;奥巴马(Malia Obama)被哈佛——她父亲的母校录取。那些父母曾就读哈佛的申请者中,有三分之一的人也被哈佛录取。没人说马莉娅#8226;奥巴马不够格被录取。然而,有很多低收入的黑人孩子和白人孩子不享有她或者切尔西#8226;克林顿(Chelsea Clinton)(就读于斯坦福大学(Stanford)和牛津大学(Oxford))与生俱来的优势。The US labour market remains impressively meritocratic. But what happens to a worker in the 25 years before he or she enters it is anything but. Hence the term “hereditary meritocracy”. Richard Reeves of the Brookings Institution calls them “dream hoarders”.美国劳动力市场仍然非常举人唯贤。但劳动者在进入劳动力市场之前的25年中的经历绝非如此。因此,就出现了“世袭精英制”这个术语。布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)的理查德#8226;里夫斯(Richard Reeves)把他们称为“囤梦者”。Judged by aptitude, almost half those in America’s top two-fifths income bracket are there because of the luck of family background. Think of the value of those unpaid internships. A big share of those in the bottom fifth would be in the top if they had the same life chances.从天资来判断,处于美国收入水平前五分之二的人中近半都是因为家族背景才有幸拥有这样的收入。想想那些无薪实习劳动的价值。如果在生活中拥有同样的机会,处于收入水平最底端五分之一的人中有很大一部分人本该进入最高收入阶层。Middle-class whites derived no greater benefit from voting Republican. For years strategists such as Karl Rove played on cultural fears — often stoking racial resentment — to galvanise the vote.中产阶级白人没有从持共和党中得到太大好处。多年来,卡尔#8226;罗夫(Karl Rove)这样的谋划高手利用文化担忧——通常会煽动种族仇恨——来刺激中产阶级投票。Once in office, Republicans pursued tax cuts for the rich. Ignored by both parties and disproportionately hit by the downsides of globalisation, blue-collar whites fell into depression. For the first time, life expectancy among American whites is falling.一旦上台,共和党便为富人谋求减税。被两党忽视的蓝领白人受到了全球化负面影响的极大冲击,陷入困境。美国白人群体的预期寿命首次出现下滑。To add insult to injury, poor whites alone are still fair game for ridicule. They are excluded from the rules of political correctness. This is the demographic that eats itself into obesity in front of bad TV — reality shows such as The Apprentice, which brought Mr Trump into their lives. Here was a man who spoke his mind and fired people. He may have been a schmuck but he was an open book. “I love the poorly educated,” he said after one primary victory. Mr Trump knows his market.雪上加霜的是,只有贫困白人仍然是可被嘲笑的对象。他们被政治正确性的规则排除在外。该群体看着糟糕的电视节目——把特朗普带入他们生活的《学徒》(The Apprentice)这样的真人秀——从自己的窘境中取乐。节目中,特朗普会直言自己的想法,也会炒人鱿鱼。他或许曾经是一个笨蛋,但他就像一本摊开的书一样。“我爱受教育程度低的人,”他在一次初选胜利后表示。特朗普知道自己的市场所在。Which brings us back to that supercharged word. Michael Young, the British sociologist who coined it in his 1958 book, The Rise of the Meritocracy, would feel vindicated. Though the term soon lost its irony, Young meant it as a satire on the imagined ruling classes of the future. Meritocratic elites “can be insufferably smug”, he said in a 2001 critique of Prime Minister Tony Blair’s misuse of the word. The rest, meanwhile, “can easily become demoralised by being looked down on so woundingly by people who have done well for themselves”.这把我们带回到那个超带劲的词。英国社会学家迈克尔#8226;杨(Michael Young)在其1958年出版的著作《精英统治的崛起》(The Rise of the Meritocracy)中发明了这个词,他会认为自己是无辜的。杨发明这个词的原意是讽刺那些想象中的未来统治阶级,尽管这个词很快失去了讽刺意味。他在2001年批评时任英国首相托尼#8226;布莱尔(Tony Blair)错误地使用该词时表示,精英统治中的精英“可能自以为是得令人无法忍受”。与此同时,其他人“可能很容易会因为被那些飞黄腾达之人以一种伤人的方式看不起而意志消沉”。Young forecast his meritocracy would break down by 2033. The chances are it will survive 2016. Hillary Clinton, this year’s meritocratic standard-bearer, looks likely to win in November. But polls say Mr Trump would win a clear majority of the white vote. Think about that. Mr Trump is the president white America wants. It is hard to believe it would be on merit.杨预测,精英统治会在2033年之前瓦解。它很有可能会撑过2016年。今年精英统治的旗手希拉里#8226;克林顿(Hillary Clinton),似乎可能会在11月赢得大选。但是,民调显示,特朗普将赢得明显多数的白人选票。想一想这个问题。特朗普是美国白人所希望的总统。很难相信这是因为他的贤能。 /201605/442987。

Back in the 1960s there was a briefly popular wave of “futurism,” of books and articles attempting to predict the changes ahead. One of the best-known, and certainly the most detailed, of these works was Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener’s “The Year 2000” (1967), which offered, among other things, a systematic list of technological innovations Kahn and Wiener considered “very likely in the last third of the 20th century.”早在20世纪60年代,“未来主义”思潮曾经有过一个短暂的兴盛,许多书籍文章都试图预测未来的社会变化。其中最著名,也绝对是最详尽的一本书,是1967年出版的赫尔曼·卡恩(Herman Kahn)和安东尼·维纳(Anthony J. Wiener)的《2000年》(The Year 2000)。在这本书里,卡恩和维纳系统化地列出了一份他们认为“在20世纪最后那三分之一的时间里最有可能发生的科技创新”清单。Unfortunately, the two authors were mostly wrong. They didn’t miss much, foreseeing developments that recognizably correspond to all the main elements of the information technology revolution, including smartphones and the Internet. But a majority of their predicted innovations (“individual flying platforms”) hadn’t arrived by 2000 — and still haven’t arrived, a decade and a half later.遗憾的是,这两位作者的预测并不太准确。这并不是说他们有什么遗漏。信息科技革命主要元素所带来的一切发展变革,包括智能手机和互联网,都在他们的预见之中。然而,他们预测的绝大多数创新(例如“私人飞行平台”)都落空了,不但未能在2000年实现,即使在15年之后的今天也仍然未见踪影。The truth is that if you step back from the headlines about the latest gadget, it becomes obvious that we’ve made much less progress since 1970 — and experienced much less alteration in the fundamentals of life — than almost anyone expected. Why?如果你跳出那些铺天盖地的最新产品报道,就会发现一个明显的现实:自1970年以来,我们社会的进步,以及我们基本生活方式的改变,远逊于我们所有人的预期。Robert J. Gordon, a distinguished macro and economic historian at Northwestern, has been arguing for a long time against the techno-optimism that saturates our culture, with its constant assertion that we’re in the midst of revolutionary change. Starting at the height of the dot-com frenzy, he has repeatedly called for perspective: Developments in information and communication technology, he has insisted, just don’t measure up to past achievements. Specifically, he has argued that the I.T. revolution is less important than any one of the five Great Inventions that powered economic growth from 1870 to 1970: electricity, urban sanitation, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, the internal combustion engine and modern communication.长期以来,科技乐观主义渗透在我们的社会文化之中,人们一直认为我们所身处的时代是一个革命性的变革时代。任教于西北大学的罗伯特·戈登(Robert J. Gordon),一个杰出的宏观经济学家和经济历史学家,却始终对这种科技乐观主义持反对态度。从互联网最繁荣时期开始,他一再警示世人保持冷静。他指出,信息通讯技术的发展根本不能与过去的成就相提并论。具体而言,他认为:电力、城市卫生、化学与制药、内燃机和现代通讯这“五大发明”推动了从1870到1970这100年间的经济发展,而信息科技革命与其中任何一项发明都无法比拟。In “The Rise and Fall of American Growth,” Gordon doubles down on that theme, declaring that the kind of rapid economic growth we still consider our due, and expect to continue forever, was in fact a one-time-only event. First came the Great Inventions, almost all dating from the late 19th century. Then came refinement and exploitation of those inventions — a process that took time, and exerted its peak effect on economic growth between 1920 and 1970. Everything since has at best been a faint echo of that great wave, and Gordon doesn’t expect us ever to see anything similar.在《美国增长的起落》(The Rise and Fall of American Growth)这本书中,戈登进一步强调了这一论点,宣称这种经济的快速增长并非理所当然。它只是历史上发生的一个一次性事件,不会如我们所愿一直持续下去。首先,几乎所有“五大发明”都发生在19世纪后期;接着是对这些发明进行提炼和开发的漫长过程,其对经济增长的影响在1920到1970年期间达到顶峰;那以后的一切都不过是之前这个伟大变革的微弱余波而已。戈登认为我们不会再次看到历史的重演。Is he right? My answer is a definite maybe. But whether or not you end up agreeing with Gordon’s thesis, this is a book well worth ing — a magisterial combination of deep technological history, vivid portraits of daily life over the past six generations and careful economic analysis. Non-economists may find some of the charts and tables heavy going, but Gordon never loses sight of the real people and real lives behind those charts. This book will challenge your views about the future; it will definitely transform how you see the past.他说得是否正确?我的回答是:绝对有可能。不过,不管你最终是否同意戈登的论断,这本书都值得一读。它将深刻的科技发展史、过去六代人日常生活的生动描述,以及细致的经济分析完美地整合在一起。如果你不是一个经济学家,也许你会觉得有些图表比较难懂,但是戈登从未忽视那些图表背后的民众真实生活。这本书不但会挑战你对未来的视角,而且肯定会改变你对过去的看法。Indeed, almost half the book is devoted to changes that took place before World War II. Others have covered this ground — most notably Daniel Boorstin in “The Americans: The Democratic Experience.” Even knowing this literature, however, I was fascinated by Gordon’s account of the changes wrought by his Great Inventions. As he says, “Except in the rural South, daily life for every American changed beyond recognition between 1870 and 1940.” Electric lights replaced candles and whale oil, flush toilets replaced outhouses, cars and electric trains replaced horses. (In the 1880s, parts of New York’s financial district were seven feet deep in manure.)这本书一半以上篇幅都被用来专门描绘“二战”之前所发生的变化。对这一阶段的研究不乏著述,其中最引人注目的是丹尼尔·布尔斯廷(Daniel Boorstin)的《美国人:南北战争以来的经历》(The Americans:The Democratic Experience)。虽然我对这些文献相当熟悉,戈登对其“五大发明”所带来的变革之描述依然使我着迷。如他所说:“除了南方乡下,每一个美国人的日常生活在1870到1940年间都发生了翻天覆地的变化。”电灯代替了蜡烛和油灯,抽水马桶代替了屋外的茅房,汽车和电动火车代替了马车(在19世纪80年代,纽约金融区的一部分还泡在七英尺深的马粪中呢)。 Meanwhile, backbreaking toil both in the workplace and in the home was for the most part replaced by far less onerous employment. This is a point all too often missed by economists, who tend to think only about how much purchasing power people have, not about what they have to do to get it, and Gordon does an important service by reminding us that the conditions under which men and women labor are as important as the amount they get paid.同时,无论是在工作场所,还是家庭生活中,繁重的劳作大多被相对轻松的工作所代替。这一点经常被经济学家们所忘记。他们一般只考虑民众的购买力,而不考虑他们为了获得这些购买力所需要付出的劳动。戈登的重要贡献是提醒我们,民众的劳作条件与他们的收入所得同样重要。Aside from its being an interesting story, however, why is it important to study this transformation? Mainly, Gordon suggests — although these are my words, not his — to provide a baseline. What happened between 1870 and 1940, he argues, and I would agree, is what real transformation looks like. Any claims about current progress need to be compared with that baseline to see how they measure up.这段历史是一段很有意思的往事。然而,除此之外,对这些变迁的研究究竟有什么重要性呢?我的理解是这样的:戈登提出,这段历史可以为我们研究后期历史提供一个对比的基准。戈登声称,1870到1940年这段时期是一个真正变革的样本,我同意他的这个说法。我们需要与这个历史上的变革时期去比较,才能对现代社会发展进程的快慢做一个恰当的判断。And it’s hard not to agree with him that nothing that has happened since is remotely comparable. Urban life in America on the eve of World War II was aly recognizably modern; you or I could walk into a 1940s apartment, with its indoor plumbing, gas range, electric lights, refrigerator and telephone, and we’d find it basically functional. We’d be annoyed at the lack of television and Internet — but not horrified or disgusted.如此,我们不得不赞同他所说:1940年以后所发生的一切,与以前根本无法相提并论。“二战”前夕的美国城市生活已经相当现代化;我们可以随意走进一间1940年时的公寓,看到它里面的下水设施、煤气灶、电灯、冰箱和电话,我们会觉得它已经具备一间房子的所有基本功能。也许我们会因为没有电视和网络而感到不便,但却不会感到无法忍受。By contrast, urban Americans from 1940 walking into 1870-style accommodations — which they could still do in the rural South — were indeed horrified and disgusted. Life fundamentally improved between 1870 and 1940 in a way it hasn’t since.相反,1940年的城市美国人却会对1870年代的住房感到无法忍受——那时在美国南方乡下还可以找到这种房子。在1870年到1940年间,人类的生活条件发生了前所未有的根本变化。Now, in 1940 many Americans were aly living in what was recognizably the modern world, but many others weren’t. What happened over the next 30 years was that the further maturing of the Great Inventions led to rapidly rising incomes and a sp of that modern lifestyle to the nation as a whole. But then everything slowed down. And Gordon argues that the slowdown is likely to be permanent: The great age of progress is behind us. But is Gordon just from the wrong generation, unable to fully appreciate the wonders of the latest technology? I suspect that things like social media make a bigger positive difference to people’s lives than he acknowledges. But he makes two really good points that throw quite a lot of cold water on the claims of techno-optimists.当然,在1940年,尽管许多美国人已经过上了比较现代的生活,但很多人还未能享受同等条件。在接下来的30年里,随着“五大发明”进一步成熟,人们的收入迅速提升,现代生活方式在全国大幅扩展。但是,在此之后,进展逐步放缓。戈登认为这种缓慢的进展可能才是永久常态,大变革时期已经结束。然而,这会不会是因为戈登那代人头脑已经老化,无法充分体会最新科技之神奇呢?我认为,戈登的确没有完全意识到像网络社交媒体这样的新科技给人们生活带来的正面影响。但是,有两点他说得非常好,十分切中科技乐观主义者观点的要害。First, he points out that genuinely major innovations normally bring about big changes in business practices, in what workplaces look like and how they function. And there were some changes along those lines between the mid-1990s and the mid-2000s — but not much since, which is evidence for Gordon’s claim that the main impact of the I.T. revolution has aly happened.首先,他指出:真正的重大革新往往会根本改变商业行为,为企业工作场所及其职能带来巨大的变化。20世纪90年代中期开始的这10年中,这方面的确发生了一些变化,然而那之后,就再没有什么改变了。这正印了戈登的断言:信息科技革命的主要影响已经过去了。Second, one of the major arguments of techno-optimists is that official measures of economic growth understate the real extent of progress, because they don’t fully account for the benefits of truly new goods. Gordon concedes this point, but notes that it was always thus — and that the understatement of progress was probably bigger during the great prewar transformation than it is today.其次,技术乐观主义者的一个主要观点是,经济增长的官方数据低估了进步的真实程度,因为他们没有充分考虑真正的新产品所带来的益处。戈登承认这一点,但指出,这和过去并没有什么不同。相反,在战前的大变革时期,这种低估很有可能要比今天更甚。So what does this say about the future? Gordon suggests that the future is all too likely to be marked by stagnant living standards for most Americans, because the effects of slowing technological progress will be reinforced by a set of “headwinds”: rising inequality, a plateau in education levels, an aging population and more.这对未来意味着什么呢?戈登认为,对大多数美国人来说,未来很有可能是生活水平停滞不前。技术进步的缓慢将被一系列“逆向”因素强化:贫富差距不断加大、教育水平不再提高、人口趋于老龄化,等等。It’s a shocking prediction for a society whose self-image, arguably its very identity, is bound up with the expectation of constant progress. And you have to wonder about the social and political consequences of another generation of stagnation or decline in working-class incomes.我们社会的自我形象,甚至可以说自我认同,都以不断的发展进步为核心。戈登对未来的预测实在是振聋发聩、发人深省。我们不得不认真思考,如果下一代工薪阶层收入继续停滞或下降,这将会带来什么样的社会和政治后果。Of course, Gordon could be wrong: Maybe we’re on the cusp of truly transformative change, say from artificial intelligence or radical progress in biology (which would bring their own risks). But he makes a powerful case. Perhaps the future isn’t what it used to be.当然,戈登也有可能错了。也许我们正处在一个真正的革命性变革的前夕,这种变革也许是人工智能或者在生物学上的根本性进展(当然伴随而来的还有相应的风险)。但是他的确提出了一个强有力的论。也许,未来和过去的确不再相同。 /201602/426167。

China’s 322nd richest citizen eats just one meal a day, at 7pm, which possibly explains Zhang Yue’s extreme bad temper as he sits down for an interview in the early afternoon.中国富豪中排名第322位的张跃,每天只在晚上7点吃一顿饭,这或许可以解释他在午后不久接受采访时为什么脾气那么差。Then again, his anger and impatience could also be prompted by questions about his long-thwarted ambition to build the world’s tallest skyscraper.再者,他多年来未能一偿建造世界最高楼的抱负,与此相关的问题可能也激起了他的怒火和不耐烦。“Of course we will build our sky city,” he says, referring to the 838m-tall building he wants to construct using prefabricated steel sections that fit together like Lego bricks.“我们当然要建造天空城市,”他说,指的是想要像拼装乐高(Lego)积木那样利用预制钢组件建造一座高达838米的天大楼。His plan is to build it near where we are sitting in his dimly lit office on the outskirts of Changsha, a smallish provincial Chinese city with a population of 5.3m.他计划在自己位于长沙郊区、灯光昏暗的办公室(我们就是在这里采访他)附近建造这座天大楼,长沙是一个人口530万、规模不大的省会城市。The building has been delayed since Mr Zhang broke ground in 2013, thanks to “people who intervened and made trouble, [government] leaders who were scared and other people who meddled and ruined our plans,” he says.这个项目2013年刚破土就停工了,因为“有人阻拦,(政府)领导担心,还有人从中作梗,破坏我们的计划,”他说。Chinese media say Mr Zhang’s plan for a structure 10m taller than the world’s record-holder — the Burj Khalifa in Dubai — was put on hold because of concerns about the safety of his proprietary technology, which he claimed would allow him to complete construction in only 90 days.中国媒体称,张跃建造比目前全球第一高楼——迪拜哈里法塔(Burj Khalifa)——高10米的天大楼的计划被叫停,是因为有关方面担心其专有技术的安全性。张跃声称,该技术可以让他在短短90天内盖完这座大楼。Throughout the first half of the interview, Mr Zhang barely looks up from his smartphone and when he does he closes his eyes and punctuates his speech with long pauses.采访的前半程,张跃的眼睛基本上没有离开过自己的手机,而当他抬头时,就闭目养神,长时间不吭声。Several times during our meeting he declares the interview over before ignoring his own pronouncement. But despite his rudeness it is hard not to be impressed by Mr Zhang’s vision to overhaul and dominate the global construction industry.在我们会面期间,他多次宣布采访结束,但随后他又忽略自己说的话。虽然他举止无礼,但他想要改革全球建筑行业并成为领军企业的志向很难不给你留下深刻印象。“Construction is one of the most polluting of all industries but I can make the most environmentally sound buildings for half the price and 10 times the speed of anyone else,” Mr Zhang says.“建设业是污染最严重的行业之一,但我能够以别人一半的造价、10倍的速度建成最环保的建筑,”他说。He believes his company, Broad Group, which he founded in the late 1980s making boilers and air-conditioning units, and where he remains chairman and CEO, will eventually control 30 per cent of the global construction industry with its revolutionary but largely unproven technology.他相信,凭借其革命性(但基本上未经检验)的技术,远大科技集团(Broad Group)最终将控制全球30%的建筑市场。张跃在上世纪80年代末创建了这家制造锅炉和空调设备的企业集团,目前仍担任集团董事长兼总裁。“People say I’m crazy but this does not surprise me since they said that when I first started making air conditioners too,” he says.“人们说我疯了,我不觉得奇怪,当初我开始造空调时他们也这么说,”他说。Born in Changsha in 1960, Mr Zhang was unable to attend school until he was nine years old thanks to the Cultural Revolution, which temporarily shut down most schools in the country.张跃1960年出生在湖南,由于文化大革命导致中国大多数学校都暂时停课,他直到9岁才上学。When the Cultural Revolution ended in 1976, university entrance exams were restarted and Mr Zhang was accepted to an academy to study fine art. As if to prove his education did not go to waste, Mr Zhang stops the interview, pulls out a pen and paper and sketches his interviewer, eliciting enthusiastic applause from several staff lurking in the back of his dimly lit office.1976年文革结束,高考恢复,张跃被一家专科学校录取,学习美术专业。仿佛为了明自己的专业没有荒废,他停下谈话,拿出纸笔,给我画了一张素描,灯光昏暗的办公室里坐在后面的几个工作人员对此抱以热烈的掌声。After working as a librarian and teaching drawing at primary school, Mr Zhang started a home renovations company before establishing Broad Group with his brother in 1988 to provide boilers for newly built factories.他先后做过图书管理员、美术老师,开过一家室内装潢公司,之后和自己的弟弟在1988年创立了远大集团,为新建工厂提供锅炉。“I just wanted to make money and I had no ideals,” he says. With factories springing up across the country, Broad’s industrial air conditioning units proved hugely popular and Mr Zhang soon became one of the country’s richest business people — his wealth is estimated at about .5bn.“我过去只想赚钱,没有什么理想,”他说。随着全国各地的工厂雨后春笋般出现,远大生产的工业空调设备深受市场欢迎,张跃很快便成了了中国最富有的商人之一——目前他的财富估计约为15亿美元。He was one of the first people in China to buy a private jet. At one point he personally owned seven aircraft but after an epiphany about 15 years ago he decided to protect the environment and tackle climate change instead.他是中国最早买私人喷气式飞机的人之一。他一度拥有7架飞机,但约15年前一场大彻大悟让他决定转向保护自然环境、应对气候变化问题。“Private jets are really very polluting so now I only have three,” he explains. “I was killing 16 trees every week.”“私人飞机真的对环境非常不好,所以我现在只剩三架了,”他解释说,“我过去每周的消耗相当于砍掉16棵树。”A desire to mitigate the shocking environmental degradation he saw all around him in China led him to enter the construction industry and establish a subsidiary, Broad Sustainable Building, in 2009.他希望减缓中国令人触目惊心的环境退化,正是这种渴望将他带入建筑业,并于2009年创建子公司——远大可建科技有限公司(Broad Sustainable Building)。Although his ambition to build the world’s tallest skyscraper is yet to be realised, Mr Zhang’s prefabricated steel technology has been used to construct about 30 shorter buildings.虽然建造世界最高天大楼的抱负尚未实现,但张跃的预制钢构件技术已被用来建造了约30栋不那么高的大楼。The most prominent example is a 57-storey “mini sky city” built on Mr Zhang’s Broad Town campus on the outskirts of Changsha in just 19 days last year. The time-lapse YouTube of its construction has been viewed about 2.5m times.最著名的就是在长沙郊区张跃的远大城仅用19天就建成的57层的“小天城”。一段记录这座大楼建造过程的延时拍摄视频在YouTube上的访问量达到了约250万次。The windows are four panes thick and designed not to open — polluted air from outside cannot enter and internal temperatures can be regulated more efficiently. Residents separate their rubbish into eight different categories via evacuation tubes from each floor.大楼的窗户采用四层玻璃,并设计为无法打开——外面受污染的空气进不来,楼内温度可以更高效地调节。楼内居民通过各层安装的真空管道将垃圾分为8类。The rest of the Broad Town campus is a physical manifestation of Mr Zhang’s mix of hubris and environmental evangelism.远大城的其他区域鲜明地展现了张跃性格上的狂妄和宣传环保的热情。There is a small forest where animals are allowed to roam, an organic farm to feed company employees, a 40m-high golden Egyptian pyramid, a scale replica of a Versailles-like palace, and dozens of statues of historical figures from Abraham Lincoln to Plato.这里有一片动物们可以游荡其中的小树林、一个为公司员工提供食材的有机农场、一座40米高的金色埃及金字塔、一处仿凡尔赛宫建筑以及亚伯拉罕.林肯(Abraham Lincoln)、柏拉图(Plato)等许多历史人物的雕像。A bronze statue of Napoleon on horseback stands in front of the faux palace and Mr Zhang, who is said to be the same height as the French autocrat, is fond of ing him in corporate handbooks.一尊马背上的拿破仑(Napoleon)铜像矗立在山寨凡尔赛宫前,张跃——据称与这位法国独裁者身高相仿——非常喜欢在公司手册中引用拿破仑的话。All Broad Group job applicants must undergo a week-long military-style boot camp and memorise Mr Zhang’s code of 110 rules, including one requiring employees to “love Broad Group”. Another orders them to brush their teeth twice day.所有远大集团的求职者必须经受为期一周的军事化训练,还要记住张跃撰写的包含110条规定的员工守则,其中一条要求员工“热爱远大”。还有一条规定要求他们每日刷两次牙。Mr Zhang makes no apologies for his uncompromising corporate culture.张跃并未对自己严厉的企业文化进行辩解。“This is my personality,” he says.“我的性格就是这样,”他说。“In a very short time I became a very top entrepreneur making air conditioning units and I perfected air conditioning. Later I decided I needed to perfect the environment. You can’t do this without being a perfectionist.”“在非常短的时间内,我成为了一个制造空调设备的非常顶尖的企业家,我完善了空调系统。后来,我决定,我需要去改善环境。如果不是一个完美主义者,你就做不到这一点。” /201611/479996。

CARDIFF, Wales — With thunderous roars and flashes of blue light, an electric arc furnace at a steel mill in this industrial city melts 170 tons of scrap metal at a time, which is made into reinforcing bars for construction projects across Britain.威尔士加的夫——伴随着雷鸣般的响声和蓝色闪光,在这个工业城市的一座钢铁厂里,电弧炉一次可以融化170吨废铁,将它们制成英国各地建设项目所需的钢筋。The furnace, decked out with all the latest gear, helps keep costs down by relying on local scrap instead of imported materials. It was part of a broad 0 million investment plan to make the steel mill competitive and profitable.这座电弧炉拥有各种最新装备,使用当地废钢铁而非进口材料,有助于降低成本。这是一个综合投资计划的一部分。整个计划规模达5亿美元,旨在提升这家钢铁厂的竞争力和赢利能力。But China has stymied the strategy.然而,中国让这个计划搁浅了。The steel mill, owned by the privately held Celsa Group of Spain, just cannot compete with Chinese rivals, which offered products at 20 percent below prevailing rates in Britain. Celsa estimates that Chinese companies at one point accounted for about half of the region’s sales in a certain type of reinforcing bar, up from essentially nothing just four years ago.这座钢铁厂隶属于西班牙私人公司Celsa集团,完全无法与中国对手竞争,因为中国产品的报价比英国当前的市价低20%。Celsa集团估计,在某个时候,该地区销售的某类型钢筋大约一半来自中国公司,而仅仅四年之前它们的份额几乎为零。“It’s nice to have free trade, but it has to be fair,” said Luis Sanz, the managing director for British operations at Celsa.“自由贸易是件好事,但前提是必须公平,”Celsa集团负责英国业务的执行董事路易斯·桑斯(Luis Sanz)说。The steel industry sits at the crux of a major debate playing out across the world economy, one that could soon be intensified by a looming change in the global trade rules.钢铁行业处在一个涉及全球经济各领域的重大争议的核心,而全球贸易规则即将发生改变,这个问题可能也会很快随之愈演愈烈。As China’s economy has slowed, the country’s manufacturers, in varied areas like solar panels, tires, aluminum and shoes, have been in a desperate hunt to maintain sales and avoid layoffs. Looking beyond their borders, many are offering rock-bottom prices to win orders.随着中国经济放缓,该国太阳能组件、轮胎、铝材和鞋等各种领域的生产商正在拼命维持销售,避免裁减人员。放眼全球,为了赢得订单,很多公司报出了最低价格。The heavy discounting has fed a backlash. Politicians like the American presidential candidates Donald J. Trump and Bernie Sanders are railing against free trade, saying the rules hurt domestic workers. Countries are crying foul, claiming that Chinese exporters are dumping goods.这样的大幅折扣引发了抵触情绪。美国总统候选人唐纳德·J·特朗普(Donald J. Trump)和伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)等政界人士在大力批驳自由贸易,宣称其中的规则给美国劳动者造成了损失。各国纷纷大呼不公,声称中国正在向国外倾销商品。And the dynamics are getting more complicated, as a crucial provision of global trade rules expires in December.随着全球贸易规则的一个关键条款将在今年12月到期,情况正在变得愈加复杂。When China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, the country was labeled a nonmarket economy, at the insistence of the ed States and Europe. The technical designation makes it easier to prove that China is dumping goods in foreign markets, allowing countries to slap tariffs on those products. In March, the ed States imposed a prohibitive 266 percent tariff on certain Chinese steel makers for selling below cost.中国于2001年加入世界贸易组织(WTO)的时候,在美国和欧洲的坚持下,中国被打上了“非市场经济体”的标签。有了这个技术性的说法,要明中国向海外市场倾销商品就变得比较容易,于是各国便可以对这些产品征收关税。今年3月,美国对一些低于成本价销售产品的中国钢铁企业征收了266%的惩罚性关税。Calculating production costs in China is tricky. The true costs are often obscured by politically guided policies that benefit companies, including state-backed loans at below-market interest rates and free land for job-creating factories.计算中国的生产成本是一件颇为棘手的事情。政治导向的政策会给企业带来一些优惠,比如提供低于市场利率的国家扶持贷款、为提供就业岗位的工厂无偿供应土地等等,而这些政策常常会掩盖真实的成本。Given China’s designation in the W.T.O., the ed States, Europe and others can use a proxy country, a locale with a similar level of income and better data like Poland, Thailand or South Africa, to help determine production costs. The proxy countries often have higher costs than China, which has greater economies of scale.由于中国被WTO视为非市场经济国家,美国、欧洲和其他国家就可以使用一个收入水平相同、但数据更准确的地区作为代理国——比如波兰、泰国和南非——来帮助确定产品的成本。这些代理国的成本常常高于中国,因为中国拥有更大的规模经济。China is beginning a global lobbying push to bar the use of proxy countries. Chinese ministers have been meeting with overseas leaders and with executives of businesses that sell to China. The country is calling for W.T.O. members to “acknowledge China’s market economy status” and “to adopt the necessary measures as soon as possible,” the commerce ministry said in a faxed response to questions.中国已经开始在全球开展游说活动,希望停止使用代理国的做法。中国的部长们一直在与外国领导人及在中国销售产品的企业高管沟通。商务部在一份回应问题的传真中表示,中国呼吁WTO成员“承认中国的市场经济地位”,并“尽快采取必要措施”。But the rules are somewhat ambiguous, complicating China’s efforts. The 2001 W.T.O. agreement explicitly authorizes the use of proxy countries through December in cases against China, but it is silent about what happens after that.不过,规则本身有些模糊,给中国的努力增添了变数。2001年的WTO协议明确规定,到今年12月底,针对中国使用代理国的做法将到期,但却没有说之后会怎么样。The Europeans and Americans are skeptical about whether China actually qualifies as a so-called market economy. In a market economy, supply and demand are the guiding forces. In China, the government also plays a major role, dictating investments, strategy, even when a plant can close.中国是否真的有资格获得市场经济的地位?欧洲和美国对此表示怀疑。在市场经济体中,供需才是主导力量。但在中国,政府也发挥了重要作用,能够决定投资和策略,乃至一家工厂什么时候可以关停。China’s policies have helped create extensive overcapacity. China makes 50 percent of the world’s steel, 55 percent of its aluminum and 60 percent of its cement, even as its domestic demand has weakened.对于大量的产能过剩,中国的政策起到了推波助澜的作用。即便国内需求有所减弱,中国出品的钢铁仍占全球产量的50%,铝材占55%,水泥占60%。“They’re nowhere near a market economy, and it’s delusional to think that they are,” said Leo W. Gerard, the president of the ed Steelworkers Union.“他们远非市场经济,以为他们是市场经济纯属幻觉,”美国钢铁工人联合会(ed Steelworkers Union)会长利奥·W·杰拉尔德(Leo W. Gerard)说。The tensions have been palpable in steel.在钢铁行业,形势的紧张显露无遗。Celsa and other Western steel manufacturers got clobbered by the global financial crisis that started in 2008, as demand sank and prices dropped. When the industry started to recover, they faced a growing competitive threat from China.于2008年开始的全球金融危机导致钢铁需求疲软、价格猛跌,令Celsa等西方钢铁生产商遭受了重挫。就在行业开始复苏的时候,它们又面临着来自中国的日益加剧的竞争威胁。In the last three years, Chinese steel exports more than doubled to 107 million metric tons, higher than the annual raw steel production of the ed States. Prices fell steeply, although they have perked up lately on speculation of renewed demand in China.过去三年,中国钢材出口量增加了一倍以上,达1.07亿吨,超过美国一年的粗钢产量。钢价急剧下跌,尽管对中国需求复苏的预测最近带来了一波价格反弹。The result has been a shakeout in steel.其结果就是钢铁行业的重组。Celsa has not turned a profit in seven years. ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steel maker, announced an annual loss of nearly billion in February, blaming Chinese competition. Since the beginning of last year, ed States Steel has cut 5,000 jobs and warned that thousands of others are at risk.Celsa已经七年没有盈利。全球最大的钢铁生产商安赛乐米塔尔(ArcelorMittal)今年2月宣布去年亏损近80亿美元,并将其归咎于来自中国的竞争。自去年年初以来,美国钢铁公司(ed States Steel)削减了5000个岗位,并警告还有数以千计的人面临裁员危险。“Unfairly traded steel imports have reached historic levels in 2015 and 2016, taking almost 30 percent share of the domestic steel market,” Doug Matthews, a U.S. Steel executive, testified in a government hearing last month.“不公平的钢材进口在2015年和2016年达到了历史最高水平,占据了国内钢材市场近30%的份额,”美国钢铁公司的高管道格·马修斯(Doug Matthews)上个月出席一次政府听会时表示。China faces its own share of pain.中国自己也在承受煎熬。Hundreds of steel makers are limping along, overloaded with debt and battered by weak prices. The chairman of Dongbei Special Steel, a large Chinese company, hanged himself in March, days before the company began defaulting on loans.成百上千的钢铁生产商正在艰难地维持经营,沉重的债务和疲软的价格令它们举步维艰。今年3月,大型企业东北特殊钢铁集团出现贷款违约的数天前,其董事长自缢身亡。The global downturn has created a political firestorm. In February, thousands of steelworkers marched in Brussels, the headquarters of the European Union, demanding protection from Chinese products.全球经济下行引发了一场政治风暴。今年2月,数以千计的钢铁工人在欧盟总部布鲁塞尔游行,要求获得保护,免受中国产品的冲击。The issue flared up again when Tata Steel announced plans to sell or close its money-losing business in Britain, prompting calls for an emergency session of Parliament. Tata has managed to find takers for some of its plants, but about 11,000 jobs in Britain remain at risk.这个问题后来又再次爆发:塔塔钢铁公司(Tata Steel)宣布计划出售或关停在英国的亏本生意,以致有人呼吁英国议会就此召开紧急会议。塔塔的部分工厂找到了买家,但英国仍有约1.1万个工作岗位面临风险。“Effective antidumping measures have to be implemented as quickly as possible,” said Wolfgang Eder, chief executive of Voestalpine, one of Europe’s largest steel makers, warning that “many thousands more E.U. jobs are under severe threat.”“必须尽快实施有效的反倾销措施,”欧洲规模居前的钢铁生产商奥钢联集团(Voestalpine)的首席执行官沃尔夫冈·埃德(Wolfgang Eder)警告。“欧洲还有数以千计的工作岗位面临着严重威胁。”The political mess could set up a standoff over the W.T.O. rules, since they are one of the industry’s main defense mechanisms.政治上的困境可能会造成围绕WTO规则的僵局,因为这是该行业主要的防御机制之一。The Obama administration has pressed China to follow through on promises of market-oriented reforms, to help level the playing field. The administration has not taken a public position on whether to repeal proxy country procedures for China, which would require legislation.奥巴马政府一直在向中国施压,要其兑现自己有关市场化改革的承诺,帮助创造公平的竞争环境。至于是否废除针对中国的代理国程序,奥巴马政府并没有公开表态。要实现这一点,需要立法。Getting legislation through Congress is even more difficult than usual this year. Trade is a touchy subject in the presidential election. And the administration’s trade priority is to win congressional approval of the Trans-Pacific Partnership with China’s economic rivals in the region, including Japan and Vietnam.然而,今年要让国会通过立法,难度更胜以往。在此次总统竞选中,贸易是一个棘手的议题。本届政府在贸易领域的优先考虑是让国会批准《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership)。参与协定的成员国包括日本和越南等中国在地区的竞争对手。Europe, which is just starting to consider the issue, is looking at a compromise, by toughening penalties against China while still conferring market status on the country. Doing nothing “may well create new and serious frictions in our bilateral relationship with China,” Cecilia Malmstr#246;m, the European trade commissioner, said in a speech in March, adding that three million jobs in Europe depend on sales to China.欧洲则刚开始考虑这一问题,着眼于达成妥协,方式是强化针对中国的处罚,同时仍然赋予该国市场经济地位。什么也不做“很可能会在我们和中国的双边关系中制造新的严重擦,”欧盟委员会负责贸易事务的委员塞西莉亚·马尔姆斯特伦(Cecilia Malmstr#246;m)在今年3月的一次发言中说道。她还表示,欧洲有300万个工作机会依赖于向中国销售产品。The two-way relationship is what makes the trade rules so complex.正是这种双向关系使这些贸易规则变得非常复杂。If China does not prevail, some players worry about getting stuck with insufficient and high-cost goods from local factories. “We don’t want locals to go out of business, but we want it to be free and fair,” said Jeffrey Kabel, the chairman of the International Steel Trade Association, a group in London that represents the entire steel food chain, including traders, producers and users. A big worry among customers, he said, is that they “won’t have a choice for buying.”如果中国不能如愿,一些参与方可能会担心自己不得不接受当地工厂生产的数量不足且价格高昂的产品。“我们不希望本地企业破产,但我们希望能实现自由和公平贸易,”国际钢铁贸易协会(International Steel Trade Association)主席杰弗里·卡贝尔(Jeffrey Kabel)表示。这个位于伦敦的组织代表整个钢铁产业链的利益,包括贸易商、生产商和用户。他表示,消费者的一大担心是,他们“不再有权选择购买什么”。On the flip side, the Celsa production line, with its glowing metal rods, employs about 750 people. Mr. Sanz said the plant was not yet y to start layoffs, although the jobs could also not be guaranteed.另一方面,能造出锃亮钢材的Celsa生产线雇佣了大约750人。桑斯表示,这家工厂还没准备开始裁员,不过这些工作也不能确保依然存在。“We want fair competition to see who survives,” he said.“我们希望通过公平的竞争来决定谁能存活下去,”他说。 /201605/441462。

Spanish prosecutors have accused José Mourinho of defrauding the country’s tax authorities of EU3.3m, after finding that the Portuguese coach used a company in the British Virgin Islands to conceal earnings from the sale of his image rights.西班牙检察官指控若泽?穆里尼奥(José Mourinho)欺诈西班牙税务当局330万欧元,此前检察官发现这位葡萄牙籍教练利用一家英属维尔京群岛的公司隐瞒了出售其肖像权所得的收入。The accusations against Mr Mourinho, man-ager of Manchester ed, date from his time as coach at Real Madrid. Prosecutors believe the 54-year-old fail-ed to declare earnings worth more than EU7m during 2011 and 2012, on which he should have paid EU3.3m in taxes.针对身为曼联(Manchester ed)教练的穆里尼奥的指控,追溯到他在皇家马德里(Real Madrid)担任教练的时期。检察官认为,现年54岁的穆里尼奥没有申报在2011年至2012年期间总值超过700万欧元的收入,他本来应该为这些收入纳税330万欧元。According to a statement yesterday, Mr Mourinho did so “with the aim of ob-taining an illicit gain” and after setting up a deliberately “opaque” company structure to manage the earnings from his image rights.根据昨天的一份声明,穆里尼奥此举的“目的是获得非法收入”,并且通过设立故意“不透明”的公司结构来管理出售其肖像权所得。As of yesterday Mr Mourinho had not commented on the allegations.截至昨天,穆里尼奥尚未对这些指控置评。The accusations come just a week after Spanish prosecutors brought a parallel case against Cristiano Ronaldo, Real Madrid’s star striker who allegedly withheld taxes worth EU14.8m.一周前,西班牙检方对皇马明星前锋C罗(Cristiano Ronaldo)提起了类似指控,声称其涉嫌偷税1480万欧元。In both cases, tax authorities and prosecutors allege that Mr Mourinho and Mr Ronaldo ceded their image rights to companies on the Virgin Islands which in turn ceded them to a company based in Ireland. The Irish company allegedly used by the two men is identical: Multisports amp; Image Management Ltd.在两起案件中,税收当局和检方声称穆里尼奥和C罗都把自己的肖像权转让给维尔京群岛的公司,后者进而把他们的肖像权转让给一家位于爱尔兰的公司。据称二人使用的是同一家爱尔兰公司:综合体育amp;形象管理有限公司(Multisport amp; Image Management Limited,简称MIM)。Both Mr Ronaldo and Mr Mourinho are clients of Jorge Mendes, a well-known Portuguese football agent. When the allegations of tax fraud first surfaced last year, Mr Mendes’s agency issued a statement insisting that both men were “up to date with [their] tax obligations”.C罗和穆里尼奥都是著名的葡萄牙足球经纪人若热?门德斯(Jorge Mendes)的客户。当去年关于税务欺诈的指控首次出现时,门德斯所在的机构发表了一项声明,坚称二人“始终尽到了纳税义务”。Mr Mourinho is one of the most celebrated football coaches of recent times, winning the Uefa Champions League trophy with both FC Porto from Portugal and Italy’s Inter Milan. He also sec-ured league titles with Porto and Inter, as well as with Real Madrid and the English Premier League side Chelsea.穆里尼奥是近年来最著名的足球教练之一,他分别带领葡萄牙波尔图足球俱乐部(FC Porto)和意大利的国际米兰(Inter Milan)赢得了欧冠联赛(Uefa Champions League)奖杯。他还带领波尔图、国际米兰、以及皇家马德里和英超切尔西(Chelsea)赢得了各自的联赛冠军。Known for his defensive tactics and confrontational demeanour with referees and journalists, Mr Mourinho famously referred to himself as a “special one” when he took over as Chelsea coach in 2004. The moniker has followed him ever since.穆里尼奥以其防守战术以及对抗裁判和记者的行为而闻名,他曾在2004年执教切尔西时自称“特殊的一个”(special one)。从那时起他便有了这个绰号。 /201706/515027。