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2019年07月22日 12:26:51

Israeli riot police briefly clashed with Palestinian protesters at Jerusalems flashpoint Al-Aqsa mosque compound early Sunday, raising tensions ahead of a major Jewish holiday.以色列防暴警察星期天早晨在耶路撒冷的冲突热点地区阿克萨清真寺所在地和巴勒斯坦抗议者发生了短暂冲突。使得那里的局势在犹太人主要节日到来前变得紧张。Young masked Palestinians ;threw stones and fireworks at police and border police forces,; who responded with ;riot dispersal means,; police said.警方表示,带着面罩的年轻巴勒斯坦人向以色列警察和边防警察投掷石块和爆竹,以色列警方则对抗议者采取了防暴驱离措施。No injuries or arrests were reported following the altercations at the hilltop compound in Jerusalems Old City that is revered by Jews and Muslims.在耶路撒冷老城这处清真寺的山顶所在地发生这起争执冲突之后,没有受伤或者逮捕的报道。这处地点被犹太人和穆斯林都视为敬仰的圣地。After the clashes on what was the last day of the Muslim Eid al-Adha holiday, Palestinian protesters prepared ;to defend; the mosque during the eight-day Jewish Sukkot festival, stocking stones inside the shrine and planning to sleep in it.这起发生在穆斯林古尔邦节最后一天的冲突之后,抗议者准备在犹太人历时八天的住棚节期间,保卫这座清真寺。他们在清真寺内囤积石块,并计划睡在清真寺里。Sukkot, which started at sunset, is expected to lead to an increase in Jewish visitors to the Al-Aqsa compound, known to Jews as the Temple Mount. Muslims call it the Noble Sanctuary and revere it as their third holiest site, after Mecca and Medina in Saudi Arabia.日落时开始的住棚节,预计将使得阿克萨清真寺所在地的犹太人访客增加,犹太人称那里是圣殿山。那里是穆斯林心目中仅次于沙特麦加和麦地那之后的第三圣地。Under current rules, Jews can visit the site, but not pray there for fear it would create friction with Muslim worshippers.按照目前的规定,犹太人可以造访这处圣地,但是出于担心会与穆斯林敬拜者发生擦,犹太人不能在那里祷告。来 /201509/401128嘉兴医疗美容整形医院嘉兴曙光去胎记多少钱In a thinly veiled admonishment, the White House recently accused the UK our closest ally of “a policy of constant accommodationtowards China. The parallel drawn to the historical appeasement of Germany by an apprehensive Europe was lost on no one, nor indeed the overwrought nature of the underlying concern.最近,白宫(White House)向其最亲密的盟友英国发出了一个几乎不加掩饰的告诫,指责其对中国奉行“不断迁就的政策”。这显然是想让人联想起历史上惶惶不安的欧洲对德国采取的绥靖政策,与此同时,所有人也都明白,美国这块“心病”其实是由过度紧张造成的。The proximate cause of this spleen-venting was the surprise breaking of ranks by the UK to join as a founding shareholder the nascent China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB.) This initial bn fund has as itsagenda the financing of overdue infrastructure in Asia.美国如此大发脾气,直接原因是英国与美国分道扬镳、决定以创始股东身份加入由中国主导的新生的亚洲基础设施投资(AIIB,简称:亚投行),这让美国颇感意外。亚投行初始资本00亿美元,目标是为亚洲早该建设的基础设施提供融资。It is of a piece too with the recent proposal by China to form a Brics bank focused on itspartners in Brazil India, Russia and South Africa. There is also then the ambitious “New Silk Roadproject, which aims to generate greater connectivity between Asia and beyond by land and by sea. All of this stands against the backdrop of a US-led effort to hammer out a Trans Pacific Partnership with the very same partners in Asia, conspicuously excluding China.这与中国近期提出的建立“金砖Brics bank)的计划非常相像。金砖的注意力将主要放在中国的合作伙伴巴西、印度、俄罗斯和南非身上。另外还有雄心勃勃的“新丝绸之路New Silk Road)计划,目标是通过陆路和海路加强中国与亚洲乃至更遥远地区的连通性。这些都与美国目前牵头展开的一项努力针锋相对:美国正努力与中国上述计划所涉及的那些亚洲合作伙伴敲定《跨太平洋伙伴关系TPP)协定,引人注目的一点是,该协定将中国排除在外。The UK has since been followed by very nearly the rest of our allies save Japan in signing up with the more than 30 countries that have aly chosen to join. We are increasingly alone in our worry that a China dominated enterprise may not follow international standards of creditworthiness, transparency, and environmental sensitivity that the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and Asian Development Bank adhere to.美国的所有盟友(日本除外)后来几乎都在效仿英国的做法,与30多个已决定加入亚投行的国家签署入行协议。美国担心,一个由中国主导的组织或许不会像世界(World Bank)、国际货币基金组IMF)和亚洲开发银ADB)那样遵守有关信誉、透明度和环保敏感性的国际标准,但持同样担心的国家现在越来越少。While US officials are not directly discouraging other nations from joining the bank, the opposition is consistent with the impression in Asia that our efforts are aimed at bolstering our martial superiority with a soft economic superiority that seeks to displace China from the aly pivotal role it has in the furthering of Asian economies.尽管美国官员没有直接劝说其他国家不要加入亚投行,但是这种抵制的态度符合美国给亚洲留下的印象:美国想以软性的经济优势来巩固自身的军事优势,而这种经济优势意味着不让中国在促进亚洲经济发展方面继续扮演其已在扮演的关键角色。It does not help the White House that Congress has stalled proposed reforms to the IMF, which would double the fund’s resources and give more voting power to the BRICS, most notably China. In short, whether it is White House or Congressional policy or both, US impediments to IMF reforms have accelerated China’s opportunity to lead in the region.美国国会阻挠拟议中的IMF改革,也就是将IMF的资本增加一倍并给予金砖国家、尤其是中国更多投票权。这种做法对白宫并无助益。简而言之,不管这是白宫的政策,还是美国国会的政策,还是二者共同的政策,美国阻挠IMF改革的做法都加大了中国在亚洲担当领导者的机会。We are unable also to bolster a viable regional alternative to the AIIB. The most likely candidate, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), is chronically underfunded and unable to serve as the lead organizing force for a much overdue Asian investment resurgence. The US has not met its funding commitments to either the IMF or ADB, in spite of the ADB’s own estimates that Asia needs at least tn in infrastructure investment.美国也无法找到一个能在该地区有效替代亚投行的实体并予以持。最有可能的候选者是亚开行,但长期资金不足的亚开行无法担当主要的组织者、促成早该出现的亚洲投资复兴。无论是对亚开行还是对IMF,美国都没有兑现其出资承诺,尽管亚开行自身的估计数字显示亚洲至少需万亿美元基础设施投资。Significant projects such as Asian rail links, hydroelectric power and logistical links all require deep pocketed and patient sponsors that the West’s riven political structures simply cannot provide the consensus for anymore. The equivalent of the New Deal for Asia mirroring the commitment and policy cohesion under which the US stitched together a continent with roads, while raising a generation out of poverty is simply not imaginable today with the backing of the World Bank, IMF or the ADB. It is inevitable then that as resurgent Asian economies welcome abundant and flexible Chinese investment, the US appears weaker by being unable to mobilise the West to offer a compelling alternative.亚洲的铁路网、水力发电和物流网等重大项目,都需要财力雄厚又有耐心的投资者,而西方四分五裂的政治结构根本无法再为此达成共识。今天,要想在亚洲复制当年美国的“新政New Deal),即像美国那样靠承诺和政策凝聚力把整块大陆用道路连通起来、同时让一代人脱离贫困,靠世行、IMF或亚开行的持是根本不可想象的。因此,随着复兴中的亚洲经济体对充裕而灵活的中国投资表示欢迎、而美国又无法动员西方提供一个令人难以抗拒的替代选择,美国显现出颓势就是不可避免的。Far away from the teeming capitals of Asia, many in the US are unaware also of how radically different the world view is of the western dominated global development bodies. The tough love austerity recipes that the IMF and World Bank routinely impose on Asian countries in exchange for aid or sponsorship are increasingly seen as severe and slavishly theoretical. We run the risk of appearing hypocritical when we in the West bail out our own banks and major industries in carefully and centrally planned moves, while insisting upon letting transparent and unfettered market forces determine the fate of Asian institutions when they run aground.另外,由于与亚洲各国人口众多的首都相距甚远,美国的很多人不了解世界对西方主导的全球开发机构有着多么截然不同的看法。IMF和世行经常会向亚洲国家开出代表“严爱”的紧缩处方、以此作为向它们提供援助和资助的条件,人们越来越认为这种做法既苛刻又教条。当西方人一面以小心翼翼和中央计划的举措纾困自己的和主要产业、一面却坚决要求让透明和不受约束的市场力量决定陷入困境的亚洲机构的命运时,就会在别人眼中可能会成为“虚伪”的代名词。We fail also to properly evaluate how essential China’s investment is to our own domestic economy. In a still fragile housing market Chinese investment into US residential property amounts to nearly bn with most of it in stable hard cash, impervious to market jitters. Consider also the overall very welcome foreign direct investment from China which in California alone tallies up at an astonishing bn, far outpacing any other source and certainly eclipsing locally led investments. Further, Chinese investment into California alone has a potential to reach an astonishing bn by 2020 if the state and the private sector maximise the partnership.至于中国投资对美国国内经济有多么重要,美国也没能做出正确评估。在美国房地产市场依旧脆弱之际,中国对美住宅地产投资已逼近220亿美元,其中大多数投资是以不受市场波动影响的、可靠的现款来完成的。再考虑下整体上很受欢迎的来自中国的外商直接投资(FDI),仅在加利福尼亚一个州就达到令人吃惊的120亿美元,远远超过来自任何其他国家的投资,当然也让来自美国国内的投资黯然失色。此外,如果加州公共及私营部门能最大限度地发展利用这种合作关系,那么到2020年时,中国仅对加州一个州的投资就有望达到令人乍舌00亿美元。It is clear then that the economic fallout would be severe if Chinese investors pulled back from new investment in California, New York, Texas, Illinois, or Washington, to name just the most popular destinations of Chinese investment. As an American and the CEO of an Asian bank based in the US, it is clear to this observer that the repercussions would affect us greatly.因此,如果中国投资者撤回新近在加州、纽约州、德克萨斯州、伊利诺伊州或华盛顿州(这里仅举几个最热门的中国投资目的地)的投资,显然会造成严重的经济后果。我既是一名美国人又是一家亚洲美国区的首席执行官,在我这样的专业人士看来,这些后果无疑会严重影响到我们。As China approaches the status of the world’s largest economy, it has become an integral part of the global financial system. It is both bad policy and an ahistorical view that any strengthening of China regionally is necessarily damaging to US interests in Asia. The US would be better served if we did not continue to treat China as a junior partner in its own backyard, and form a diplomatic partnership instead that recognises China’s importance to the development of Asia and as an intermediary funneling domestic surpluses into high value investments around the globe.随着中国逐渐登上世界最大经济体的宝座,它已成为全球金融体系不可或缺的一部分。有人认为中国的地区影响力增强必然会损害美国在亚洲的利益,这是一种有悖历史潮流的观点,会催生糟糕的政策。假若美国不再把中国视为其所在地区内的次要合作伙伴,而是与其建立一种新型外交合作关系,承认其对亚洲发展的重要性、以及其作为把国内过剩资本导向世界各地高价值投资之中介的重要性,会更符合美国的利益。It is true that we started this century believing that we would enjoy center stage in a permanently uni-polar world, but that is just not the case anymore. China differs from previous rivals we have historically faced in one crucial way in that itsstrategic goals are driven largely by economics and a desire to maintain internal social and economic stability.没错,本世纪开始时我们曾认为自己会在这个永久的单极世界里出尽风头,但现在这种想法已不再成立。在一个至关重要的方面,中国与美国过去遭遇的对手并不相同:中国的战略目标主要受经济状况以及维持国内社会和经济稳定的愿望驱动。There is little apparent desire or motive to subjugate the globe as they are not in their current form driven by an ideological imperative of lethal opposition to the US or democratic nations in general, as we were used to from our old foe the Soviet Union. Hence, holding on to the narrative of the Cold War will lead only to wasted treasure and a stalemate neither we nor the rest of the world can afford.中国没有什么明显的欲望或动机去征世界,因为其目前所处的阶段并不受极力反对美国或整个民主世界(过去,我们的老冤家苏联曾这样对待我们)这种意识形态使命的驱动。因此,死抱着冷战思维不放,只会造成财富浪费以及无论美国还是世界其余国家都承受不起的对峙。With more than seven per cent of our national debt the most of any nation and the world’s largest stockpile of greenbacks outside of the US, China realises the almost umbilical stake they have in the continuous health of the US. While the US certainly does not treat China as gravely as we once did the Soviet Union, the rhetoric is heating up and has the potential to escalate if not handled with care.中国持有%的美国国债,是我们最大的债权国,同时也是世界上除美国外美元储备最多的国家。中国明白自己的利益与美国的长久健康息息相关。美国现在当然没有像过去对待苏联那样冷酷地对待中国,但冷战叙事正在升温,若不小心应对,这种叙事可能会升级。Noor Menai is President amp; CEO of CT Bank USA and former CEO of Charles Schwab Bank本文作者是中国信托商业美国(CT Bank USA)总裁兼首席执行官,曾任嘉信银Charles Schwab Bank)首席执行官来 /201504/367547Seen in historical perspective, Russia’s latest turn to the east is not new. “From the shores of the Pacific and the heights of the Himalayas, Russia will dominate not only the affairs of Asia but those of Europe as well.The Russian statesman who wrote those words was not Vladimir Putin, as some might suspect, but Count Sergey Witte, Alexander III’s finance minister, in a memo to his monarch in 1893. Witte, the architect of Russia’s industrial revolution, launched the trans-Siberian Railroad, aimed at opening up the resources of the eastern two-thirds of Russia and giving Moscow the means to establish its presence as a great power in the Pacific.以历史的眼光来看,俄罗斯最近“战略重心向东方转移”并不新鲜。“从太平洋之滨到喜马拉雅山之巅,俄罗斯不仅将主导亚洲的事务,还将主导欧洲的事务。”这句话并非如一些人或许在怀疑的那样、出自弗拉基米尔#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)之口,而是出自沙皇亚历山大三世(Alexander III)的财政大臣谢尔盖#8226;维特伯爵(Count Sergey Witte)893年,他在给君主的奏折上写下了这句话。维特是俄罗斯工业化革命的设计师,曾推动修建西伯利亚大铁Trans-Siberian Railway),以求开发俄罗斯东部三分之二国土蕴含的资源,并且让莫斯科能够确立俄罗斯作为太平洋大国的存在。In fact, the Russians have been “turning toward Asiaever since they first crossed the Urals in the late 16th century; and successive rulers tsars and commissars alike have kept going. It is no accident that the name of the port city of Vladivostok, home to Russia’s Pacific Fleet, means in Russian, “Rule the East事实上,自从16世纪末第一次翻越乌拉尔山起,俄罗斯就一直在将战略重心“向亚洲转移”,历代统治者——无论是沙皇还是苏联领导人——都在沿着这条道路前进。俄罗斯太平洋舰Pacific Fleet)基地所在的港口城市符拉迪沃斯托克(即海参崴——译者注),在俄语中的意思是“统治东方”,这并非巧合。Yet for the Kremlin today, the turn to the east has a special urgency. The break-up of the Soviet Union was a blow to the Russian economy as a whole, but for East Siberia and the Russian Far East it was a disaster. Jobs disappeared as military industry, the mainstay of the region, shut down. In Vladivostok, the fleet rusted at anchor. Today the regions are depressed and increasingly depopulated. Along a coastline equal in length to the entire North American seaboard from Florida to Quebec, Russia’s Pacific Coast has fewer than 5m inhabitants. China, to the south, has 1.3bn. From Moscow’s perspective, it is no longer a question of “dominating the affairs of Asia but of keeping Russia intact.然而,对今日的克里姆林宫而言,战略重心向东方转移具有特殊的紧迫性。当年苏联解体,对整个俄罗斯经济造成了巨大冲击,但对西伯利亚东部和俄罗斯远东地区,这一事件堪称一场灾难。撑这一地区经济的军工企业一家家关停,就业岗位随之消失。在符拉迪沃斯托克,人们听任停泊在港口的军舰锈烂。如今,这一地区经济萧条,人口越来越少。俄罗斯的太平洋海岸线在长度上等于从佛罗里达到魁北克的整个北美海岸,却只有不00万居民。俄罗斯以南的中国有13亿人口。从俄罗斯政府的角度来看,问题已不再是它能否“主导亚洲的事务”,而是能否保持俄罗斯本身的完整。Since Mr Putin’s return to the presidency in 2012, his focus on Russia’s east has steadily intensified. The recently concluded gas agreements signed this year with China, after nearly 20 years of inconclusive negotiations, are the centrepiece of his eastern policy. When the first of these, the “Power of Siberiapipeline to eastern China, reaches capacity it will ship a volume equal to nearly one-quarter of Russia’s 2013 gas exports to Europe. If and when the second pipeline the “Altayroute to western China is built, the total could eventually exceed 40 per cent.自普012年重掌总统大权以来,他对俄罗斯东部的关注稳步增强。经过近20年毫无结果的谈判,俄罗斯终于在今年与中国签署了几项天然气协议,这是普京“东方政策”的最亮眼成果。第一条天然气输气管道,即通往中国东部的“西伯利亚力量”管道(东线),最终的年输气量将接近俄罗斯2013年对欧洲天然气出口的四分之一。如果第二条管道,即通往中国西部的阿勒泰管道(西线)建成,两条管道的年度总输气量将超过俄罗斯2013年对欧洲总输气量0%。But heading east is not the same as getting there. There are considerable obstacles. Gasfields and pipelines are enormous, expensive structures, with lead times measured in decades. Historically, Russia’s entire gas industry has been concentrated in the western third of the country. Shifting its centre of gravity eastward requires developing a whole new industry from scratch, and it will not happen quickly. Even on the most ambitious timetable, the Power of Siberia line will not reach its full capacity of 38bn cubic metres a year until the mid-2030s.然而,将战略重心向东方转移是一回事,能否转移成功则是另一回事。俄罗斯面临一些重大障碍。开发天然气田和建设输气管道都是浩大的工程,需要巨大的投入和长达数十年的工期。传统上,俄罗斯整个天然气工业的重心都在西部三分之一国土上。将重心东移,需要从零开始、在东部创建一套全新的工业体系,这不可能一蹴而就。即便按照最雄心勃勃的估算,“西伯利亚力量”管线最早也要到本世0年代中期才能达到每年380亿立方米的设计输气能力。Hence there is a powerful logic to the second Russian-Chinese gas agreement, signed two weeks ago, adding the Altay route, which ths the narrow gap between Mongolia and Kazakhstan, and links up with the western end of China’s west-east pipeline.因此,第二份俄中天然气协议顺理成章地诞生了。这份协议于11月初签署,拟在西面再建一条阿勒泰管道,这条管道将沿着俄罗斯夹在蒙古和哈萨克斯坦之间的那块狭长国土通往中国,接入中国西气东输管道的西头。This route has definite advantages from the Russian point of view: it draws from the country’s nearly limitless reserves in west Siberia; it branches off from an existing pipeline system; it enables the Russians to swing between the European and Chinese markets. It also helps offset the possibility of a more constricted market for gas in Europe.从俄罗斯的角度来看,西线当然更有优势:它利用的是西伯利亚西部几乎用之不竭的天然气资源,它是现有天然气管道系统的一个分,它让俄罗斯能够随时在欧洲和中国市场之间取舍。它还有助于对冲欧洲天然气市场受限的可能性。All this will require a great deal of money by some estimates up to bn for the eastern route alone. Now western sanctions have added one more obstacle. Although Gazprom, the Kremlin-controlled energy group, is not directly subject to the US and European measures announced to date, the sanctionsindirect impact on Russia’s ability to borrow has been unexpectedly severe. To carry out the Power of Siberia project, Gazprom will have to go to international markets for financing, and the prospects are uncertain.这些工程需要大量资金,有人估计,仅东线需要的资金最多就可达550亿美元。眼下西方对俄罗斯的制裁又增加了一个障碍。尽管美国和欧洲迄今宣布的制裁措施并没有直接针对俄罗斯政府控制的俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom),但制裁对俄罗斯借款能力的间接影响迄今严重得出人意料。要推进“西伯利亚力量”项目,俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司必须到国际市场上去融资,而这方面的前景是不确定的。Witte had a similar problem. His trans-Siberian Railway took more than 15 years to build, cost scores of lives and ran more than twice over budget. To finance it, he had to float big foreign loans at high interest rates.维特当年也曾面临类似的问题。他推动建设的西伯利亚大铁路花了15年多才建成,几十人在铁路建设过程中失去了生命,工程出超出预算两倍多。为筹集建设铁路资金,他不得不向海外发行高息债券。Thus Russia’s 21st-century pivot to Asia represents, both metaphorically and physically, the latest stage in Russia’s long turn to the east. But, as in the past, it will unfold at a decadal rate. For all of Mr Putin’s desire to align Russia more explicitly with China against the US “hegemon Russia for the foreseeable future will remain anchored in the west and turned toward Europe in its gas trade, much of its industry and most of its population. Russia will not escape its engagement with Europe.因此,俄罗斯1世纪的这次战略重心向亚洲转移,无论在比喻意义上还是在现实意义上,都是俄罗斯转向东方的长期过程的最新阶段。然而,如过去的情形一样,其推进速度将以十年计算。尽管普京渴望让俄罗斯更为公然地与中国结盟、对抗美国“霸权”,但在可预见的未来,俄罗斯仍将被固定在西方、以欧洲为重心,其天然气贸易将以对欧洲出口为主、主要工业布局和绝大部分人口也在西部。俄罗斯无法逃脱其欧洲宿呀?来 /201412/345453嘉兴隆胸的费用


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