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来源:天涯在线    发布时间:2018年09月21日 22:41:40    编辑:admin         

The universe has exploded with apps. There are over 1 million available for Apple AAPL 0.37% products and for Android devices: recipe apps, fitness apps, productivity apps, shopping apps. Many claim they will streamline your life and save that most precious commodity: time.这是一个各类移动应用井喷的世界。面向苹果和安卓(Android)设备的应用已经达到100多万个,包括食谱、健身、办公和购物等各个门类。许多应用声称可以让你的生活变得更简单,并且可以节省你人生最宝贵的财富——时间。But will they? Can they?但它们是否真的能做到这一点?“So many people are over-busy and overwhelmed. We’re looking for things outside of ourselves to ease our burden,” says Ali Davies, a Vancouver-based personal effectiveness coach who works with clients on time management issues. She almost never recommends a productivity app to a client. In fact, she often recommends the opposite, for several reasons.居住在温哥华的个人效率顾问埃莉o戴维斯指出:“很多人过于忙碌,不堪重负。我们都在寻找一些自身之外的东西来减轻自己的负担。”戴维斯专门向客户提供时间管理辅导,但她从来不向客户推荐任何一款效率应用,甚至经常建议他们不要使用这些应用。理由如下:First, because there are so many of them, many apps focus on something very specific. “There are no barriers to entry,” says Bob O’Donnell, who studies the technology marketplace as founder and chief analyst of TECHnalysis Research. To make a viable product in a crowded eco-system, a developer “wants to have something unique, that sticks out, that focuses on a very specific issue.”首先,市面上的效率应用数量太多,很多应用关注的是非常细分的领域。TECHnalysis Research公司创始人兼首席分析师鲍伯o奥唐奈尔表示:“这个行业没有进入门槛。”为了在已经十分拥挤的应用生态系统中打造一个能够立足的产品,开发者们“往往想要开发一个独特且醒目的东西,所以它往往会关注一个特定问题。”Since these niches are, well, small, problems that even popular apps attempt to solve may not be huge issues that devour people’s time. For instance, if you’re in a hotel in a new city, it’s nice to know there’s a good pizza place nearby. But your hotel concierge can tell you that too. A waiter can tell you what entrees other diners have enjoyed. It may be marginally more efficient to look at a shared grocery list compared with calling your spouse to ask if she needs anything, but in most people’s lives, saving two minutes doesn’t help much. You’ll spend those additional two minutes in your inbox. You could spend your life in your inbox. How much more pleasant to call your spouse instead?鉴于这些细分市场非常小众,哪怕是一些非常流行的应用所试图解决的问题,也未必能够消耗普通人大量时间。比如,如果你在一个新城市住酒店,能知道附近哪儿有一家好吃的匹萨店,固然是挺不错的;但酒店的迎宾同样也能告诉你。在手机上看一份共享的购物清单,可能确实比打电话给老婆问她需要买什么东西方便一点点,但在大多数人的生活中,节约两分钟的意义并不大。何况你节省下来的这两分钟还要花在查看收件箱上。你甚至可能把你的人生都浪费在收件箱上。给你老婆打个电话难道不是更加愉悦的体验吗?To be sure, plenty of people do swear by their apps. If you’re in an unfamiliar city, Google Maps is helpful; the hotel concierge can give you directions but isn’t going to tag along in your car. Banking apps that let you take pictures of checks to deposit them save a drive to the branch. If you’re in a store and want to purchase an item, an app that generates coupons can save you money. In the long run, that amounts to saving time as well.不可否认,很多人的确很依赖移动应用。如果你到了一个陌生的城市,谷歌地图(Google Maps)会很有用。酒店的迎宾会告诉你大致方向,但没法坐在你的车里给你导航。通过应用,你只需要给你的票照张相就可以存钱,而不用开车到网点办理。如果你在一家商店里想购买一款商品,一个能派发优惠券的应用能让你省些钱。从长期来看,这也相当于节省了时间。While many app-makers aim for niches, others have realized that being all-inclusive is likely more helpful. Journl, a productivity app that originated in the UK, combines list making, calendars, notes, etc., with the goal of getting people out of hybrid systems: a calendar one place, random post-it notes on a desk, lists in a separate app, and so forth. “We’re replacing all that chaos with a bit of clarity and calm,” says Lina Hansson, Journl’s chief marketing officer.虽然很多应用开发者瞄准的都是小众市场,但也有些开发者意识到,做一个包罗万象的应用对人的帮助更大。比如Journl是一款来自英国的效率应用,它综合了清单、日历、笔记等功能,旨在让人们摆脱混杂的系统:日历在一个地方,便签摆放在桌子上,清单在另一个应用中。Journl公司营销总监里娜o汉森表示:“我们用一点清晰和条理取代了这种混乱。”This goal of minimizing the total number of apps you use is important for saving time, because even if any one app has benefit, volume produces a cost in clutter and complication. “There are so many of them, how can you possibly keep track of them?” O’Donnell asks. Setting up an app takes time, as does adjusting your life to the app’s process. “If you find one that works for your style, great,” he says, “but that’s tough.”这种通过减少应用总数来节省时间的方法其实是很重要的。因为即便某个应用的确具有某种好处,很多复杂的应用混杂在一起,也会产生一个时间成本。奥唐奈尔指出:“这么多的应用,你怎么可能做到一切尽在掌握呢?”安装一款应用需要时间,让你的生活适应这些应用也需要时间。“如果你发现这种情况符合你的实际情况,那当然好,但那很难。”Some people’s styles aren’t technical, which means an app will never be intuitive. “My wife swears by her paper list,” O’Donnell says. I asked which app this “PaperList” was, and he said, “No, I mean putting things on a piece of paper.” People get a smartphone and think “therefore I must have apps, therefore I must use them for everything,” but that’s not true. About 22% of people who download and use any given app once never use it again. Only about half of downloaders will use an app more than four times.并非所有人都精通技术,这意味着移动应用永远和“直观”扯不上边。奥唐奈尔表示:“我的妻子还是依赖纸质清单。”我问他“纸质清单”是个什么应用,他回答道:“不是什么应用,就是把事情记录在一张纸上。”人们买了智能手机后,往往会觉得:“既然用了智能手机,我就得下载应用,就得把它用在任何事情上。”其实并非如此。大概有22%的人下载了某一款应用后,就永远不会再打开它。只有大约一半的人会使用一款应用4次以上。Finally here’s the biggest issue with using apps to save time: we are easily distracted. “It’s not always the app itself,” Davies says. “It’s the behavior it triggers.” You go into your to-do list app with the best intentions of crossing something off. But with device in hand, you check email and get sucked into a crisis that doesn’t concern you. Or you pop over to Pinterest and spend the next 45 minutes looking at Halloween costumes. Whatever time saved is dwarfed by that loss.最后,使用旨在节省时间的应用还有个最大的问题:我们很容易分心。戴维斯表示:“这并不全是应用本身的问题,而是它触发的行为所导致的。”你下载一款任务管理应用,本来是想把上面的项目一项项勾掉。但是一旦手里拿着手机,你就开始查看电子邮件,上Pinterest看照片,或是花45分钟看万圣节装。不管节省了多少时间,都弥补不了这样的损失。Davies recommends two strategies to her clients. First, “just log where all your time is going.” You might discover that the 20 minutes you spend comparing your stats to a friend’s on a fitness app could have been used to actually exercise.戴维斯向她的客户推荐了两个策略。首先,“记录你的时间都去哪儿了”。你可能会发现,你在健身应用上比较你和你朋友的成绩花掉的那20分钟,还不如花在真正锻炼上。Second, you might try deleting everything that’s not essential. Then see what you choose to add back. Davies did this with everything but a map app. Clients who’ve made a similar choice “have reported the significant amounts of free time they have,” she says. When your phone is less interesting, you look at it less. And, overall, that can make you feel like you have all the time in the world.其次,你可以试着删除一些不重要的东西,然后看看你最需要把什么添加回来。戴维斯几乎删掉了所有应用,只重新添加了一款地图应用。有些客户也做了同样的选择,他们表示“获得了相当多的空间时间”。当你的手机变得不那么有意思了,你花在手机上的时间也就少了。如此一来,你就会觉得,你可以把所有时间花在这个真实的世界上。 /201411/341209。

Apple device owners are slower to download iOS 8, the latest mobile software update, than previous updates, indicating that they may be scared off by a buggy and embarrassing launch.苹果(Apple)设备用户下载最新移动操作系统iOS 8的速度正在放缓,明显不敌前几个版本,这显示出对于新系统首发时出现的程序漏洞,用户似乎仍然心有余悸。On Tuesday, the tech giant revealed new data on its developer support web site indicating that 47% of all Apple mobile devices currently run iOS 8, which was released on Sept. 17 to much fanfare. That’s compared with iOS 7, which was downloaded by 70% of user during the same two and a half week period last year according to the data analytics service Mixpanel.周二,科技巨头苹果公司在其开发者网站上发布了一组最新数据。数据显示,自iOS 8操作系统于9月17日高调发布以来,所有的苹果移动设备中仅有47%已在运行新版系统。这与去年iOS 7发布时的盛况形成了鲜明对比——根据数据分析务商Mixpanel的统计,同样是在发布后两周半的时间里内,iOS 7的用户下载率达到了70%。The likely reason behind slower adoption of Apple’s latest mobile software has to do with iOS 8 itself. A small, incremental software update to iOS 8, dubbed iOS 8.0.1, quickly made headlines after many users complained that it disabled cell and data service, as well as Apple’s fingerprint-recognition technology, Touch ID. Apple quickly pulled the update from its app store, fixed the bug and made it publicly available a day-and-a-half later.用户对苹果最新移动操作系统反应谨慎,原因很可能出在iOS 8的漏洞重重上。在名为iOS 8.0.1的小幅更新版本推出后,很多用户反映,更新后通话和网络功能受到影响,苹果的指纹识别技术Touch ID也无法使用,这使得iOS 8.0.1一下子处于风口浪尖。苹果对此迅速作出反应,立刻从应用商店下架了新版系统,并修复了漏洞,在一天半之后发布了修订版供用户下载。The problems with the update marked a major stumble for Apple, which had hoped to showcase the new operating system while selling the latest versions of its smartphone, the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus. Instead, it turned into a public relations nightmare.新版系统的问题对苹果而言无疑是一次沉重的打击,该公司本欲借新款智能手机iPhone 6 和 iPhone 6 Plus发布之际,向用户隆重推出这款新的操作系统,没想到最后却演变成了一场公关危机。It’s clear a significant number of iOS users remain wary about suffering the same kind of glitches that some early adopters did. Case in point: Less than a week after its release, Apple reported that iOS 8 was running on 46% of all iPhones, iPads and iPods. But as of this week, that figure saw a mere 1% uptick.显然,早期升级用户所遇到的问题让相当一部分的iOS用户顾虑重重,不敢贸然更新从苹果提供的数据中不难看出这一点:新版系统发布后不到一周,苹果就曾宣称,所有的iPhone、iPad和 iPod设备中,运行iOS 8系统的用户比例占到46%。但是截至本周,这一数字仅增加了1%。 /201410/334022。

For years, many tech workers in Silicon Valley have enjoyed free meals — one of several cushy perks offered the likes of Google, Facebook, and countless startups. But complimentary grub could become a thing of the past if the Internal Revenue Service has its way.多年来,许多硅谷科技公司的员工一直享用免费员工餐。这是谷歌(Google)、Facebook和无数初创公司为员工提供的福利之一。然而如果美国国税局(Internal Revenue Service)落实了收税意向,这些免费食品就将成为过去了。A report on Tuesday by the Wall Street Journal revealed the IRS is pushing to tax employees for their free meals. Companies would have to add in the value of free food when calculating employee tax withholding.《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal )本周二报道称,美国国税局正准备就免费员工餐向员工征税。在计算员工的预扣税款时,公司必须加入免费食物的价值。News of a potential tax on free meals has many worried in Silicon Valley, where all-you-can eat buffets are a basic recruiting tool. They’re also a subtle way to get employees to work longer hours by giving them no reason for them to leave the office except to sleep.这一消息让硅谷许多公司感到担忧,因为“管饱吃”的员工自助餐是他们招聘时开出的基本条件之一。提供员工餐也是一种巧妙的手段,让员工除了睡觉以外没有理由离开办公室,从而工作更长时间。“Having food available or catered in is kind of expected of most tech firms, so this is a bit of a concern,” admits Steve Sarner, VP of Marketing, at the social networking site Tagged, where employees get at least one free meal a week cooked up by nearby restaurants in San Francisco’s Financial District.社交网站Tagged公司营销副总裁史蒂夫o萨尔纳承认:“提供食物是人们对大多数科技公司的正常预期,因此征税问题引发了一些关注。”在这家公司,员工每周至少会享用一次由旧金山金融区附近的餐厅烹制的免费餐。Nathan Grady, a front-end engineer at Weebly, a service that lets users build web sites with custom software tools, called the idea of taxing free food awkward. The practice is a social catalyst that makes it easy for a company’s staff to talk to one another, he said. Weebly makes that easy enough by serving free catered lunch daily.Weebly是一家让用户利用定制软件工具创建网站的务提供商,该公司的前端工程师南森o格雷迪认为,对免费员工餐征税的想法“令人尴尬”。他表示,提供员工餐可以促进社交,公司员工在用餐时可以轻松地交谈。Weebly每天都提供免费午餐,从而创造这种交流的机会。“You start doing that, well then, do you start taxing free coffee as well?” Grady said. “It just doesn’t make sense.”格雷迪表示:“最开始是向免费员工餐征税,然后呢,是不是还要向免费咖啡征税?这根本没有道理。”Google, which popularized the free Silicon Valley buffet, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Facebook, which followed in Google’s footsteps by offering its employees free food, declined to comment.引领硅谷免费自助餐潮流的谷歌公司并未立刻发表对此事的看法。在提供免费食物方面追随谷歌脚步的Facebook也拒绝发表。The idea of a food tax rankles Matt MacInnis, CEO of the digital publishing startup Inkling. His company has served its employees free lunches for nearly four years via the catering business Ryan Scott 2 Go. ZeroCater, another caterer, was hired last year to serve dinner. MacInnis argued that free meals in the tech industry are a lot like standard benefits such as employers matching 401k contributions by their workers.Inkling数字出版公司首席执行官马特o麦金尼斯对征收食物税的想法非常不满。他的公司通过餐饮公司Ryan Scott 2 Go,已经向员工提供了近4年的免费午餐。去年,公司还聘请另一家餐饮公司ZeroCater提供晚餐。麦金尼斯认为,科技业提供免费员工餐就像是雇主给员工提供401K企业养老保险一样,属于常规福利。Companies like Google GOOG 1.00% , Facebook FB 2.49% , and Apple AAPL 0.78% can easily afford to pay employees more to cover any additional taxes for free meals, he said. Therefore, their recruiting wouldn’t suffer. But start-ups, which feel compelled to offer free laundry, yoga classes, and free food to compete for top talent, would be put at a big disadvantage, he said. In Inkling’s case, MacInnis says he would need to increase employee’s annual salaries by more than ,000 to cover any extra food taxes.像谷歌、Facebook和苹果(Apple)这样的公司可以轻松地给员工加薪,抵消免费员工餐导致的额外税费。但初创公司通常都不得不提供免费洗衣、瑜伽课程和免费食物,以此争取顶级人才,这个政策会让它们处于极为不利的情况。麦金尼斯表示,在Inkling公司,他需要将员工的年薪提高5,000美元以上,才能抵消额外食物税对员工收入的影响。“It seems there would be pretty terrible, unintended consequences,” MacInnis said.麦金尼斯说:“看起来这将导致出人意料的可怕后果。” /201409/326811。

Baidu isn#39;t quite China#39;s Google. 百度(Baidu)还不能说是中国的谷歌(Google)。 China#39;s Internet giant has managed to replicate Google#39;s dominance of Internet search, with 85% of the market by traffic in the first quarter, according to web analysis firm iResearch. But with rivals vying for control of the gateway to search in web browsers and smartphones, that dominance can#39;t be taken for granted. 这家中国互联网巨头复制了谷歌在互联网搜索市场的主导地位。据网络分析公司艾瑞咨询(iResearch)的数据,按流量计算,一季度百度在搜索市场占有85%的份额。不过,在竞争对手们纷纷争夺网络浏览器和智能手机搜索通路的控制权的情况下,百度的主导地位并非高枕无忧。 The clear and present danger comes from online upstart Qihoo 360 Technology QIHU +4.33% . Earlier this month, Qihoo launched its own search function and made it the default option on its popular browser. The most obvious loser is Google, which until now was Qihoo#39;s default search provider. But Baidu also stands to lose market share. 一个显而易见也是迫在眉睫的危险来自网络后起之秀奇虎360科技有限公司(Qihoo 360 Technology)。上个月,奇虎360推出了自己的搜索务,并将之设置为其颇受欢迎的浏览器上的默认搜索选项。在奇虎360的这番举动中,最明显的输家是谷歌,在此之前,谷歌一直是奇虎360的默认搜索引擎。不过,百度也可能失去部分市场份额。 With more than a decade of experience in search, Baidu has quality on its side. In 2011, it outspent Qihoo on research and development by more than three to one. It#39;s difficult to believe that the new kid on the block will be able to compete on performance. 百度在互联网搜索领域拥有10余年的经验,质量是它的优势。2011年,百度的研发出比奇虎360高出两倍有余。很难相信搜索领域的“毛头小子”能够在搜索性能上与百度相抗衡。 But with more than 20% of China#39;s browser market, Qihoo has a powerful distribution network. That doesn#39;t guarantee success. Tencent Holdings#39; TCEHY +0.53% hundreds of millions of instant messenger users haven#39;t translated into market share for its search function. But assuming at least some users are too lazy to change the default, Qihoo should gain some search-market traction. 不过,凭借其在中国浏览器市场逾20%的份额,奇虎360拥有强大的分销网络。但这并不能保奇虎360能在搜索市场取得成功。腾讯控股有限公司(Tencent Holdings)拥有数亿即时通讯用户,但这并没有使其搜索务所占市场份额大幅扩张。不过,假如一些用户懒得改变默认设置,奇虎360应该能够在搜索市场夺取一定的份额。 Investors aren#39;t taking any chances. Baidu#39;s stock price has fallen 16% from its mid-August high. Qihoo#39;s stock is up nearly the same amount over the same period. That seems like an overreaction to the immediate threat. But even if Baidu manages to see off Qihoo, the sneak attack is a reminder that dominance can#39;t be taken for granted. 但投资者则相当谨慎。百度股价较8月中旬的高点跌了16%,同期奇虎360股价则上涨了几乎同样的幅度。这看似是对即刻的威胁反应过度了。不过,就算百度能够击败奇虎360,奇虎360的偷袭也提醒人们主导地位并不是天经地义的。 Google has spent big on developing its own Chrome browser - now the most used in the world, according to web analytics company StatCounter - and Android mobile operating system. That has been expensive. But that means that it controls the routes into search from computer and smartphone. Google+ hasn#39;t enjoyed the same success but shows it is responding to the threat from social search as well. 谷歌一直在斥巨资开发自己的Chrome浏览器和安卓(Android)移动操作系统。据网络分析公司StatCounter的数据,Chrome目前是全球使用最多的浏览器。谷歌的这类研发花费不菲,但这也意味着谷歌能对电脑和智能手机搜索的通路拥有控制权。谷歌社交网站Google+则没有这么成功,但也显示出正在对来自社交搜索的威胁做出反应。 Baidu, by contrast, has been relatively timid in expanding beyond the core search business. Its PC browser has attracted relatively few users. Its social offering got the cold shoulder from China#39;s Internet users. Market share in mobile search is below that for PCs, though Baidu is moving aggressively to turn that around. 与此相反,百度对其核心搜索业务之外领域的涉猎一直相对谨小慎微。百度个人电脑浏览器吸引的用户数量相对而言微乎其微,其社交网站则受到中国互联网用户的冷遇。百度在移动搜索市场的份额低于在个人电脑搜索市场的份额,不过百度正在积极扭转这一局面。 Qihoo#39;s smash-and-grab raid might not have a lasting effect, but it shows Baidu is vulnerable to those who control the pathways to search. 奇虎360的袭击可能不会产生持久的效果,但这却显示出在那些控制着搜索通路的公司面前,百度也是有弱点的。 /201209/197949。

Benzi Ronen thinks that the supermarkets’ time is up. And his company is just the thing to speed up its demise.本齐·罗内恩认为超市的时代即将结束,而他的公司正是加速其消亡的催化剂。“Our goal is to make the supermarket obsolete from a fresh perspective,” Ronen says.罗内恩表示:“我们的目标是以生鲜为卖点,让超市变得过时。”Farmigo, his five-year-old 30-employee startup, sells produce and other products like milk and cheese purchased directly from farmers for 10%-20% less than equivalent grocery store items. He does it by shrinking the supply chain, essentially taking out the middleman. Users place an order online; the order is fulfilled by a farmer who transports it to a centralized packing hub; and then Farmigo delivers it to community drop-off points for the customer to pick up. This all happens within 48 hours.他5年前创建的Farmigo公司现拥有30名员工。这家公司出售直接从农民处购买的农作物和牛奶、乳酪等产品,售价比杂货店的均价低10%到20%不等。其奥秘在于缩短了供应链,特别是去掉了中间环节。用户直接在网上下单,农民将产品送到中转站集中包装,Farmigo公司再将包裹送到社区配送点,顾客从那里取走包裹。这一切都在48小时之内完成。“We don’t have a retail store,” Benzi explains. “We get rid of all of that. We source just in time.” That means there’s no waste and produce is brought directly from harvest.罗内恩解释道:“我们没有零售店,我们完全去除了零售环节,但依然能够及时供货。”这意味着中间没有冗余环节,农产品直接从庄稼地运送至顾客那里。Other sellers, such as Fresh Direct, also cut out the physical store. But Ronen argues that they’re just an extension of the supermarket model, with similar warehouses that keep a huge inventory on hand. By contrast, Farmigo’s hubs are filled exclusively with product that’s just been delivered by farmers and is going out for delivery.Fresh Direct等其他零售商也取消了实体店。但罗内恩认为他们不过是超市模式的某种延伸,这类零售商依然跟超市一样,拥有储备大量存货的仓库。相反,Farmigo的中转站只有由农民送来,即将送去顾客那里的农产品。“Our entire food system is based on economies of scale,” he explains, adding that it has contributed to the hub-and-spoke distribution model in which food travels hundreds of miles and can sit on shelves for weeks. “You don’t get fresh in supermarkets, and you also have waste,” he says.他解释道:“我们的整个食品供应系统是以规模效益为基础的。”他补充说,这是对中心轴辐式配送模式的一种改良,在这种模式下,食品往往被运送几百英里,经常在货架上停留好几周。他表示:“超市里的产品不够新鲜,而且容易造成浪费。”If Ronen’s vision for the future becomes a reality, in 10 years you’ll get all of your non-perishables from the likes of Amazon, while a service like Farmigo will answer all of your fresh needs. Neighborhood stores will act as gap-fillers for last-minute purchases. Farmigo, he notes, will never be a gap-filler. Currently orders must be placed by Sunday night for pick-up on Wednesday, but Ronen says the company is on track to soon expand to multiple pick-up days.如果罗内恩的愿景变成现实,不出十年,你将从亚马逊(Amazon)等网站购买所有不易损害的物品,而Farmigo这类务商会满足你所有的生鲜产品需求,社区商店则会成为需要紧急购买商品时的备选方案。罗内恩认为,Farmigo绝不会成为备选方案。目前,如果客户想在周三取货,他或她最晚要在周日晚下订单,但罗内恩表示该公司很快就将增加取货天数。It’s a highly audacious vision for a small upstart, especially in a world where consumers are accustomed to eating strawberries and tomatoes no matter the season, enjoy clementines flown in from Morocco and sea bass from Chile, and want purchases delivered to their doorstep within 24-hour hours.对一个小型初创公司而言,这是一个十分大胆的愿望,尤其是现在的顾客已经习惯于随时享用草莓或番茄而不必考虑季节,习惯于品尝空运自洛哥的克莱门氏小柑橘和智利的黑鲈,同时还希望他们购买的产品能在下单后24小时内送到家门口。Right now Brooklyn-based Farmigo operates just in New York City and its environs and the San Francisco Bay Area, markets picked for their divergent agricultural offerings–one strongly shaped by the seasons, the other with stellar food options year round. If Farmigo can operate in these two regions, Ronen thinks the company will be able to replicate the model and build a network of farmers across the country.目前这家位于布鲁克林的公司只对纽约市和周边地区,以及旧金山湾区提供务。他们会提供不同的农产品——一部分是与季节有关的时令产品,另一些则是全年都有的主食。罗内恩认为,如果Farmigo可以在这两个地区运作下去,该公司就能复制这一模式,建立一个覆盖全美的农户网络。Farmigo could eventually reach about 20%-30% of the U.S. population based on people’s buying habits and guidelines, Ronen says, adding that community-supported agriculture programs (CSAs) currently reach less than 1%. Unlike CSAs, in which users must commit to weekly deliveries for a season from one farm, Farmigo lets customers place a one-time order and change selections every week. You pay as you go. Ronen views CSAs as supplementary to other grocery shopping. He envisions Farmigo as a replacement for all fresh needs.罗内恩表示,根据人们的购买习惯和购买方针来看,Farmigo最终可能会向20%至30%的美国人提供务,而目前只有不到1%的美国人参与了“社区持农业项目”(CSA)。参加CSA项目的顾客必须承诺在一个季度之内,每周都从某个农场订购农产品。相比之下,Farmigo的顾客可以只发出一次性订单,也可以每周选择不同的农产品,根据订单的变化随时调整付款金额。罗内恩认为,CSA项目是对家门口小超市购物的补充,而Farmigo则是满足所有生鲜食品需求的取代者。Farmigo’s average order size is up to from a year and a half ago, in large part because the startup keeps adding new products (such as fish, and soon, fresh pasta). There’s now enough variety that one could live solely on Farmigo’s offerings. One of Ronen’s employees has been doing just that for months at a cost of about a meal, and Ronen just signed on for what is internally called the “Farmigo Challenge.”Farmigo的订单均价从一年半前的15美元涨到了现在的38美元,很大原因是这家初创公司在不断增加新品(比如鱼类,很快还会有新鲜的意大利面条上市)。如今他们提供的种类已经足够多,人们单单靠Farmigo的供应就能满足日常需求。罗内恩的一名员工就这样做了几个月,平均一餐大约花费5美元。而罗内恩也开始加入这一行动,他们内部把这叫做“Farmigo挑战”。Ronen acknowledges that the pricing is still prohibitive for some—an organic cantaloupe costs .50—but the more he can improve the efficiencies for the farmer by increasing their business, the better the price tag for the customer.罗内恩承认,某些产品的价格仍然过高,比如,一个有机哈密瓜的售价高达6.5美元。不过,随着农民的生产效率因生意规模的扩大而不断改善,农产品售价将变得越来越实惠。Farmigo started out as the maker of software for an online marketplace where consumers could find and sign up for CSAs. But Ronen says it was a confusing user experience because the sign-up and payment system differed for each offering. Farmigo then evolved into a place where users could order online from any farm, and the farmer would deliver to a pick-up location. That had its challenges because sometimes farmers would run into logistical hiccups and miss the drop-off. “We realized we really needed to get into operational side,” Ronen says.创立伊始,Farmigo公司的主要业务是为一家电商编写软件,以帮助顾客寻找和参加CSA项目。但罗内恩表示,当时的购买体验让不少用户抓狂,因为各个农产品供应商采用完全不同的下单和付系统。Farmigo随后演变成了一家网站,用户可以在上面订购任何农场的产品,农民则将货物寄到配送点。这种流程存在一些运营挑战,因为农民的物流有时候会出问题,导致货物丢失。罗内恩表示:“我们意识到我们真的需要自己亲自来运作。”While the company continues to sell its CSA software, it also now has free offerings that help its farms know when to hire, its warehouses know what to pack, and its drivers know what to deliver. Ronen says that its farmers walk away with 60-70% of the sale, the community organizer who runs the drop-off gets 10%, and Farmigo gets the rest. Normally a farmer gets about 30% of the sale when they sell to wholesale, with about 50% going to the retailer. Another advantage advantage for farmers in the Farmigo system, according to Ronen: They’re also paid immediately directly by the consumer, rather than the standard 30-60 days.这家公司仍然在销售CSA软件,同时也提供了免费务,让农场知道什么时候需要雇佣更多人手,让仓库知道要打包什么货物,让司机知道要运送什么包裹。罗内恩表示,农民会获得销售额的60%至70%,社区取货点会获得销售额的10%,剩下的则由Farmigo收入囊中。一般来说,农民在卖给批发市场时,只能获得30%的销售额,而有50%的销售额会进入零售商的口袋。根据罗内恩的说法,Farmigo系统对农民还有另一个好处:他们能立刻收到顾客的付款,而在其他模式下,农民通常得等上30至60天才能拿到钱。The Fresh Directs and Amazons need the density of cities to function, but Ronen believes his model works well in the suburbs where pick-up locations–churches, schools, golf clubs–are easy to come by. Farmigo recently expanded into northern New Jersey and Westchester and is adding about 30 drop-off sites a month.Fresh Directs和亚马逊在人口密集的城市地区才能如鱼得水,但罗内恩相信他的模式在郊区也能运转良好,诸如教堂、学校、高尔夫俱乐部这样的取货点也很容易找到。Farmigo最近把业务范围扩张到了新泽西州北部和韦斯切斯特地区,并以每月30个的速度增加社区配送点。He views Farmigo as the virtualization of a food cooperative and a good solution for locations where it might be hard to justify a supermarket. “We’re not just sending food out there and hoping people are going to buy it,” he says. “We’re sending out what was pre-ordered and pre-purchased. The pickup is at one location so it’s very portable and cost effective to do delivery.”罗内恩将Farmigo视为虚拟化的食品合作社,对那些很难找到超市的地区来说,它会是一个很好的选择。他表示:“我们不是把食品送到那里,然后指望大家去购买。我们配送的是已经被预定和购买的产品。取货点也处于一个便利位置,因此送货非常方便,效率很高。” /201408/319406。

It reported an operating profit of 11m in the first half of this year. But on an underlying basis its operating profit was 524m, giving it an adjusted margin of 9.4 per cent of sales, compared with minus 0.5 per cent for mobiles. NSN今年上半年的营运利润为1100万欧元。但其基本营业利润高达5.24亿欧元,这使其经调整后的销售利润率达到9.4%,远高于手机部门-0.5%的水平。 Crudely splitting out the mobile phone division would have left Nokia with about half of the 11.5bn in sales it reported in the first six months of this year. But it would still have nursed an operating loss because of the poor performance of its mapping division, which it will keep along with NSN and its portfolio of patents. 诺基亚今年前六个月的销售业绩为115亿欧元,若粗略剔除手机部门,将使销售额下降大约二分之一。但该公司仍将产生营业亏损,受地图部门的糟糕业绩拖累——诺基亚将保留该部门、NSN以及自身的专利组合。 Investors appear to be happy with Nokia’s new focus: its shares are up 41 per cent this week. “Nokia’s dismal earnings and cash development have been solely driven by its ailing devices business. 投资者似乎很满意诺基亚的新主营方向:该公司股价本周上涨了41%。北欧联合(Nordea)分析师萨米#8226;萨尔卡梅斯(Sami Sarkamies)在一份报告中写道:“诺基亚陷入困境的手机业务是导致该公司盈利惨淡以及现金流吃紧的唯一原因。” “Now that those problems are out of the way, we expect investors to gradually start viewing Nokia as the number three global mobile network supplier it is, along with a strong patent portfolio – in essence a smaller version of Ericsson,” Sami Sarkamies, analyst at Nordea, wrote in a report. “现在这些障碍都已被清除,我们预计投资者将逐渐正视诺基亚的市场地位,该公司是全球第三大移动网络设备供应商,并且拥有一个强大的专利组合——换句话说,诺基亚相当于规模略小的爱立信。” He says that, assuming a 1.50 per share extraordinary dividend from Nokia, Ericsson still trades at a 40 per cent premium based on next year’s estimated earnings. 萨尔卡梅斯指出,假设诺基亚派发每股1.5欧元的特别股息,按照明年的预期盈利计算,爱立信相对于诺基亚的股价溢价仍高达40%。 “We find this completely unwarranted considering that Nokia is now a potential acquisition target for Samsung, and faced with notable upside related to a potential US market entry” if the struggling Alcatel-Lucent withdraws, he adds. 萨尔卡梅斯补充称:“我们认为这种溢价是毫无道理的,因为诺基亚现已成为三星(Samsung)的潜在收购目标,而进军美国市场的可能性还使其具有很大的上行潜力——如果目前处境艰难的阿尔卡特朗讯(Alcatel-Lucent)退出的话。” Not everyone is so sanguine. A former senior Nokia executive says: “It’s obviously a tricky and risky decision to focus on NSN.” 不过不是所有人都如此乐观。诺基亚的一位前高管表示:“将NSN作为业务重点无疑是一个棘手而有风险的决定。” He frets that Nokia is in a way leaping out of the frying pan and into the fire with the likes of Ericsson, Huawei and ZTE proving to be formidable rivals. 他担心,诺基亚从某种意义上来说是刚跳出油锅、又落入火坑,将要面对爱立信、华为(Huawei)、中兴(ZTE)等已被明相当可怕的对手。 “The visibility is so much less than it used to be and the competitive landscape is so different. Can you be a winner among Ericsson and two or three Chinese companies?” he says. 他指出:“目前市场的能见度比过去大大降低,竞争版图已大不相同。你能在与爱立信以及两至三家中国企业的竞争中胜出吗?” Mr Siilasmaa refuses to be drawn, merely noting that NSN has come a long way in the past three years: from Nokia’s problem child to the cornerstone of the company. 斯拉斯玛拒绝被拉入争论,而只是指出NSN在过去三年中取得了很大进展:从诺基亚的问题儿童,变成了公司的业务基石。 That may be comforting to some because of its rebound in profitability, but NSN, run out of the glare of great publicity for much of the past six years, will now be firmly in the spotlights. NSN的盈利能力反弹可能会让某些人感到安慰。但是,过去六年来大部分时间里不受关注的NSN,现在将牢牢处于聚光灯下。 One person involved in the deal says: “Now NSN is going to become the core business, there is going to be a tremendous amount of focus on it.” 一名参与诺基亚出售手机业务交易的人士表示:“现在NSN将成为诺基亚的核心业务,并将受到密切关注。” /201309/255853。

How many iPhones will Apple sell in China?It's tempting to multiply China's 700 million mobile phone users by a percentage pulled out of a hat, and now that China Unicom has announced its deal with Apple (AAPL), everybody seems to be doing it. Result: Published estimates of how many iPhones Apple will sell in China next year that range from a low of 1 million to a high of 14 million. Here are the numbers we've seen: #8226; UBS analyst Maynard Um: 1 million in fiscal 2010 #8226; Sanford Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi: 2.9 million by end of 2011 #8226; Standard amp; Poor’s Clyde Montevirgen: 4 million in calendar 2010 #8226; Susquehana Financial's Jeffrey Fidicaro: 2 million to 5 million #8226; Broadpoint AmTech's Brian Marshall: 5 million to 7 million in 2010 #8226; iPhonAsia's Dan Butterfield: 14 million in the first year of sales Everybody's guessing, of course, since China Unicom hasn't even announced its pricing or its terms. Meanwhile, Susquehana's Fidicaro offers investors this handy formula: For every additional 1 million phones Apple sells next year, you can add 18 to 20 cents to the company's earnings per share. The Street currently expects Apple to earn .84 a share in fiscal 2009 and .79 a share in 2010, according to Thomson Financial. /200909/83053。