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2019年10月18日 08:10:21 | 作者:最新媒体 | 来源:新华社

Science and Technology Seismology and tsunamis Making waves科技 地震学与海啸 掀起新浪潮A better tsunami-prediction system is now under development更精准的海啸预测系统现已在开发中GEOLOGISTS have long known that some marine earthquakes generate fierce tsunamis and some do not. But, as the situation in Japan makes painfully clear, there is no good way for people being tossed around by a tremor to know the difference until a wave arrives. A new earthquake-monitoring system developed by Andrew Newman and Jaime Convers at the Georgia Institute of Technology may, however, help to change that.地质学家们早已知道有的海洋地震会引起强烈海啸,而有的则不会。但是,日本的惨痛教训告诉我们,被地震震得惊慌失控的人们根本意识不到一场海啸即将到来(在海啸到来之前,被地震震得惊惶失措的人们对此一无所知。)。而现在,由乔治亚理工学院的安德鲁?纽曼与亚伊梅?康弗斯共同研发的最新地震监测系统有望改变现状。During an earthquake, the Earths crust is uplifted. If the epicentre is on the seabed, that also lifts the water above the bed, creating a wave. However, the size of this wave varies with the nature of the uplift.地震时,地壳板块隆升。如果震中位于海底,板块运动带动上方海水起伏,形成波浪。波浪大小因板块隆升性质而定。For tsunami-generating purposes, earthquakes can generally be divided into two sorts. Deep ones (as a rule of thumb, those below 20km, or 12 miles) generate small or non-existent tsunamis because their uplifting effects are absorbed by the overburden. Shallow ones (above 20km), whose full crust-displacing force is felt at the surface, are the danger. The problem is deciding which is which. Once all the data are in, an earthquakes depth can be worked out with reasonable accuracy. But that takes time. The recent Japanese quake, for example, was thought initially to have happened 83km down. The latest measurements suggests its depth was actually 30km. Normally, that would still put it in the class of safe earthquakes, but it was so powerful that the usual rules did not apply.按照是否引发海啸,地震可分两类。一是深震(一般在20km或12英里以下),隆升通常被表层所吸收,因此不引发海啸或只引发小型海啸。二是浅震(20km以上),由于地表震感强烈,因此也更危险。当前的问题是如何区分这两者。只要有全面的数据,则可较精准地测算地震的深度。然而,这一过程需花费一定时间。例如,近期日本地震最初深度测算为地下83km,而最近的一次测算结果却显示,深度实为30km。通常来说,30km仍可划入安全等级。但此次地震能量巨大,以往的经验概不管用。The secret of the new method is that depth changes an earthquakes character in ways other than just its tsunami-generating propensity. The rupture in the rock that causes a deep earthquake propagates rapidly—at about 3km a second. A shallow rupture moves more slowly: 1?km a second is common. The speed seems related to the rigidity of the rock that is rupturing, and deep rock, which is under more pressure, is more rigid. Shallow rocks bend, and that slows the rupture down. The effect is to give seismologists a tool they can use to make an instant estimate of an earthquakes depth and thus, if it is submarine, the risk of its creating a big tsunami.新系统的秘密在于地震深度对地震性质的改变不仅仅停留在是否引发海啸的问题上。岩层断裂引发深震传播速度很快——大约3km/秒。而浅震传播速度较慢:一般约1.5km/秒。速度可能与断裂岩层的坚硬程度有关,深层岩体受压力更大,也更坚硬。浅层岩体有韧度,可减缓断裂。地震学家可据此迅速估算地震深度,如果是海洋地震,还能估算地震是否引发强烈海啸。The system Dr Newman and Mr Convers have developed taps into hundreds of seismic monitoring stations around the world. When an earthquake is detected, the software immediately looks at the size of the tremor and the location of its epicentre. If the quakes magnitude is greater than 6.5 and the epicentre is underwater, it then requests information from the relevant stations on how long the earthquake took from beginning to end. That allows it to work out how quickly energy was released by the earthquake, and thus how fast the rupture propagated. An energy-release rate indicating a rupture rate of 1?km a second or less sets the alarm bells ringing, for the earthquake has probably spawned a tsunami—though the system is also sensitive to the actual earthquake magnitude, and adjusts accordingly, so it did not miss the tsunami-creating potential of the Japanese earthquake either.纽曼士与康弗斯先生研发的新系统接入了世界各地几百所地震监测站。当检测到地震时,该系统软件立即测算地震规模与震中位置。如果级数超过6.5级且震中位于水下,系统则要求相关监测站报送地震全程持续时间。这一信息可帮助计算地震能量释放速度,并以此计算岩层断裂速度。岩层断裂速度达1.5km/秒以下的能量释放速度将会拉响警报,而这时极有可能引发海啸——尽管如此,该系统也能检测出地震级数并作出相应调整,因此也检测出了日本地震会引发海啸的风险。The two researchers tried their invention out last year and analysed a great many quakes, including one of magnitude 7.8 that happened on October 25th in western Indonesia. The epicentre was 70km from the Mentawai islands, and the quake was felt there only weakly. But it still raised a devastating tsunami (see picture above) that killed more than 400 islanders.两位研究者去年对该发明进行了测试,用以分析了许多地震,包括去年10月25日印尼西部发生的里氏7.8级地震。震中位于距民大威群岛70km处,岛上只有轻微震感。但是,地震随后引发了一次破坏力极强的海啸(见上图),导致400多位岛民死亡。The system quickly detected this quake and the two researchers reported recently in Geophysical Research Letters that it automatically identified the tsunami threat 8? minutes after the earthquake began. It then ran a series of checks, and after 16? minutes was completely certain that conditions were right for a tsunami to form. Since it took 35 minutes for the tsunami to come ashore, the system could, had it been used to sound the alarm, have given people 18? minutes to flee. Unfortunately, it was not then attached to any sort of alarm that could let the Mentawai islanders know that they were in danger.该系统迅速检测到印尼地震,两位研究者近期在向《地理物理研究快报》的报告中指出,系统在地震开始后8.5分钟自动检测到震后海啸威胁。随后,系统启动了一系列检查程序,震后16.5分钟便完全确定海啸即将发生。因为海啸将在震后35分钟后到达,如果使用该系统发出警报,则为人们赢得了18.5分钟宝贵的逃生时间。不幸的是,该系统当时还未与警报系统结合,因此无法及时通知民大威群岛岛民海啸险情。With luck, such a lack of warning will not happen again. By the summer the system should be hooked up to alarms around the world, and will be able to determine tsunami risk within seven minutes of a shock being detected. It will then be up to local authorities to have evacuation plans in place. But they will no longer be able to say they did not see it coming.而幸运的是,缺乏警报机制的这种情况以后不会再有了。今年夏天之前,该系统将会与全世界警报系统相连接,并将会在检测到地震后7分钟内确定海啸发生的概率。随后则由地方政府开展撤离计划。到那时,政府便不可能再推脱说不知道海啸会来了。 /201301/221770

Obituary;Brian Haw讣告;布莱恩·霍Brian Haw, peace campaigner, died on June 18th, aged 62布莱恩·霍——和平活动家,于六月十八日逝世,享年六十二岁When Brian Haw sat in his old canvas chair in front of his banner-hung tent in Parliament Square, people kept coming by. Tourists with their cameras. Teenagers drinking beer. Commuters on their way to work. Taxis, vans, bicycles. Bloody big black cars with lying politicians in them. Buses with passengers all on their phones or buried in their papers. Drivers who wound down the car window, not stopping, and shouted “Get a job!”国会广场上悬挂着标语的帐篷前,布莱恩·霍坐在他那老旧的帆布椅子上,过往路人川流不息。有带相机的游客,喝啤酒的少年,还有往返于工作路上的人群。的士、货车、自行车,还有说谎的政客们乘坐的超长黑色轿车都从此经过。公交车上乘客都忙着打电话或埋头于报纸。司机放下车窗,但没有停车,冲他喊道:“找份工作吧!”Wasnt that nice. But he had a job. He had it for ten years in sun, rain, sleet, snow. Never left the square. And his job was this. Get the people to wake up. Get them to realise that the USA and the UK were killing babies. Hundreds were dying every day in this place called Iraq and this place called Afghanistan. He had their photographs on his wall of shame. Bloated, pathetic, missing limbs. Sanctions were killing them. Sanctions and bombs. And especially, check out depleted uranium munitions. That poison was everywhere, in the air, in the water, even between the grains of sand. There wasnt a Hoover in the world big enough to suck up all that shit. And everyone was responsible. Everyone. Raping and pillaging and murdering the world. Just to get that stuff called oil. FOOD YES, BOMBS NO, his banners said. COLAT DAME, NO. A GENOCIDE TOO FAR. STOP KILLING MY KIDS.司机是出于好意。但他是有工作的。十年来不管是晴是雨,是霰是雪,他都坚守岗位,从未离开过广场。他的工作就是唤醒大家。让人们意识到美国和英国政府在杀害婴孩。在一个叫伊拉克和一个叫阿富汗的地方每天都有成百上千的婴孩死去。他把他们的照片贴在他的羞耻墙上。这些孩子或身体浮肿,或悲惨可怜,或缺胳膊少腿。制裁害死了他们。制裁和炸弹。特别地,看看贫铀弹的威力吧。有毒物质散发到了各个角落,空气中,水中,甚至沙土中。世界上可没有足够大的真空吸尘器能把那些毒物吸光。而且,每一个人都要负责。无一例外,人人都在榨取、掠夺地球的资源,使地球活力渐失。这一切都只是为了得到那个叫石油的东西。他的标语上书:“食物,可以,炸弹,不可以 ,蓄意破坏,不可以。这是大规模种族屠杀。停止杀害我的孩子们。”People from the whole wide world filmed him on a regular basis. They liked to photograph his old corduroy hat—more badges than hat—which said THE WAR IS THE ENEMY OF THE POOR and SUPPORT US TROOPS—BRING EM HOME! They asked him how he slept. (Badly. How would you sleep if 200 babies were dying every day?) They fussed over how he ate. (Mostly chips people brought him and coffee with five sugars. He was lean as a twig. But you know what? People in Calcutta would think he was a king to have so much pavement to live on.) They asked about the mice. They had nested in his sheepskin coat once. He was far more worried about the rats across the road.来自世界各地的人们经常拍摄他。他们喜欢拍他那顶旧灯芯绒帽子,更主要是为了拍上面的徽章,徽章上写着:战争是穷人的克星,帮助美军——让他们回家!他们问他是怎么睡觉的。(很难入眠。如果每天有200个婴孩死去,你还睡得着吗?)他们对他的饮食大为惊异。(大部分来自人们给他带的薯条和加五种糖的咖啡。他骨瘦如柴。但你知道吗?印度加尔各答市的人们会觉得他有这么宽的人行道可以住,是国王般的待遇了。)他们问老鼠怎么处理。有一次老鼠在他的羊皮大衣上做窝。相比他更担心马路对面的老鼠们。When he talked, he sounded tired. He was. Tired of the bollocks. Tired of people not taking responsibility for their inhumaneness to their fellow man. He probably smoked too much, too. Breathed in too much exhaust. Between sentences he would work his stubbly chin as if chewing on unpalatable facts. Then hed sing:他说话间透着疲倦。确实,他受够了政客的谎言。也因人们的没人性,不为自己的同胞承担责任而深感无力。也有可能是他吸烟太多,吸进了太多废气。说话间他会扬起他那胡子拉碴的下巴,似乎在沉思那些令他不快的事实。接着他会歌唱:Last night I had the strangest dream, Id ever dreamed before;昨晚我做了一个奇特无比的梦,一个从未做过的梦;I dreamed the world had all agreed, to put an end to war.我梦见世界大同,再无战争。He spoke like an evangelist, because he was one. His parents were Christian, and hed found Jesus too at Sunshine Corner beach school in Whitstable. After the merchant navy, he went missionising round Redditch in a minivan. He moved to Parliament Square in 2001 to express his Christian outrage about sanctions. Bushs and Blairs wars kept him there. He loved his neighbours kids as his own because he was a Christian. Other so-called Christians bombed them. Other “believers”, also in the square, didnt care. (WESTMINSTER ABBEY, WAKE UP!) If the people who had marched in 2003 against the Iraq war had stayed, like him, the politicians would have thought again.他说话就像一名福音传教士,因为他本来就是。他的父母都是基督教徒,呆在惠茨特布尔的阳光一角沙滩学校时他也投入了基督教门下。离开商船队以后,他驾驶一辆小型货车前往雷丁奇附近传教。2001年他来到国会广场以表达作为一名基督徒对于制裁的义愤。他留在那里是因为布什和布莱尔发起的战争。他爱其他国家的孩子就像爱自己的孩子一样,因为他是一名基督徒。而另一些所谓的基督徒则用炸弹轰炸他们。其他同样在广场上的“信徒”则漠不关心。(西敏寺,醒来吧!)如果2003年反抗伊拉克战争的游行人群像他一样坚守下去,也许政治家们会三思而后行。Police abuse粗鲁的警察His megaphone helped sp the message. ARREST GEORGE BUSH, WAR CRIMINAL! HI TONY! 45 MINUTES, MR BLAIR. MR B-L-I-A-R. They could hear him even in the Commons chamber. At first Tony Blair said good old Brian, what a champion of free speech. Yes, he was. He defended the right to free expression in front of Parliament: 350 years of peaceful protest. Some rapper boys from South London came up and hugged him once. They said they totally supported him, fuck Parliament, fuck em all. But he wouldnt have that. He just answered Love, Peace, Justice, stop killing my kids.他借助扩音器来传达信念。逮捕乔治·布什,战犯!你好,托尼!45分钟,布莱尔先生。布-莱-尔先生。即使在下议院会议厅里都听得到他的声音。起初,托尼·布莱尔评价他是个好老头布莱恩,言论自由的赢家。是的,他的确是。他守卫了自己在国会面前自由表达思想的权利:有着350年历史的和平抗议。曾有一次几个伦敦南部来的饶舌歌手和他拥抱。他们说完全持他的行为,去他的国会,去他们的。但他不会说脏话。他只用爱,和平,正义,停止杀害孩子来表达。The authorities soon got tired of him, though. Westminster Council tried to remove him because he was a nuisance and “obstructing the pavement”. It failed. By 2005 Tony decided hed had enough of the name-calling. The Serious Organised Crime and Police Act said Mr Haw had to give six days notice, if you please, of any demonstration within a kilometre of Parliament. How could he do that? The High Court ruled against it, and said he was legal. But the police never acted as though he was. Any morning they might wake him up with a siren, whoop, whoop, Are you there Brian, yank up his plastic, rifle through his private property right in front of Parliament. Who was abusing whom then? In 2006 78 of them came to tear down his wall of pictures, smashed it, trashed it, left it like a bomb site. Left him with one sign. He stayed, of course.然而,当局很快就对他厌烦了。西敏寺地方政府试图把他赶走,因为他是他们的眼中钉,而且“阻塞了人行道”。行动没有成功。到了2005年,托尼声称他听够了指责。严严重有组织犯罪和警察法规定霍先生如果一定要在距国会一千米内抗议的话就将被拘留六天。他要怎么办呢?高级法院否决了这一法案,并且称他的行为合法。但警察的行为就好像他是非法的一样。每天早晨警察都用呜呜叫的警笛将他闹醒,就在国会前面拉开他的塑料帐篷,迅速搜查他的私人财产。究竟是谁在谴责谁呢?2006年,78个警察拆倒了他的照片墙,将照片撕碎、丢弃,现场就像被炸弹轰炸了一样。只给他留下了一个签名。但当然,他还是留在那里。People asked him about his own kids, seven of them. An off-limits topic. Family was left behind when he came to the square. His wife had divorced him, hed learned. It wasnt his fault. He hadnt wanted to stay eight bloody years away from them, with the pollution and the drunks who broke his nose and the thugs who shouted “Wanker!” at him. He stayed because he wasnt finished yet. And you know what? It was never fundamentally about free speech and the rights of Englishmen and all that stuff. It was about the dead children. And not walking by.他有七个孩子,人们问起他自己的孩子怎么样,这是一个禁止谈论的话题。自从他到广场安家后,家庭就被抛之脑后了。他获知,他的妻子同他离婚了。这不是他的错。他也不想他妈的远离亲人八年时间,经历污染,还被几个醉汉打破了鼻子,还有暴徒冲他喊道:“蠢货!”。他留下是因为他还没有达成目标。你知道吗?从根本上说,这绝不是关于自由言论和英国人的权利或其他这类的东西。根本上说是为了那些死去的孩子,而不是为吸引路人。201206/187256

The recession is much bigger than anybody in the troika ever foresaw, we have a humanitarian crisis in Greece, yes I totally agree with that, the problem with Mr. Tsipras, that he believes that there is a magical way to bring the situation back to what it was three years ago without making any changes, but this is not possible, we need a structural change in the economy.这一危机比troika公司任何人预见的预见的都更为严重。希腊目前正处于人道主义危机之中。今天,我和Tsipras先生的看法完全一致,他认为只有神秘的力量能够在不做任何改变的条件下,让局势回到三年前的样子。但是这是不可能的,我们必须进行经济结构性变革。Cancelling debt, we are talking about restructuring part of the debt see it was aly done as you know, there is a talk going on that maybe this is needed, its the IMFs position, we will see if it is needed, but anyway whatever is needed must be done in the decision making, must be made now, Greece cannot wait any more, what i said yesterday in another interview was that we cannot wait for the bailout money, because it was due yesterday, it was due in June.我们正在谈论债务重组的问题,它的进展情况如你所知,目前必要的谈话正在进行,即IMF的立场,我们将看到这一会谈是否有必要,但是无论如何,必须做出决定了,必须现在做出决定。希腊不能等待,我昨天在接受另外一个采访时说,我们等不起救市资金了,因为救市资金昨天就该到位,6月就该到位了。Whats your alternative? you have to wait if you put everything in the hands of the Brussels.那您的方案是什么呢?如果把希望完全寄托在那些布鲁塞尔人手中(欧洲委员会),你只能等待。Well i know we have to wait, thats why we are asking our European partners not to delay, it is very important that our European partners understand that we cannot afford any other delay, we need the money and we need the whole of the tranche and we need it now.我知道我们不得不等待,这也是为什么我们要求欧洲同伴不要拖延的原因所在。让我们的欧洲同伴知道我们等不起,我们需要钱,我们需要IMF全部救助款、我们现在就需要,这将非常重要。Should Greece stay in the Euro zone?希腊还应该呆在欧元区吗?Yes of course, thats why we fought very hard, there was two election campaigns fought over that, because practically for us it is a very very important target to stay inside the Euro zone, we understand that this is the biggest crisis the Euro has faced since it exists, and it shows also that the Euro was not well prepared for crisis, but from this crisis we must learn, we need new tools in Europe, we need another way of thinking, we need more solidarity, we need a quicker decision making, and i think that this is the lesson for all of European partners which we will have to take from this crisis.是的,当然。这就是我们努力抗挣的原因,过去的两次选举都为此抗挣过,因为对我们来说,实际上,继续保留在欧元区非常重要,我们知道这是欧元区有史以来的面临的最严重的一次危机。此次危机也显示出欧元区在危机面前措手不及。但是我们必须从危机中汲取教训。欧洲需要新手段,需要新的思路,需要团结,需要更快的决策。并且我认为,这是所有欧洲盟友都必须从危机中学到的经验。201211/211421

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