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福州检查宫外孕那间医院好福州去那里输卵管结扎龙岩试管婴儿哪里好 A South Korean court has struck down a controversial, decades-old law that bans extra-marital sex.一家韩国法院废除了一项禁止婚外性行为的法律。这项具有争议的法律已经施行了数十年。The Constitutional Court on Thursday ruled by a vote of seven to two against the adultery ban, which was enacted in 1953.韩国宪法法院星期四进行投票,以七票对两票的表决结果废除了通奸法。该法律是1953年颁行的。;Even if adultery should be condemned as immoral, state power should not intervene in individual private lives,; said presiding justice Park Han-Chul.首席法官朴翰哲说:“即使通奸行为应该受到道义谴责,国家权力也不应干预个人的私生活。”More than 5,400 people have been indicted on adultery charges in the past six years, according to official figures, though jail terms were rarely given out under the law.韩国官方公布的数字显示,在以往六年期间,5400多人被控犯有通奸罪,不过极少依法判刑。The adultery ban initially was seen as an attempt to promote gender equality, since married women had few other rights. But the law became increasingly unpopular as South Korean culture rapidly modernized in recent decades.颁布通奸禁令的目的是倡导性别平等,因为当时的韩国已婚女子几乎没有其他权利。近几十年来,随着韩国文化迅速现代化,反对这项法律的呼声日益增高。 /201502/361032南平治疗早泄哪里比较好

福州市一人民医院第三代试管China#39;s great real-estate bust has begun, says Nomura. A combination of a huge oversupply of housing and a shortage of developer financing is producing a housing market downturn that could drive China#39;s GDP to less than 6% this year. 野村(Nomura)称,中国房地产调整已经开始。大规模的住房供应过剩,再加上开发商资金短缺,造成了中国住房市场的滑坡,或拖累今年中国国内生产总值(GDP)增速放缓至6%以下。#39;To us, it is no longer a question of #39;if#39; but rather #39;how severe#39; the property market correction will be,#39; three Nomura analysts wrote in a report released Monday. And there isn#39;t much the government can do to head off problems.野村分析师在周一公布的报告中称,对于野村来说,问题已经不是房地产市场是否会出现调整,而是这个调整会有多严重;而且,政府在应对相关问题上没有太多的回旋余地。#39;There is no policy that is universally right,#39; says Nomura analyst Zhiwei Zhang. 野村分析师张智威表示,没有什么政策是适用于一切问题的。For some time, Nomura has been among the most bearish of the big investment houses when it comes to China. And it has made some gutsy calls, although they haven#39;t always turned out to be right. In early April, for instance, Nomura forecast that China#39;s current account--the widest measure of trade--would be in the red in the first quarter of 2014. When the numbers came in recently, China still had a current account surplus, though at billion, it was the smallest quarterly surplus in three years. 一段时间以内,野村都是最为看空中国的投资之一。野村曾经做过一些大胆预测,不过这些预测并不总是正确的。举例来说,野村曾在4月初时预计,2014年第一季度中国经常项目将出现赤字。这一数据近期得到公布,数据显示中国仍然处于经常项目盈余状态,不过只有70亿美元,为三年来最小的季度盈余规模。So it remains to be seen whether Nomura this time will be Paul Revere warning of trouble ahead or Chicken Little, warning of trouble that never seems to occur. 所以野村这次能否预测成功还有待时间考验。Nomura bases a lot of its argument on the observation that that property investment turned negative in four of China#39;s 26 provinces in the first quarter of 2014, and in two of them, Heilongjiang and Jilin, the fall was greater than 25%. To Nomura, that#39;s a warning sign of similar problems to come in other Chinese provinces. 野村的观点很大程度上基于观察。野村观察到,在2014年第一季度,中国26个省份中有四个省份的房地产投资是负值,其中即黑龙江和吉林的降幅超过了25%。对于野村来说,这是一个令人警惕的信号,类似的问题可能出现在中国其他省份。Falling investment leads to falling levels of construction and sales. And given the property market#39;s huge role in the Chinese economy, declining growth in the property sector means declining growth in GDP.投资下降导致房地产开工和销售水平滑坡。考虑到房地产市场对中国经济的巨大影响,房地产行业增速放慢就意味着GDP增速放缓。In one regard, Nomura may be conservative. It estimates that real estate and related industries, such as steel and cement, account for 16% of China#39;s GDP. Other economists put the figure at around 25%. 从一方面来看,野村可能是保守的。该行估计,房地产及钢材和水泥等相关产业占中国GDP的比重为16%。其他经济学家给出的比重则为25%左右。Shortly after Nomura released its report, UBS came in with its own real-estate assessment, which was also a downer, but less so. The #39;government still has the means and willingness to mitigate a property downturn,#39; UBS said. Those policies include increasing infrastructure investment and relaxing property policies. Even so, UBS downgraded its 2014 forecast to 7.3% from 7.5% and its 2015 forecast to 6.8% from 7% to reflect its worries about the property sector.野村公布报告后不久,瑞银(UBS)也公布了自己的房地产评估报告。这份报告也看空楼市,但看空程度不及野村。瑞银说,政府仍有意愿和办法来减轻房地产滑坡的影响。这些政策包括扩大基建投资和放宽房地产政策。尽管如此,瑞银仍将2014年GDP增速预期从7.5%下调至7.3%,将2015年GDP增速预期从7%下调至6.8%,以便体现该行对中国房地产行业的担忧。Certainly, the news in the real-estate sector hasn#39;t been good this year--although a number of analysts still expect China to make the government#39;s GDP target of 7.5% growth. 尽管一些分析师仍预计今年中国将完成政府所设GDP增长7.5%的目标,但毫无疑问的是,今年房地产行业的消息一直不太好。Private data provider China Real Estate Index System said property sales by volume in the 44 cities they track fell 9% in April from the prior month and 19% compared with a year earlier. Average home prices, meanwhile, rose 0.1% in April from March and 9.1% from a year earlier. The sequential gains were the lowest since mid-2012, when the housing market turned around after the last downturn. This price index started only in 2010. 私营数据提供商中国房地产指数系统(China Real Estate Index System)公布,4月份该系统监测的44个主要城市房产累计成交面积环比下降9%,同比下降19%。该系统还公布,4月份全国100个城市(新建)住宅平均价格环比上涨0.1%,同比上涨9.1%,环比涨幅创2012年年中房价止跌以来的最低水平。中国房地产指数系统仅从2010年才开始发布“百城价格指数”。The government has lousy policy choices, Nomura argues. Continue with minimal stimulus and GDP growth could fall below 6% this year. On the plus side, developers wouldn#39;t add much to China#39;s long-term housing and debt problems. 野村认为,政府的政策选择极为有限。如果继续执行微刺激措施,那么今年的GDP增速可能会降至6%以下。有利的一面是,开发商不会加剧中国长期存在的住房和债务问题。Alternatively, ramp up monetary and fiscal policy by, say, cutting by 0.5% the reserves that banks hold in the central bank and by turbo-charging government spending, and the government could achieve 7.4% growth this year, Nomura estimates. 另外一种选择是,加大货币和财政政策的力度,比如,将存款准备金率下调0.5个百分点,同时大规模增加政府出。野村预测,这样做政府可能会将今年的经济增长率提高至7.4%。But taking that route would only worsen China#39;s housing glut and delay the downturn by a year, the investment firm argues. In 2015, Nomura estimates, GDP would slow to 6.8%. While delaying problems for a year could give leaders more time to put in place reforms that could help China over the long term, Nomura also says China would have a one-in-three chance of GDP growth falling even faster by the end of 2015 and starting a #39;hard landing,#39; which it defines as four consecutive quarters of GDP growth below 5%.但野村认为,采取这样的方式只会令中国住房供应过剩的状况恶化,把经济下滑的时间推迟一年而已。野村预计,到2015年中国的GDP增速将降至6.8%。虽然把问题推后一年可以让领导人有更多时间落实那些能够在长期内对中国经济有利的改革措施,不过野村也认为,到2015年年底,中国的GDP增幅加速下降并开始出现“硬着陆”的可能性为三分之一;根据野村的定义,经济“硬着陆”指的是GDP增幅连续四个季度低于5%。Damned if you do and damned if you don#39;t. 真是左右为难。It#39;s possible China could get some unexpected good news that lifts the economy. The downturn in the housing market could turn out to be more gradual than Nomura expects or the global economy could turn around and give a big boost to exports. But Mr. Zhang isn#39;t putting his bet on either. #39;There isn#39;t a panacea,#39; he says. 也可能会出现一些意想不到的好消息提振中国经济。比如住房市场的下滑步伐或许比野村预计的要更为平缓,或者是全球经济好转并极大地促进中国出口。不过张智威并不押注这两种可能性。他说,世上没有灵丹妙药。 /201405/294623福州晋安区人流医院排名 Exports, or a nascent middle class? One is the age-old path to prosperity in Asia; the other has produced stunning returns in the past five years. But a look at the diverging performances of Taiwan and Thailand – exponents of the former and latter approaches respectively – suggests a return to the former is under way.发展出口,还是培养新兴的中产阶级?前者是亚洲奉行已久的繁荣之路,后者则在过去五年中产生了惊人的回报。但考察分别作为两种发展模式典型的台湾和泰国,两者不同的经济表现说明,前一种发展模式即将收获回报。It is not always easy to say which came first: the money, or the investing theme. Cheap US funds in search of higher returns certainly found an easy home in southeast Asia, notably Thailand, where the credit the dollars provided lifted growth and helped fuel a consumer boom (and worrying levels of household debt). Backing Thailand’s benchmark SET index five years ago has produced a total return of about 270 per cent. Over that same time, Taiwan’s TWSE has offered just a quarter of that. Yet emerging Asia gets about two-fifths of its economic growth from exports – a higher proportion than emerging Europe (a third) or Latin America (a fifth). And since the Federal Reserve introduced the concept of tapering in May, Taiwan and its export rival South Korea are up almost a tenth respectively while Bangkok and Jakarta, another easy money success story, are off as much as 7 per cent.资金和投资主题哪个率先到来并不总是那么容易能说清楚。寻求更高回报率的廉价美国资金无疑在东南亚(尤其是泰国)找到了安乐窝;美元提供的信贷资金促进了泰国的经济增长,并激起了一轮消费热潮,当然同时也使泰国家庭负债达到了令人担忧的水平。如果五年前买入泰国基准股指SET指数,那么目前的总收益率将达到约270%。同期台湾股市收益率仅为泰国的四分之一。但亚洲新兴经济体约有五分之二的经济增长来自出口——该比例高于欧洲新兴经济体(三分之一)和拉美国家(五分之一)。自美联储(Fed)今年5月暗示缩减量化宽松规模以来,台湾及其出口竞争对手韩国的股市分别上涨了近10%,而泰国和印度尼西亚股市则下跌了7%。印度尼西亚也是一个依靠廉价资金实现经济发展的国家。Betting on north Asia’s exporters over consumers in the southeast suggests strong investor faith in the Fed’s ability to smoothly withdraw its cheap money without stunting a pick-up in the global economy. Generally, economic growth of about 7 per cent in Asia implies earnings will rise about a tenth in the next year, according to Nomura, which expects the region to grow 7.2 per cent. Thailand and Indonesia would of course also benefit from this. But there is only room for so many successful strategies. The shift in the past few months suggests markets have moved on to the next chapter in the Asian story.投资者更愿意押注于北亚的出口商而不是东南亚的消费者,这表明,投资者强烈相信美联储将会在不影响全球经济复苏的情况下平稳回收廉价资金。野村(Nomura)指出,总的来说,亚洲约7%的经济增长率意味着明年亚洲企业的盈利将增长约十分之一。野村预计明年亚洲地区的经济增长率将达到7.2%。泰国和印度尼西亚当然也将从中受益。但面对如此之多的成功策略,市场空间却是有限的。过去几个月的形势变化表明,市场已经进入了亚洲故事的下一个章节。 /201312/270847福州博爱中医院检查不孕不育收费贵吗

福州取节育环哪里最好 JEREMY GRANTHAM#39;S GOT A TRACK RECORD that#39;s impossible to ignore--he called the Internet bubble, then the housing bubble. While moves like those have earned the famed forecaster the nickname #39;perma-bear, #39; in early 2009 he also told clients at GMO, his 0 billion, Boston-based money-management firm, to jump back into the market. It was the same week that stocks hit their post-Lehman low.杰里米·格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)拥有不容小觑的从业纪录─他成功地预言了互联网泡沫,接着又成功地预言了房地产泡沫。虽说这样的纪录为这位著名的预测大师赢得了“永远的熊市论者”(perma-bear)的绰号,他也曾在2009年初告诉GMO资产管理公司的客户杀回市场。就在那一周,股市正好创下了雷曼公司(Lehman)倒闭后的历史低位。GMO资产管理公司的总部位于波士顿,管理的资产总额为1,000亿美元。Now, however, the outspoken Yorkshireman, who is chief investment strategist at GMO, is making headlines with a new prediction: Dire, Malthusian warnings about environmental catastrophe. To hear him tell it, the world is running out of food. Resources will only keep getting more expensive. And climate change looms over it all. Indeed, at times he sounds like someone Greenpeace would send door-to-door with a clipboard. (He#39;s not above likening the coal-industry spin to the handiwork of Goebbels.) If it were anyone else, Wall Street would probably laugh him off. But because it#39;s Jeremy Grantham, they just might listen.不过现在这位坦率直言的约克郡人、GMO的首席投资策略师,再次用最新的预测抓住了媒体的眼球:他发出马尔萨斯式的悲惨警告,称可能出现环境大灾难。他的观点主要是:世界的食品供应即将告罄;资源的价格只会越变越贵;气候变化迫在眉睫。的确,格兰瑟姆有时候听起来像极了绿色和平组织派出去的拿着材料挨家挨户宣传的工作人员。(他未能免俗地将煤炭业的宣传比作是戈培尔的造势之作)。如果换成别人,华尔街很可能对此一笑置之。但因为他是杰里米·格兰瑟姆,华尔街很可能就会变得洗耳恭听。Q: You#39;ve been ringing alarm bells about commodity prices. Why all the worry?问:对于大宗商品的价格,你一直都在敲响警钟。你为什么会产生这种担忧?A: They came down for a hundred years by an average of 70 percent, and then starting around 2002, they shot up and basically everything tripled--and I mean, everything. I think tobacco was the only one that went down. They#39;ve given back a hundred years of price decline and they gave it back between #39;02 and #39;08, in six years. The game has changed. I suspect the game changed because of the ridiculous growth rates in China--such a large country, with 1.3 billion people using 45 percent of the coal used in the world, 50 percent of all the cement and 40 percent of all the copper. I mean these are numbers that you can#39;t keep on rolling along without expecting something to go tilt.答: 大宗商品的价格在一百年内平均下降了70%,而在2002年前后,大宗商品的价格却出现了井喷式的增长,基本上每种大宗商品的价格都涨到了原来的三倍──我的意思是,几乎没有例外。我认为烟草是唯一价格下降的大宗商品。大宗商品将一百年跌去的价格都涨回来了,而且是在02年至08年的六年间就涨回来了。游戏规则已经改变了。我猜测,游戏改变的原因是中国奇高的增长率──中国是如此庞大的国家,13亿人口消费了全球45%的煤炭、50%的水泥和40%的铜。我的意思是,这些数据不可能持续下去而不导致一些事情失控。Q: This led to some surprising conclusions, like your concerns about natural resources most of us have barely heard of.问:这会令人得出一些意想不到的结论,比如你对于自然资源的担忧。而大多数人还没有听说过这些担忧。A: We went through one by one, and we decided the most important, the most valuable and the most critical was phosphate or phosphorous. Phosphorous cannot be made, only placed. It is necessary for all living things. And we are mining it, and it#39;s depleting. And I like to say, if that doesn#39;t give you goosebumps, then you#39;re tougher than me. That is a terrible equation. So I went to the professors, and I said, what#39;s going to happen, and they said, #39;Oh, there#39;s plenty of phosphorous.#39; But what#39;s going to happen when it runs out? #39;Oh, there is plenty.#39; It#39;s a really weak argument. We do have a lot, but 85 percent of the low-cost, high-quality phosphorous is in Morocco...and belongs to the King of Morocco. I mean, this is an odd situation. Much, much more constrained than oil in the Middle East ever was--and much more important in the end. And the rest of the world has maybe 50 years of reserve if we don#39;t grow too fast.答: 我们对资源逐一进行了研究,我们认为最重要、最有意义以及最严峻的问题是磷酸盐或磷的问题。磷不能经由人工生产,只能自然存储。对于所有的生物来讲,磷都不可或缺。随着我们对磷的开采,这种原材料正在逐渐枯竭。我想说的是,如果这都不能令你感到恐惧的话,那你可比我坚强。这是一个可怕的等式(开采多少,储量就减少多少)。所以,我去向教授们讨教,问他们未来将会怎样。他们说:“哦!磷矿的储量非常丰富。”但是,当磷矿枯竭后又会怎么样呢?“哦,它的储量非常丰富。”这是一个相当无力的论据。我们的确拥有大量磷矿,但是85%开采成本低廉、品质较高的磷矿都位于洛哥……并归洛哥国王所有。我的意思是,这是一种微妙的状况。相较于历史上原油在中东最集中的程度,磷矿的集中程度要高得多;并且从长远来说,磷矿的重要性也高得多。如果实施有节制开采的话,全球其他地区的磷矿储备或许可以再撑50年。Q: What are investors supposed to do?问:投资者应该怎样做呢?A: The investment implications are, of course, own stock in the ground, own great resources, reserves of phosphorous, potash, oil, copper, tin, zinc--you name it. I#39;d be less enthusiastic about aluminum and iron ore just because there is so much. And I wouldn#39;t own coal, and I wouldn#39;t own tar sands. It#39;s hugely expensive to build coal utilities, and the plants they have to build for tar sands are massive, and before they get their money back I suspect that the price of solar and wind will have come down so much.答: 这对投资的潜在启示就是:要拥有地下储藏的东西,拥有重要的资源,不论是磷、钾、原油、铜、锡还是锌─还可以继续数下去。我对铝和铁矿石没有那么高的热情,就因为这两种矿产储备太丰富了。我也不会持有煤炭和含油砂。建造采煤设施非常昂贵,开采含油砂需要建设的设施也规模庞大。我怀疑远在投资方收回成本前,太阳能和风能的价格就已然大幅回落。So I wouldn#39;t use that, but I think oil, the metals and particularly the fertilizers, I would own--and the most important of all is food. The pressures on food are worse than anything else, and therefore, what is the solution? Very good farming, which can be done. The emphasis from an investor#39;s point of view is on very good farmland. It#39;s had a big run. You can never afford to ignore price and value, but from time to time you can get good investments in farmland, and if you#39;re prepared to go abroad, you can do it today. I wouldn#39;t be too risky. I would stay with distinctly stable countries--Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay, Brazil, Canada, of course, and the U.S. But I would look around, in what I call the nooks and crannies. And forestry is the same. Forestry is not a bad bargain, a little overpriced maybe, but it#39;s in a world where everything is overpriced today, once again, courtesy of incredibly low interest rates that push people into investing. A wicked plot of the Federal Reserve.所以我不会投资煤炭和含油砂,但是我会投资于原油、金属,特别是肥料─以及比所有这些都重要的粮食。当前,粮食压力比其它各方面的压力都大。那么,解决方案是什么呢?是精耕细作,而这完全可以实现。从投资者的角度来看,重点在于优质的耕地。耕地价格已经涨了很多。你当然不能忽视价格和价值,但是你可以不时地找到不错的耕地投资机会。如果你已经准备好了投资海外市场的话,那么你今天就可以出手了。我本人不愿冒太大风险。我会选择那些非常稳定的国家─比如澳大利亚、新西兰、乌拉圭、巴西、加拿大,当然还有美国。但是,我也会考虑一下那些称作“被遗忘角落”的国家。林业也是如此。林业投资不是会让你吃亏的生意,或许它的价格有点虚高,但是别忘了,我们正处于一个几乎每件东西都价格虚高的世界。不得不说,这都是不可思议的低利率所赐。这是美国联邦储备委员会不道德的伎俩。Q: Why is this problem so hard for us to deal with? You#39;ve railed against short-termism.问:为什么这个问题让我们如此难以应对?你一直抨击短期行为。A: A career politician has a very short horizon. They#39;re not really interested in problems that go out five or 10 years. Secondly, you have what they call the discount-rate effect, which is a dollar in 10 years has a much lower value to a corporation than a dollar today. So they#39;re only interested, at the corporate level, in the short term. And politicians, in the very short term. And you have a vested-interest effect. In other words, it#39;s very hard to get change when the people who are benefitting very nicely, thank you, from the current situation don#39;t want it. If the oil industry is making a bundle, which they are, they don#39;t want to change to a system that recognizes climate change and the need to have a tax on carbon. And they can fund right-wing think tanks, and they do.答: 职业政客的眼界是非常短浅的。他们并不真正关心那些五年或十年之后会出现的问题。第二,还有一个贴现率效应的问题,也就是说,对企业来说,十年之后1美元的价值要远低于今天的1美元。所以,从企业层面上讲,他们最关注短期效应。而政治家关心的是更短时期内的效应。此外,还有既得利益效应。换句话说,当从现状中获益匪浅的人不想改变现状的时候,改变就变得非常困难。如果石油行业正赚得盆满钵满───事实也是如此──他们就不想改变现状去建立一个关注气候变化及征收碳排放税的系统。他们可能资助右翼智库,事实上,他们也是这样做的。So you have vested interests fighting like mad to keep the situation the way it is. And that#39;s always the case. So change is difficult, and with our politicians with the short-term election problems, it#39;s nearly impossible. And when they depend so much on campaign contributions, and they find the campaign contributions come so much from the vested interests, the financial world, but more particularly the energy world, it#39;s a bloody miracle anything gets done.所以既得利益获得者会奋不顾身地保持现状。这是亘古不变的真理。因此,改变是困难的,再加上我们的政治家面临短期竞选的问题,改变几乎是不可能完成的任务。政治家对竞选献金极度依赖,而且他们发现竞选献金大多来自金融界等既得利益集团,特别是能源行业,在这种情况下,就会出现血淋淋的奇迹:什么事情都可以做。Q: And that long-term perspective is important, not only to changing society, but also to investing. As an investor, you#39;re known for that.问:长期展望非常重要,不仅对社会的改变是如此,对投资来讲也一样。作为一名投资人,您的眼光已经是众所周知。A: I like to get what I consider the central idea, which in the stock market is patience and value and mean reversion. And in society, it is resources and climate damage. That#39;s plenty to go on, and that#39;s a pretty strong focus. We have a shockingly short horizon in the stock market, as witnessed in the Internet bubble. And we have a shockingly short horizon about social problems, where all we want to hear is how rapid the growth will be and how good everything is.答: 我想指出我觉得是最核心的关注点,在股市中那就是耐心、价值和均值回归,在社会范畴中则是资源和气候灾害。需要做的还有很多,而这些则是重中之重。在股市中,人们关注的时间周期短暂得令人震惊,这在互联网泡沫中就可见一斑。人们对社会问题关注的时间周期也同样短得令人震惊,大家希望听到的无非是增长速度将有多快,以及万事都是多么地遂愿。Q: How about a stock forecast. You called the market#39;s initial 2009 rally, but by 2010 you were predicting #39;seven lean years.#39; So far, however, the market#39;s soared.问:您对股市作何展望?您成功地预测了股市在2009年初的涨势,但是到了2010年,您又预测股市将出现“七年不景气”。然而,到目前为止,股市却一再走高。A: And it can go a lot higher than this with the Fed pushing it. And we can have another real bubble. Based on the Fed#39;s history, that seems to be what they like. You know we had one in 2000 with Greenspan, and then we had a housing bubble and a financial bubble with Bernanke and Greenspan. And it looks like Bernanke is perfectly happy to keep the rates down and watch as stock prices rise. They do that because as the rising stock prices give you a little consumer kick, you feel richer--and then, when you least need it, the whole thing bites you, and the prices go back to fair price or lower, like they did in #39;09, and the consumer reacts, and you have a recession and a bad stock market. But they#39;ve had two of these, and they seem bound and determined to do it a third time. As I#39;ve said, it#39;s a workable definition of madness to keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.答: 在美联储的推动下,股指可能还会冲得更高。我们可能将迎来另一个真正的泡沫。基于美联储的历史,泡沫似乎是美联储愿意看到的景象。大家知道,我们在2000年格林斯潘掌舵时经历过一次泡沫;托贝南克(Bernanke)和格林斯潘的福,我们随后又迎来了房地产泡沫和金融泡沫。看起来,贝南克现在非常乐于将利率维持在低位并坐视股票价格飙升。他们这样做的原因是,股票价格走高给你带来些许消费的刺激,让你感觉自己更富有了。接着,当你最不希望事情发生变化时,整个形势突然间变得对你不利了,股票价格回归至均值甚至更低的水平,正像股市09年的情形一样。消费者作出反应,于是就出现了衰退和熊市。但是,尽管我们已经遭遇了两次泡沫,美联储似乎决心迎接第三次泡沫。就像我说的,这种希望种豆得瓜的做法符合“疯狂”的定义。Q: Like many Englishmen, you seem to regard Americans as wildly, fool-heartedly optimistic.问:与许多英国人一样,您似乎认为美国人是过于盲目乐观的。A: America is a very, very optimistic-biased society, as I believe, incidentally, Australia is, for whatever that means. We#39;re the two great optimistic societies. You can have a conversation about a housing bubble in England, and they#39;ll say, #39;oh, is that right? Let me see the data.#39; If you have one in Australia, you have World War III! They hate you. They hate you for years! [laughs] The idea that you could suggest that they were having a housing bubble. [laughs]答: 美国是一个非常、非常具有乐观倾向的社会;顺便提一下,我认为澳大利亚也是如此。美国和澳大利亚是两大乐观主义国家。当你在英国谈及房地产泡沫问题时,英国人会说:“哦?真的吗?让我看看数据。”当你在澳大利亚提出同样的问题时,第三次世界大战便会由此爆发。他们将对你恨之入骨。并且在几年之内都不会原谅你[笑]。只是因为你暗示他们可能正面临房地产泡沫。[笑]Q: So the stereotypes about us are true?问:所以这个关于美国人的固有印象是真的?A: Absolutely. Now, it#39;s been very useful in enterprise, in venture capital...in start-ups. We have more failures here than probably every developed country added together, but in consequence, when the smoke clears, we tend to end up with the Amazons and the Googles. It#39;s not an accident. We just throw more darts at the dartboard. The Germans are very conservative about throwing darts. We have an admirable risk-taking attitude, and we#39;re very tolerant of failure.答: 千真万确。乐观对企业、风险资本以及初创企业一直都非常有帮助。在美国,失败的案例可能比其它所有发达国家加起来还要多,但是结果是,当尘埃落定之时,亚马逊(Amazon)和谷歌(Google)这样的企业却应运而生。这不是一种偶然现象。我们只是向圆靶投出了更多飞镖而已。德国人对于投掷飞镖非常保守。我们则拥有令人敬佩的冒险精神,和对失败极高的容忍度。Q: We benefit from it?问:这点对美国人有益吗?A: Absolutely, but the downside is you#39;re willing to throw darts because you think you#39;re going to win. American entrepreneurs all know they#39;re going to win. Only 10 percent survive, but they all think they#39;re going to win.答: 绝对有益,不过也有不足之处,那就是你是认为自己会成功才愿意投掷飞镖的。美国企业家都认为自己会成功。虽然只有10%的企业能够生存下来,但所有企业家都会认为自己会取得成功。 /201310/262662三明市去那家医院结扎复通龙岩人民医院输卵管造影



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