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明星资讯腾讯娱乐2020年02月24日 10:36:02
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Some of the country’s most famous investors, including Warren Buffett and John Bogle, have started to make the case that it’s time to dive back into the stock market.They are usually careful to add that they don’t know what stocks will do in the short term. Yet their basic message is clear enough: stocks are now cheap, irrational fears have been driving the market down lately, and people who buy today will be glad that they did.After a day like Tuesday, when the market rose 11 percent, it’s easy to see the merits of the argument.But there is another argument that deserves more attention than it has gotten so far. It’s the bearish argument that is based neither on fears that the country may be sliding into another depression nor on gut-level worries about the unknown. It is based on numbers and history, and it has at least as much claim on reason as the bullish argument does.It goes something like this: Stocks are truly cheap only relative to their values over the last 20 years, a period that will go down as one of the great bubbles in history. If you take a longer view, you see that the ratio of stock prices to corporate earnings is only slightly below its long-term average. And in past economic crises — during the 1930s and 1970s — stocks fell well below their long-run average before they turned around.To make matters worse, corporate earnings have now started to plunge, too. Assuming that they keep dropping, stocks would also need to fall to keep the price-earnings ratio at its current level.As stocks were soaring on Tuesday afternoon, I called James Melcher to hear a dose of fact-based bearishness. Mr. Melcher is president of Balestra Capital, a hedge fund in New York, who wrote an essay for his clients two years ago that predicted the broad outlines of the financial crisis (and then arranged Balestra’s portfolio accordingly). Like the bulls, he said that no one could know what the market would do in the short term. “But to think stocks are cheap now,” he added, “is not rational.”He went on: “In the last 20 years — and particularly in the last six or seven — you had the most massive creation of liquidity the world has ever known.” Consumers went ever deeper into debt, thanks to loose lending standards, and a shadow banking system, made up of hedge funds and investment banks, allowed Wall Street to do the same. All that debt lifted economic growth and stock returns.“It was a nice party,” Mr. Melcher said. “The problem is that all the bills are coming due at the same time.” He thinks stocks could easily fall an additional 20 percent and maybe 35 percent before hitting bottom.So who’s right — the bears or the bulls? The smartest people in both camps, like Mr. Melcher, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Bogle, have a healthy dose of humility about their own conclusions. And when you dig into their arguments, you find that they’re not quite as different as they first sound. But they are different, and it’s worth taking a minute to consider the numbers.There are any number of ways to measure the valuation of the stock market. Some examine prices relative to earnings, others are based on cash flow, a company’s underlying assets or the total value of the market. But they tell a pretty consistent story right now. Stocks, which were fabulously expensive for much of the 1990s and this decade, no longer are.My favorite measure is the one recommended by Benjamin Graham and David L. Dodd, in their classic 1934 textbook, “Security Analysis.” They urged investors to use a price-to-earnings ratio — stock prices divided by average annual corporate earnings — based on at least five years of earnings and, ideally, closer to 10. Corporate profits may rise or fall in any given year, but a share of stock is a claim on a company’s long-term earnings and should be evaluated as such.(Why not use a forecast of future earnings? Because they tend toward the fictional, as we’re now seeing once again.)The 10-year price-to-earnings ratio tells an incredibly consistent story over the last century. It has averaged about 16 over that time. There have been long periods when it stayed above 16 and even shot above 20, like the 1920s, 1960s and recent years. As recently as last October, when other measures suggested the market was reasonably valued, the Graham-Dodd version of the ratio was a disturbing 27. But periods in which the ratio has jumped above 20 have always been followed by steep declines and at least a decade of poor returns.By 1932, the ratio had fallen to 6. In 1982, it was only 7. Then, of course, the market began to self-correct in the other direction, and stocks took off.After Tuesday’s big rally, the ratio was just a shade below 16, or almost equal to its long-run average. This is a little difficult to swallow, I realize. Stocks are down 40 percent since last October, and every experience from the last 25 years suggests they now have to bounce back.But that’s precisely the problem. Since the 1980s, stocks have always bounced back from a loss, usually reaching a high in relatively short order. As a result, the market became enormously overvalued.As Robert Shiller, the economist who specializes in bubbles, points out, human beings tend to put too much weight on recent experiences. We think the market snapbacks of 1987 and the current decade are more meaningful and more predictive than the long slumps of the 1930s, 1940s and 1970s. Of course, anyone who made the same assumption in 1930 or 1975 — this just has to turn around soon — would have had to wait years and years until the investment paid off.Now, Mr. Buffett, Mr. Bogle and their fellow bulls know all this history, and they’re still bullish. (Though I’d be more bullish, too, if I could get the favorable terms that Mr. Buffett did. In exchange for his money and his good name, Goldman Sachs and General Electric each guaranteed him an annual return of at least 10 percent.)So on Tuesday afternoon, I also called Mr. Bogle, the legendary founder of the Vanguard Group, the investment firm whose low-cost index funds have made a lot for a lot of people.He, too, prefers the 10-year price-to-earnings ratio, he said, but he didn’t think that it necessarily had to fall to the same bargain-basement levels it reached in the 1930s and 1970s.You can certainly see why that would be the case. Investors are well aware that the market fell to irrationally low levels during past crises, and they may not allow it to become so cheap this time around.Mr. Bogle also thinks that corporate profits will rebound nicely within a couple of years and likes the fact that interest rates are low. Low rates have often — though not always — accompanied bull markets.But it was his last argument that I think is the main one for most investors to focus on. “I’m not looking for a great bull market,” he said. There are some reasons to be optimistic about stocks, he said, “and I also look at the alternative.”And, really, how attractive are the alternatives? Savings accounts and money market funds will struggle to keep pace with inflation. Bonds may, as well.Stocks, on the other hand, are paying an average dividend of about 3 percent, which is better than the interest on many savings accounts, and stocks are also almost certain to rise over the next couple of decades.If that is your time frame — decades, rather than months or years — this will probably turn out to be a perfectly good buying opportunity. In the shorter term, though, it’s a much tougher call, and it involves a lot more risk. 一些著名的投资家,包括沃伦.巴菲特,约翰.格,公开表示,现在是返回股票市场买股票的时候了.虽然他们一如往常,小心翼翼的声明,他们并不能预知股票的短期走势.然而,他们透露的基本信息是明确的:股票价格现在很便宜,非理性的恐惧导致了近期市场走低,那些现在买入股票的人必将在今后得意于他们的选择.本周二股市大涨11%,使上述观点轻易找到了论据.但另外一种观点较之以前更值得注意.这就是依然看空市场.观点不是简单建立在国家经济将滑向另一场衰退的恐惧的情感上,也不是源自于对未知的极度担忧.看空的观点同样建立在数据与历史的分析基础上,至少,它的论据并不比看多观点的少.看空者的部分看法如下:历史上看,一个巨大的经济泡沫的破裂后,需要经历20年的经济低迷期.以过去20年的数据看,股票价格确实比较便宜.但如果你在更长的历史周期上观察,你发现股价相对于公司赢利的比率只是略低于长期平均水平.回顾过去的经济危机----比如说发生于上世纪30年代和70年代的--- -那时的股价在反转前远远低于长期平均水平.情况更糟的是,公司赢利水平开始恶化,如果假设赢利持续减少,股价也必须降低以维持当前的市盈率数值.就在周二股市暴涨的时候,我致电James Melcher ,却听到了大堆有事实根据的看空理由.Melcher 先生是纽约的一家对冲基金,Balestra资本的主席,他曾经在2年前发文给他的客户,预测出金融危机可能情形(随后他又以此预测调整了Balestra的投资组合).如鼓励买股票的那些投资大家一样,他也认为没人能预测股市的短期走向.但他补充道:"现在认为股价很便宜是不明智的."James Melcher 说道:"在过去20年中----尤其是过去6,7年----我们面临流动性泛滥,消费者大量举债,宽松的借贷标准,体系中不良机制,避险基金与投资的兴起,使华尔街大大提高了负债杠杆.负债刺激了经济,提高了股票回报.""这是好的一面,"James Melcher 说,"问题在于所有的债务可能在同一时间到期."他认为股价很可能再跌20%,并且在见底前比现在下降35%.看多与看空,谁是对的? Melcher ,Bogle,还有巴菲特,都是业界中的智者,他们的结论都经过认真的分析.当你深入他们的讨论,你会发现他们之间的分析并无太多的不同.然而却提出相反的观点.这就需要我们花点时间来研究一下历史数据了.给股票估值有很多方法.有人用价格与盈利指标,有人用现金流折现,还有人考虑公司隐藏或低估的资产,或是公司市值.但现在使用那些方法只能如以前一样描述动人的故事.股价再不可能象上世纪九十年代与最近十年所经历的一样,不切实际的高高在上.我个人喜好的一个衡量指标是,本杰明.格雷翰姆和戴维.多德在他们经典的1934年出版的教材lt;lt;券分析gt;gt;里介绍的市盈率- ---股票价格除以过去5年的公司盈利平均值,计算的市盈率如果接近10,则是比较合理的.公司的利润水平在某些年份可能升也可能降,但股权是对公司长期盈利的分配要求,因此应该以平均的盈利水平来评估股价高低与否.(为什么不用预测的盈利数据计算市盈率?因为我们发现,那将可能导致数字的编造游戏)以10年为周期的市盈率难以置信的揭示了一个世纪来的股市长期走势.在上世纪,市盈率的平均值是16,但有很长一段时间数值超过了16,甚至短时间内还大于20,如在上世纪的20年代,60年代和最近几年.就在去年10月,其他指标还显示股市还处于合理估值状态,格雷翰姆--多德指标却达到了令人不安的 27.如果一段时间内,市盈率超过20,伴随而来的情况是股市急剧回调,同时,至少在以后的10年内,投资回报都很差.长期市盈率在1932年回落到6,1982年达到7,这之后,股市开始自我修正,股价反转拉升.就在本周二的暴涨后,市盈率率低于长期均值16.这有点难以相信.股市从去年10月算起,已经下跌了40%,25年以来的经验也提示应该发生反弹了.但问题在于.自1980年以来,股价经常在略微下跌后就开始反弹,短期下跌后又创下新高,于是,整个市场已经严重高估了.就如专门研究泡沫经济的经济学家罗伯特.席勒所言,人类更倾向于依据近期的经验来做决策.于是我们很容易预测股市就如1987年或最近的10年中发生的一样,很快就发生反弹,而不是类似二十世纪30,40,70年代经历漫长的低迷.当然,那些在1930年或1975年里认为股市即将转好的人,不得不等待很长的时间才让投资回本.巴菲特与格先生与其他唱多者都了解券历史,但是他们还是看好后市.(如果我有巴菲特那样的优惠的交易条件,我也许比他们更愿意唱多市场.在高盛与通用电器的交易中,为了获得资金与巴菲特个人良好的声誉,两家公司都承诺每年给巴菲特至少10%的回报.)于是我在周二下午电话询问富有传奇色的先锋集团的创始人格先生.先锋集团是一家投资公司,它掌管的低成本指数基金曾为很多人赚取大量财富.格先生说,他同样偏好于10年期的市盈率估值,但他不认为,指标要回到1930年或1970年的低值水平才开始购买股票.你肯定能理解为何有这样的结论.投资者都充分意识到在以前的金融危机中市场曾跌到非理性的低价水平,于是在这次危机中他们可能不会让类似的低价再次出现.格先生同时认为,企业盈利水平在今后几年中很快得到恢复,他还注意到当前的利率水平很低.低利率经常伴随着牛市的出现----尽管不一定每次都是如此.另外,要考虑其他的投资选择是否真正具有吸引力?储蓄,货币基金,以及债券,都必须要考虑抵消通涨的影响.而投资股票,平均能获得大约3%的股息率,超过了储蓄存款利率.而且就以后的几十年来说,股价的增长几乎是确定的.如果你的投资期限放长到十年几十年,而不是几个月或几年,那么,现在可能是极好的买入机会.然而就短期而言,现在选择买入,结果可能很糟糕,同时还面临更大的投资风险. /200811/55020

I love you because you bring the best out of me.我爱你,因你让我展现出最美好的那部分。Everytime I look at you, my heart misses a beat.每次看着你,我的心都会漏跳一拍。You're the one who holds the key to my heart.你是那个开启我心灵的人。Love is, what you mean to me - and you mean everything.爱是,你在我心中的分量——而你,就是一切。Your love has helped me to rediscover myself.你的爱让我重新发现了我自己。Just being with you feels like I can defy the whole world.仅仅和你在你一起的感觉可以让我放弃全世界。Darling, you are my theme for a dream.亲爱的,你是我的梦中情人。(你是我梦的主题)You have taught me the true meaning of love.你教会了我爱的真谛。Grow old along with me, the best is yet to be.和我一起慢慢变老,这将是最好的事。Loving you makes the my ride of life worthwhile.爱你,让我的生命之旅有意义。 /200811/56951

The average Briton can make 10 meals from scratch without having to look at a recipe, a survey suggests。   调查显示,多数英国人不看菜谱就能直接烹制的佳肴共有十道  Spaghetti bolognese is the most popular dish, with 65% of people saying they know the recipe by heart。最受追捧的当属意大利肉酱面,65%的英国人表示这个菜谱已经烂熟于心了。  The traditional roast dinner comes in second place with 54% of people able to prepare it unaided。排在第二位的是英式传统烤菜,54%的人可以轻松烹制这道美味。The survey, commissioned by the UKTV Food channel to mark the returnof its Market Kitchen show, involved questioning 3,000 people。这项由UKTV食品频道委托进行的调查共走访询问了3,000多人,调查结果在该频道的“市场厨房”节目播出。The survey suggests the average cook is more comfortable preparing foreign dishes than British classics at home。调查发现,英国人居家做的多半是外国美食,而非本国佳肴。Chilli con carne is the third most popular dish for cooks toattempt, with 42% saying they can manage it without looking at acookbook or recipe online。香辣肉酱排在最受欢迎榜单的第三位,42%的英国人表示无需菜谱或上网查询就会做这道菜。Some 41% of cooks feel confident they can prepare the classic Italian dish lasagne。还有41%的人表示,自己能够信心十足地烹制意大利千层面。The research defined a recipe as a main course dish containing four or more ingredients。该项调查中的主菜指的是含有四种或四种以上配料的菜式。Matthew Fort, presenter of Market Kitchen, said: "The resultsprovide a good snapshot of what Brits are eating week in, week out,because if you cook something regularly enough you will remember therecipe."   “市场厨房”的节目主持人马修.福特说:“这项调查让我们了解到英国人平时常吃哪些菜。因为一道菜只有常做常吃,你才能记住菜谱。”  Those surveyed admitted they made an average of just four home-cooked meals per week。  调查显示,英国人平均每周只做四顿饭。  Only 16% of those aged under 25 cook every day compared with 45% of those aged 56 and over。  25岁以下的年轻人每天做饭的人数比例仅有16%;而56岁以上每天做饭的人数比例则高达45%。 /200912/90719

  Five Reasons Why Your Man is Cheating on YouLadies Some Reasons Why Your Man Is Cheating.Face it ladies alot of men love to cheat and we always want to know the reasons why they did what they did, but the truth is that the relationship might be lacking in one area or another. If you want to know some reasons why your man cheated on you just continue ing down below.1. Men Need Alot Of Spice- Men crave alot of spice in their life they need variety in all areas of their life. You see when a man’s sex life tends to become a repetitive routine they start to look for more spice in their sex life and that is one reason why men tend to cheat on their partners. You need to keep your man guessing or else they will start to wander which often leads to alot of heartache in the end.男人渴望自由:男人希望多姿多的变化不定的生活。当生活开始安定,一成不变的时候,他们开始寻找新的变化。 /200911/89612

  Many of us would like to have money in savings. Fankly speaking, a dollar spent now seems to provide a lot more pleasure than a dollar saved, how can you make sure you're motivated enough to put money aside on a regular basis?有积蓄是许多人的梦想。坦率地讲,花一块钱比存一块钱要爽多了,那么怎样才能保自己有足够的意志力把钱按期存起来呢?Here are five things that could work for you...下面是你可以考虑的五个办法……1. Save Little And Often 存小钱,常存钱Do you tell yourself that it's not worth saving if you don't have at least 100 (or 500, or 1000) to put into a savings account? This is a bit like telling yourself that it's not worth getting some exercise unless you have a whole day clear to jog.你是不是告诉自己,至少有100(500或1000)块钱才值得存入?这就有点像对自己说,只有拥有一整天的时间才值得去锻炼。How about saving just a dollar or two each day? Most of us can cut a couple of dollars of unnecessary spending every day (how about skipping that latte, carpooling, ditching your daily newspaper..?) It's a tiny amount that you'll barely notice on a daily basis, but over the course of a year, you'll have saved several hundred dollars.何不试试每天只存一两块钱呢?大多数人每天都能剩出几块钱来,(例如不喝咖啡,和别人合伙坐出租车,少买点报纸)你可能很容易就忽略这些小钱,但一年后,你就可以节省数百元钱。 /200907/76444。

  

  1.The Marriage Ceremony:婚仪式Introduction: “Please be seated”简短介绍:“请嘉宾入坐”。新人入场:Dearly beloved: we are met together in the sight of God and in the presence of these witnesses to join together亲爱的:我们在上帝的眼前相遇,并且在这些见人面前走到一起来。(groom) (新郎)XX(先生) And 和(bride) (新娘)XX(女士)In the bonds of holy matrimony according to the ordinance of God, and the custom of the Christian Church.按照上帝所设立的神圣婚姻,和基督教会的礼俗,一同来到这里。Let’s start with a word of prayer: (service and friends)让我们做个祷告:(侍人员及来宾们)Marriage is an honorable and holy estate instituted by God in the Graden of Eden, sanctioned and honored by Christ’s presence at the marriage in Cana of Galilee, and likened by St. Paul to the mystical union which exists between Christ and His Church. It was ordained of God as the foundation and bond of family life, for the mutual help and comfort of the husband and wife. It is a covenant, not a contract.婚姻是上帝在伊甸园中设立的一个有尊荣和圣洁的命令;在加利利海的迦南婚宴上,耶稣基督亲历确认和荣耀婚姻;圣徒保罗将其比作基督耶稣与他教会之间的隐秘关系。上帝命定婚姻是家庭生活延续的根基和纽带,丈夫和妻子之间要彼此安慰和相互劝勉。这是一个圣洁盟约,并非是一份互利的合同。Marriage is therefore not to be entered upon by any thoughtlessly, but thoughtfully, reverently, and in the fear of God.因此,婚姻不是随随便便就进入,而是在经过深思熟虑,更带着仰慕和敬畏上帝的心思走进来的。Into this holy estate these two persons come now to be joined. 进入这神圣的婚姻殿堂,现正他们二人将要彼此结合成为一家人。I charge you both, before God the searcher of all hearts, that having considered the holy covenant you are about to make, you do now declare before this company your pledge of faith and love towards each other. Be well assured that if these vows are kept as God’s Word demands, and you endeavor to do the will of your heavenly Father, God will bless your marriage, will grant you fulfillment in it, and will establish your home in peace 我现在请你们二位新人,在上帝面前省察你们的心思意念,是否已经为即将达成的圣洁盟约做了慎重的考虑,现正你们要在众人面前宣告你们彼此之间的真诚与爱心。要十分清楚,按照上帝在圣经中的教导,你们彼此之间要保守住誓言,并要竭力行出天父上帝的旨意。上帝会祝福你们的婚因,赐福你们婚姻圆满,并且平平安安的建立家室。Prayer(会众祷告)Scriptures:(引用经文)1 Cor. 13:4-7 Love is patient, love is kind. It does not envy, it does not boast, it is not proud. 5It is not rude, it is not self-seeking, it is not easily angered, it keeps no record of wrongs. 6Love does not delight in evil but rejoices with the truth. 7It always protects, always trusts, always hopes, always perseveres.【林前13:4】爱是恒久忍耐,又有恩慈。爱是不嫉妒。爱是不自夸。不张狂。【林前13:5】不作害羞的事。不求自己的益处。不轻易发怒。不计算人的恶。【林前13:6】 不喜欢不义。只喜欢真理。【林前13:7】 凡事包容。凡事相信。凡事盼望。凡事忍耐。Hebrews 13:4 4Marriage should be honored by all Ecclesiastes 4:9 Two are better than one, because they have a good return for their work:【来13:4】 婚姻,人人都当尊重… …【传4:9】两个人总比一个人好,因为二人劳碌同得美好的果效。Proverbs 18:22 He who finds a wife finds what is good and receives favor from the LORD 【箴18:22】得着贤妻的,是得着好处,也是蒙了耶和华的恩惠。Song of Sol.: 8:6-8 “Place me like a seal over your heart, for love is as strong as death…It burns like blazing fire, like a mighty flame. Many waters cannot quench love; rivers cannot wash it away. If one were to give all the wealth that he had for love, it would be utterly scorned.”【歌8:6】求你将我放在你心上如印记,带在你臂上如戳记。因为爱情如死之坚强。嫉恨如阴间之残忍。所发的电光,是火焰的电光,是耶和华的烈焰。【歌8:7】爱情众水不能息灭,大水也不能淹没。若有人拿家中所有的财宝要换爱情,就全被藐视。St. Paul said “Wives be subject to your own husbands, as to the Lord. For the husband is the head of the wife, as Christ also is the head of the church, He Himself being the Savior of the body. But as the church is subject to Christ, so also the wives ought to be to their husbands in everything. Husbands love your wives, just as Christ also loved the church and gave Himself up for her.” /200908/81744As the season of sneezing and grabbing tissues begins with the autumn's first frosts, medical researchers have found that "granny's nostrums" to fend off colds may be scientifically proven.Although apparently common sense, straightforward connections between chilling and viral infection have been hard to prove, according to the common cold centre at Cardiff University--the world's only centre dedicated to researching and testing new medicines for the treatment of flu and the common cold.But the latest experiment reinforces theories that existing, latent infection can be activated when parts of the body, particularly the feet and nose, get wet and cold.All participants took off their shoes and socks and temperatures were monitored throughout the experiment.Ninety volunteers who spent 20 minutes with their feet in bowls of iced water have provided evidence that failing to wrap up warmly is directly linked to falling prey to sore throats and a bunged-up nose.Claire Johnson and Ron Eccles found that 29% of the volunteers developed cold symptoms within five days."When colds are circulating, many people are mildly infected but show no symptoms," said Professor Eccles, whose findings are published in today's issue of Family Practice magazine."But if they become chilled, this causes a pronounced constriction of the blood vessels in the nose and shuts off the warm blood that supplies the white cells that fight infection. ""Although the chilled subject believes they have 'caught a cold', what has in fact happened is that the dormant infection has taken hold."But they also suggested that another explanation could be that our noses are colder in the winter. Prof Eccles said: "A cold nose may be one of the major factors that causes common colds to be seasonal.""When the cold weather comes we wrap ourselves up in winter coats to keep warm but our nose is directly exposed to the cold air. Cooling of the nose slows down clearance of viruses from the nose and slows down the white cells that fight infection."The researchers said:" Parents should feel confident in telling children to wrap themselves up in those nose-protecting garment this winter." /200812/58540

  一个外宾想上厕所,便对翻译说:“I wonder if I can go somewhere?”(我可以方便一下吗?)而翻译却把somewhere误解为“某处”,因而回答道“Yes, you can go anywhere in China.”(行,中国你哪儿都可以去。)外宾不禁愕然。可见,如不了解英语中“厕所”的一些表达法是会误事的。    1.Public lavatory意为“公厕”, 在公共场所,厕所门上都标有Gent’s(男厕),或Ladies’(女厕),有时也标有Men’s, Men’s room, Gentleman’s, Women’s Women’s room.如:Where is the Gent’s?(厕所在哪儿?)If you would like a wash, the Gentleman’s is just over there.(如果要上厕所,男厕就在那边。)    2.toilet是最常用的一个词。可指“公厕”,也可指“私厕”。例如:I wonder where the toilet is.(我想知道厕所在哪儿。)    3.lavatory是个客气的词,但不如toilet常用。   4.bathroom是书面语。   5.loo是一个口语词,在英国用得很普通,主要指私人住宅中的厕所。如:Excuse me, would you like to tell me where the loo is?(请问,厕所在哪儿?)    6.powder room是美语,女士常用。如:I would like to powder my nose.就表现了美国人的幽默。   7.wash room, washing room, westroom常用于美国英语。   8.W.C.是water closet的缩写,常用于英国英语,表示“有抽水没有设备的厕所”,有时也可用手势表示,即拇指和食指圈成圆,其他三指向上,模仿成英文W和C的形态。   9.John是俚语。如:Last night I went to visit John twice.(昨晚我去了趟厕所。)    10.go and see one’s aunt是俚语,常用于英国英语,表示“上厕所”“去大便”。 /201003/99152

  

  Teamwork. Consider about the advantages and disadvantages deeply before you cooperate with others.You can find a partner intentionally when you have certain capital.1、合作。不要随便与人合作,与人合作要考虑好利与弊。如果有想法尽快去干,一个人努力地干,卖命地干。干到差不了,有资本了,可以与人短期性的合作。与人合作目标要明确。 /201001/95356。

  康宝蓝(Con Panna, Espresso Con Panna), 意大利语中,Con是搅拌,Panna是生奶油,康宝蓝即意式浓缩咖啡加上鲜奶油。做法在意大利Espresso特浓咖啡中加入适量的鲜奶油,即轻松地完成一杯康宝蓝。嫩白的鲜奶油轻轻漂浮在深沉的咖啡上,宛若一朵出淤泥而不染的白莲花,令人不忍一口喝下。   另外,在意大利Espresso特浓咖啡中,若不加鲜奶油、牛奶,只加上两大勺绵密细软的奶泡就是一杯马琪雅朵。不象康宝蓝,要想享受马琪雅朵的美味,就要一口喝下。   另一种说法是,正宗的康宝蓝,要配一颗巧克力或太妃糖,先将巧克力或太妃糖含在嘴里,再喝咖啡,让美味一起在口中绽放。 /201108/149923

  Claim: The ritual of clinking glasses evolved from efforts to prove that the drinks contained therein were not poisoned.声称:碰杯的仪式起源于确认杯中有无毒药False错误Q: Why do people clink their glasses before drinking a toast?Q:为什么喝酒时要碰杯?A: It used to be common for someone to try to kill an enemy by offering him a poisoned drink. To prove to a guest that a drink was safe, it became customary for a guest to pour a small amount of his drink into the glass of the host. Both men would drink it simultaneously. When a guest trusted his host, he would then just touch or clink the host's glass with his own.A:过去常常有人认为在酒杯里放毒来谋杀敌人,为了实酒是安全的,宾客会把杯中一部分酒倒进主人杯中已成为一种习俗,然后主宾同时喝下去以明无毒。当宾客信认主人时,两人就只是碰一下杯子。Origins: Many explanations have been advanced to explain our custom of clinking glasses when participating in toasts. One is that early Europeans felt the sound helped to drive off evil spirits. Another holds that by clanking the glasses into one another, wine could be sloshed from glass to glass, thereby serving as a proof the beverages had not been poisoned. Yet another claim asserts that the "clink" served as a symbolic acknowledgment of trust among imbibers who did not feel the need to sample each others' drinks to prove them unadulterated.起源:喝酒碰杯的习俗有很多种解释。一种是早期欧洲人认为碰杯的声音可以驱逐恶灵。另一种解释坚持认为碰杯时双方各将自己的酒向对方的酒杯中倾注一些,从而明酒中无毒。然而还有另一种则认为:碰杯是一种象征性的相信酒是干净的,不需明有没有放毒。Each of those explanations is false. While making a racket for the purpose of scaring off evil spirits underpins other customs that carry over to this day (e.g., the tolling of church bells at weddings, and the loud shouts and noisemaking at the stroke of twelve on New Year's Eve), the "clink" is a relatively new aspect of toasting and, as such, came along well after folks had relinquished the notion that demons both lurked in every corner of typical day-to-day existence and could be sped on their way by a bit of noise. As for sloshing wine from one glass to another, drinking vessels would need to be filled to the brim to effect that, and if they were, such practice would waste valuable potables (because some would be sure to land on the floor) and likely douse the toasters too. And while the poisoning of enemies has long been part of the ordinary mayhem of the world, the practice of touching of one's filled glass to those of others when participating in a toast is unrelated to suspicion of the wine's having been tampered with; such killings were not so common at any nebulous point in the past that a signal to one's host indicating he was clear of suspicion of attempted murder needed to be enshrined in the canon of social gestures.以上那些观点都是错误的。虽然碰杯驱邪说法衍生出了很多习俗并沿用至今(例如婚礼上教堂的钟声、大声喊叫还有除夕夜正点的狂欢。),但碰杯是祝酒中相对较新的一环,是人们不再相信恶灵存在于我们生活中的每个角落这一观念之后才产生的。其实人们只是为了要一些热闹而已。至于碰杯使酒从一方流到另一方,那么酒器是需要盛满酒的,如果盛满了,那这样就会浪费昂贵的饮料(因为肯定会有酒洒到地上去)还有可能泼到食物上。虽然毒死敌人世界上以前的确被用过,但喝酒时把酒倒进另一个人的酒杯里,无端地猜疑无辜的人是不合理的。更何况在过去这种杀人方式并不常用,因为这意味着主人的社会地位会因涉嫌企图谋杀而发生动摇。To get at the real reason for the clink of glass on glass, we have to first look at why and how we toast, and where the practice originated.那么要找到喝酒碰杯的真正原因,我们首先应该了解的是我们为什么喝酒?怎么喝酒?并会在什么样的情况下碰杯?The custom of sealing with booze expressions of good wishes for the health of others dates back so far that its origins are now lost to us, yet in numerous cultures such acts of camaraderie often involved shared drinking vessels. The clinking of individual cups or glasses as a proof of trust wouldn't have meant much when everyone drank from the same bowl. Indeed, in those cultures where shared drinking containers was the norm, to produce one's own vessel in such company was to communicate an unmistakable message of hostility and distrust; it would have been regarded as akin to bringing along a food taster to sample the repast.我们很难找到喝酒狂欢表达良好祝愿如身体健康等的起源。然而在众多中,朋友之间的行为会经常涉及到祝酒,每个人从同一个碗里喝酒,那么碰杯就不再是信任彼此的明。实际上,在这样一种文化里,公用同一个酒器成为一种规则,单独用你自己的酒杯会带来敌对和不信任的误解信息,这将被认为同做餐后的食物品尝家的品尝行为来防毒相类似。"Toasting," our term for the pronouncement of benedictions followed by a swallowing of alcohol, is believed to have taken its name from a practice involving a shared drinking vessel. Floated in the "loving cup" passed among celebrants in Britain was a piece of (spiced) cooked b that the host would consume along with the last few drops of liquid after the cup had made one round of the company. In modern times toasting has become a matter of imbibing from individual drinking vessels rather than from one shared flagon, so to compensate for the sense of unity lost in doing away with the sharing of the same cup we have evolved the practice of simultaneously drinking each from our own glass when a toast is made, thereby maintaining a communal connection to the kind words being spoken.“干杯”,我们喝酒后紧随祝福的一句,名字来源被认为是一个涉及公用的酒杯的行为。英国神父流传来的流动的“爱情杯”是主人当酒杯走过一轮后在一块烹制的面包滴几滴酒吃掉的。现在祝酒,不再公用一个酒杯,而是用自己的杯子。为了弥补群体脱离感,抛弃了公用酒杯,我们开始用自个的杯子,因此祝酒才产生了。因此一种靠说友好祝福维系关系的方式产生了。The clinking of glasses has been added to the practice of offering toasts for a few reasons, none having anything to do with poison. Prior to such augmentation, toasts pleased only four of the five senses; by adding the "clink," a pleasant sound was made part of the experience, and wine glasses have come to be prized not only for their appearance but also for the tones they produce when struck. Yet beyond mere aural pleasure, the act of touching your glass to that of others is a way of emphasizing that you are part of the good wishes being expressed, that you are making a physical connection to the toast. The practice also serves another purpose, that of uniting the individuals taking part in the benediction into a cohesive group: as the wine glasses are brought together, so symbolically are the people holding them. On a deeper level, the wine is also being recommuned with itself — that which had been one (when it had been in its own bottle) but was separated (when it was poured into a variety of glasses) is brought back into contact with the whole of itself, if only for a moment.碰杯因一些原因也被加进祝酒的行列,和毒药没有一丝关系。增加了这些,祝酒使气氛好了五分之四。通过加碰杯这一环节,一种悦耳的声音成为祝酒的一部分。并且不仅仅赞美杯的出现还赞美酒杯碰撞时发出的响声。然而除了听觉享受外,有人和你碰杯也是一种友好祝福的暗示。你通过祝酒与人发生了接触。碰杯还有另一个意图,就是通过人与人的祝酒使之参加到一个有关联的大集体。当酒杯碰在一起的时候,人们也象征性地“拥抱”了。深层次的说,人也是(当用自己的杯子喝酒时)在一起的,(当酒在一起时)人其实是分开的,从某种意义上说,酒有了人回归一个完整的联系的含义。Etiquette mavens say one need not clink glasses with everyone present when participating in toasts among large assemblies. Rather than reach across vast expanses of wide tables (thereby risking losing your balance and ending up in the guacamole), simply raise your glass and make eye contact with the group.礼节上在现在当一个人参加一个大聚会时不需要和每个人碰杯。相比较隔个大桌子(而冒着失去平衡的危险)碰杯而言,还不如举起酒杯眼神交流感情来得真切。 /201007/108887

  Plan ahead. As much as you hate working on the weekends, doing just a little planning ahead of time can make your Mondays much better. This can be as simple as getting a full night’s sleep (instead of staying up late on Sunday) or packing your lunch the night before. One of my personal favorites, though, is taking five minutes during the weekend to “pre-prioritize” your Monday. Grab a notepad or planner and jot down the first three tasks you need to complete Monday morning. Then stick to them. 早计划 尽管你不喜欢周末工作,但是在周末抽出一点时间提前计划一下会对你有很大的好处。周日不要熬夜或者提前准备好周一的午餐。个人建议在周末抽出五分钟时间,找个笔记本写下你需要在周一早晨优先做的三件事,并坚持做到。 /201004/102062

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