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佛山人民医院治疗早泄多少钱南方医科大学顺德医院电话号码佛山顺德区阳痿早泄价格 Dominic Lieven’s stated reason for this contribution to the centenary literature on World War I is to place Russia “where it belongs, at the very centerof the war’s history. Certainly the war proved to be at the center of Russian history, leading to revolution, dictatorship, repression and more war.多米尼克·利芬(Dominic Lieven)称,自己这部关于“一战”百年文献的著作,目的是把俄罗斯放在这场战争的历史“应有的位置,也就是它的核心”。当然,这场战争也被明位于俄罗斯历史的核心,为这个国家带来了其后的革命、独裁、压迫与更多战争。But Mr. Lieven, a well-respected British scholar of Imperial Russia, makes the convincing case that World War I was really about the struggle of Russia and Germany for territory, status and influence in Eastern and Central Europe, in which the fate of Ukraine shades of today played a central role. At the end, Russia and Germany both lost, leading to a peace in which neither played a constructive part, and making a second conflict likely.利芬是一位备受尊敬的英国学者,专门研究沙皇时期的俄囀?他给出了令人信的据,表明“一战”其实是关乎俄罗斯与德国在东欧与中欧就领土、地位及影响进行的一系列斗争,其中乌克兰的命运(与如今的情况颇有类似)扮演了关键角色。最后,俄罗斯与德国都成了输家,在其后的和平之中,双方都没有扮演建设性的角色,并且为其后的第二次冲突埋下伏笔。In giving Russia’s side of the story as he did in his well-received study of an earlier war, “Russia Against Napoleon: The Battle for Europe, 1807 to 1814Mr. Lieven punctures the popular Western image of a reactionary autocracy stumbling into a suicidal war through misguided Slavic nationalism. There is that, to be sure, but his Russia is also a vast empire and an economic powerhouse in the making, where a fledgling civil society and influential press often contributed to nationalist passions while a counterintuitively capable aristocratic elite wrestled with legitimate questions of where Russia’s national interests lay in the complex and rapidly changing world of the early 20th century.利芬的《俄国与拿破仑的决战:鏖战欧罗巴807-1814Russia Against Napoleon: The Battle for Europe, 1807 to 1814)一书从俄罗斯的立场出发讲述俄法战争的历史,备受好评,在这本新书中也是如此。在一般西方人的印象里,俄罗斯是个反动的独裁政府,由于误入歧途的斯拉夫民族主义,跌跌撞撞地发起了一场自杀式的战争,利芬对这个观点做出了批评。诚然有着这方面的因素,但俄罗斯也是一个巨大的帝国,是发展中的强大经济体,刚刚起步的公民社会与颇具影响力的媒体经常鼓动国家主义热情。与此同时,和人们的直觉不同的是,俄罗斯的贵族精英极具能力,在世界形势极度复杂和快速变化的20世纪初,他们要为涉及俄罗斯国家利益的正当问题而斟酌。Mr. Lieven’s empathy with the well-born men who ran Russia and its foreign policy under Emperor Nicholas II may be explained in part by his own descent from an illustrious family of Baltic aristocrats one of whom, Prince Alexander Lieven, makes a delightful cameo appearance in the book as chief of the Naval General Staff from 1911 to 1914, who “liked to work with his pet monkey perched on his shoulder.”利芬对沙皇尼古拉二世治下出身高贵的俄罗斯统治阶层,乃至他们的外交政策怀有共鸣,或许部分是由于他本人就出身于波罗的海贵族中的一个显赫家族——家族中的亚历山大·利芬王Prince Alexander Lieven)也在这本书中有过令人愉快的客串出场,他于1911年至1914年担任海军总参谋长,“工作时喜欢让自己的宠物猴子蹲在肩膀上”。But it would be wrong to dismiss Mr. Lieven’s portrayal of the imperial elite and its role as solely the product of his heritage. On the contrary, his intimate familiarity with the Russia he describes and his extensive study of the letters, diaries and books of the chief actors in Russia’s descent “towards the flamesmany not hitherto accessible to historians are what render this work so authoritative and able.但如果以此便认为,利芬为帝国贵族阶层乃至其角色所描绘的画像是由他的出身所决定的,那就大错特错了。与此相反,为这部作品赋予权威性与可读性的,是他对笔下俄罗斯世界深切的熟稔;是因为他大量研究了在俄罗斯“堕入火焰”这一进程中的主角们的书信、日记和书籍(其中很多如今已经无法为史学家们所见)。In Mr. Lieven’s telling, the primary cause of the war was “the conflict of interests, fears, and ambitions created by the decline of the Ottoman and Austrian empires.The crises this generated could have been resolved only through the collaboration of the rising German and Russian states. But that was neither simple nor obvious at the time in St. Petersburg, torn among the imperatives of ensuring access to Black Sea ports through the Straits; sustaining a Slavophile “missionto the Balkan Slavs; managing the costs of a vast land empire; and balancing dynastic links to Germany against fears of its rising power.在利芬的叙事中,这场战争的首要原因是“由奥斯曼帝国与奥匈帝国的衰落所引起的利益、恐惧与野心的冲突。”这些冲突所诱发的危机只能靠着崛起的德国与俄罗斯的合作才有可能得到解决。但在当时,圣彼得堡要攫取黑海海峡,以此获得通往黑海港口的通路;要对巴尔干半岛的斯拉夫人维持亲斯拉夫的“使命”;要维持庞大内陆帝国的开销;一方面恐惧德国崛起的势力,一方面又要与它保持动态平衡的关系,在这种情况下,与德国合作并不容易,形势并不清晰。“The options open to Russia were difficult, and there were powerful and rational arguments to justify the foreign policy adopted by Petersburg,Mr. Lieven writes. As someone who also has Russian roots, I found his portraits of the men from the “nest of the aristocracy and gentrywho made or disputed that policy like the foreign ministers Aleksandr Izvolsky and Sergey Sazonov, or the diplomat-journalist Prince Grigorii Troubetskoy among the most interesting passages of the book. Contrary to the notion of self-serving noblemen leading Russia to disaster, these men, as portrayed by Mr. Lieven, “were far from stupidand generally decent. They were also, as he makes clear, closely linked by class, rank and often marriage to the aristocratic elite that predominated in most European governments.“俄罗斯所面临的选择非常艰难,圣彼得堡就外交政策展开过高效而理性的讨论,”利芬写道。他在书中描述了那些参与制定或讨论政策,“出身贵族与上层的人”,诸如外交大臣亚历山大·伊兹沃斯Aleksandr Izvolsky)和塞吉·萨佐诺Sergey Sazonov)以及外交官兼记者格里高利·特鲁贝特斯科伊王子(Prince Grigorii Troubetskoy)等人,作为同样有着俄罗斯血统的人,我觉得他为这些人描绘的肖像是全书中最有意思的部分之一。人们通常认为,是自私自利的贵族引导着俄罗斯走向灾难,与此相反,利芬笔下的这些人“远非愚蠢之辈”,并且大都非常正派。他写道,通过阶级、阶层乃至联姻,这些人同统治着大多数欧洲政府的贵族精英们有着紧密的联系。Nicholas II, in Mr. Lieven’s telling, is also more complex and sympathetic than the hapless monarch of Western lore. The subject of another earlier Lieven study, Nicholas is “above all else a Russian patriot,steeped in the ideology of a unique communion between Orthodox czar and people, caught between equally dangerous demands for reform and status quo.利芬写道,尼古拉斯二世也比西方人心目中那个不幸的末代君主要复杂得多,富于同情心得多。利芬早年曾经专门研究过尼古拉斯,说他“首先是个俄罗斯爱国者”,笃信东正教沙皇与人民之间存在独一无二的联系,在同样危险的改革与维持现状二者之间左右为难。Mr. Lieven’s ability to empathize with the different forces of the old order isn’t limited to the elites. The book is liberally sprinkled with personal asides like this one: “Personally, my sympathies are with the soldiers: I too would have been deeply unwilling to sacrifice my life for the Straits.I particularly liked the brusque dismissal of popular myths about the power of the holy wanderer Rasputin: “Grigorii Rasputin’s influence on policy was grossly exaggerated then and has been ever since.”利芬对旧秩序中的不同势力都能产生共情,而且不仅仅局限于精英阶层。这本书中亦有着大量的个人化旁白,诸如:“我个人同情那些士兵们:换了我也绝对不会愿意为黑海海峡而牺牲生命”。关于神圣游荡者拉斯普京的权力,利芬也严厉地驳斥了流行的神话,“格里高利·拉斯普Grigorii Rasputin)对政策的影响力从那时起乃至其后被大大夸张了”,我特别喜欢这一段。This book is not, however, always an easy for the general er, who may at times become lost in the thickets of names, arguments and events. And only fellow historians are likely to fully appreciate how Mr. Lieven disagrees with them, since he often does not identify them. But for anyone interested in the First World War, the effort is well worth the exposure to a side of the war that is often given short shrift in Western histories.不过,这本书对于普通读者而言并不总是轻松易读,读者有时会迷失在错综复杂的人名、辩论乃至事件之中。只有历史学家同行们才有可能真正欣赏利芬与他们不一致的地方,因为他总是不把自己视为他们当中的一员。但是任何对“一战”感兴趣的人来说,读这本书是值得的,可以看到通常被西方历史一笔带过的战争一方的情形。Inevitably, an account of European maneuvers and passions on the eve of cataclysm prompts a search for contemporary parallels, especially when issues like the fate of Ukraine are described as pivotal, and the main protagonists Russia and Germany are again at the center of European politics. Mr. Lieven acknowledges the echoes, but he is quick to note that Angela Merkel’s Germany is very different from Kaiser Wilhelm II’s; Vladimir Putin’s Russia is not Nicholas II’s; Ukraine does not hold the key to Russian imperial power; “and Europe is no longer at the center of the world.”对于那场大灾难前夕欧洲各国的谋略与的描述,不可避免地会令人想到当今局势,特别是乌克兰的命运,在那本书中被描述为关键问题,而书中的两个主角——俄罗斯与德国——如今又位于欧洲政治的中心。利芬承认这种历史的回响,但他很快指出,安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)领导下的德国与德皇威廉二Kaiser Wilhelm II)领导下的德国有着极大不同,弗拉迪米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)的俄罗斯也已经不再是沙皇尼古拉斯二世的俄罗斯;乌克兰不再是俄罗斯皇权的关键;而且“欧洲也已经不再是世界的中心”。Yet some of the forces that Mr. Lieven describes behind Russian policies and politics messianism coupled with a sense of inferiority, backwardness coupled with brilliance and great wealth, the vastness of the land and the determination of the rulers to be recognized as a great power are all very much on display in Putin’s Russia.但是利芬笔下俄罗斯政策与政治背后的力量——弥赛亚主义加民族自卑感、倒退势力加上卓越的才华与巨大的财富、广大的土地与拥有极大权力的领导人——这一切仍然在普京治下的俄罗斯具有重要的一席之地。Mr. Lieven sees more worrisome parallels in Asia. On the last page, he writes that he conceived and wrote the book at his home on a Japanese mountain, and thinking about the dangers of geopolitical brinkmanship and strident nationalism in east Asia “is not a comforting experience.Hopefully discomfort will prove to be the worst of it this time around.利芬认为亚洲也有同样的令人不安之处。在本书的最后一页,他写道,自己是在日本山地的家中构思并写作这本书的,他认为,在东亚,地缘政治边缘政策的种种危险与甚嚣尘上的民族主义“并不是令人愉悦的体验”。只希望违和感就是这个时代最糟的事情吧。THE END OF TSARIST RUSSIA《沙皇俄国的末日:向“一战”与革命进军》The March to World War I amp; Revolution(The End of Tsarist Russia: The March to World War I amp; Revolution)By Dominic Lieven多米尼克·利芬 26 pages. Viking. .426页。Viking出版社5美元 /201509/397476佛山市三水人民医院男科电话

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佛山顺德区医院专家预约 There were still thick crusts of dirty snow piled up on the edges of the pavement outside Krasnopresnenskaya, a Metro station in central Moscow, on Tuesday. Beside this reminder of a long winter stood four young men and women holding bright green balloons. “Spring is coming!said one of them, while handing out leaflets to passers-by.20154日,星期二。莫斯科市中心克拉斯诺普列斯年斯卡娅地铁站外,人行道两边仍堆着肮脏的厚厚积雪。冻实的雪堆提醒着人们这是个漫长的冬天。积雪旁站着四名年轻男女,他们手里拿着亮绿色的气球。其中一人边向路人派发传单,边说道:“春天来了!”The four, along with similar groups of activists elsewhere, are trying to mobilise their compatriots to come out in Moscow, and a handful of other Russian cities, on Sunday to protest against President Vladimir Putin in what they are calling an “anti-crisis march这四名年轻人,连同俄罗斯各地类似的活动人士群体,正努力动员他们的同胞本周日现身莫斯科及俄罗斯其他几个城市,参加抗议总统弗拉基米#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)的游行,他们称之为“反危机游行”。“After years of siphoning off the oil revenues, the current regime has led the country to a standstill and into complete bankruptcy,the leaflets say. “Putin and his government cannot lift the country out of crisis and must leave.”传单上写道:“当前政权经过多年对石油收入的榨取,已将这个国家带入停滞,走向彻底破产。普京和他的政府不能带领这个国家走出危机,他们必须下台。”A few passersby took the leaflets; most ignored them. Three years after 100,000 took part in opposition rallies across Russia, the movement is splintered: some leaders are jailed, others are in exile while several have switched sides.有几个路人接过传单,但大多数人无视他们的存在。三年前,俄罗斯全国0万人参加了各地的反对集会,而今这场运动已离破碎,领导者中有的被监禁,有的已倒戈,有的流亡在外。With the economy heading into recession, conventional wisdom would suggest that Mr Putin whose support ratings were catapulted to over 80 per cent by his annexation of Crimea a year ago and have stayed at record highs ever since might face political trouble.一年前普京吞并克里米亚时,他的持率一举超0%,且此后一直停留在历史高位。但随着俄罗斯经济步入衰退,人们普遍认为普京可能会面临政治困境。That was the thinking behind the sanctions with which the west has been trying to punish the Russian leader for his Crimea grab. The theory goes that if the oligarchs, whom Mr Putin has kept loyal, were threatened with financial losses, they would start leaning on him to change course. Equally if the public started feeling economic pain, it would also turn against the president.这正是西方制裁俄罗斯背后的逻辑。西方一直试图借制裁来惩罚这位俄罗斯领导人霸占克里米亚的行为。理论上,如果俄罗斯那些对普京保持忠诚的寡头们面临经济损失的威胁,他们就会开始逼迫普京改变道路。同样,如果俄罗斯人民开始感到经济阵痛,也会掉头反对总统。But the Russian leader has overturned such assumptions. A constant drumbeat of propaganda has portrayed the crisis as a fight for Russia’s survival and the vast majority of the population has rallied around Mr Putin.但这位俄罗斯领导人推翻了上述假设。连续不断的宣传攻势将这场危机描绘成一场俄罗斯的生存之战,让绝大多数俄罗斯人团结到了普京身边。The economic pain has very clearly set in, although only partly as a result of the sanctions. More significant has been the plummeting price of oil, which together with gas accounts for three-quarters of Russia’s exports and more than half of its budget revenues.经济阵痛已经很明显地出现了,不过仅有部分是制裁造成的。更直接的原因还是油价暴跌,石油与天然气在俄罗斯出口额里占四分之三,在其财政预算收入中占比超过一半。Following the collapse of the rouble by more than 40 per cent against the dollar over the past year, consumer prices are soaring, a problem made worse by the government’s decision in August to ban a wide range of food products from Polish apples to French cheese in retaliation against western sanctions.过去一年卢布对美元暴跌40%以上,卢布崩盘后消费价格飞涨,政府的一项决策更是火上浇油——去月,俄罗斯政府为报复西方制裁,禁止进口多种食品,从波兰的苹果到法国的奶酪全都包含在内。Economic shocks经济冲击The authorities are forcing everyone to tighten their belts, freezing public sector salaries and laying off doctors and nurses, while private companies are cutting production and workers.俄罗斯当局正迫使每个人勒紧裤腰带。公共部门人员薪水冻结,医生和护士被辞退,私营企业则在削减产量和裁员。The government has said inflation might peak around 15 per cent this summer, and the economy is likely to contract by about 5 per cent. “It’s the biggest crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union,says Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister.俄罗斯政府表示,通胀可能在今年夏天见顶,峰值在15%左右,国内经济很可能收缩%。俄罗斯前能源部副部长弗拉基米尔·米洛Vladimir Milov)说:“这是自苏联解体以来最大的危机。”Opposition activists hope to tap into the anger they believe economic hardship will eventually trigger.反对派活动人士相信经济困难最终将引发人民的愤怒,他们希望能利用这股情绪。Boris Nemtsov, a veteran liberal opposition politician who briefly served as deputy prime minister under Boris Yeltsin in the 1990s, says stagnant wages and soaring inflation topped the agenda when he met with residents of Yaroslavl, a town northeast of Moscow, last week. “They believed that the embargo on imported foods is America’s fault, and they were surprised when I told them no, that was not Obama, it was Putin,he says. “This is what we need to make people aware of: the crisis, that’s Putin.”资深的自由主义反对派政治人士、曾0世纪90年代鲍里#8226;叶利Boris Yeltsin)执政时期短暂地担任过副总理的鲍里斯#8226;涅姆佐夫(Boris Nemtsov)表示,他在上周会见了莫斯科东北雅罗斯拉夫尔镇的居民,那里人们最关注的问题是工资停滞和通胀飙升。他说:“他们认为进口食品禁运是美国的错,当我告诉他们这不是奥巴马的错,而是普京的错时,他们很惊讶。这就是我们需要让人民意识到的,这场危机的根源是普京。”But nobody is under any illusions that grumbling over Russia’s economic woes will bring about swift political change.但没人幻想俄罗斯经济困境引发的抱怨会带来迅速的政治变革。“It hasn’t got to the point yet where economic hardship can have an impact on mass opinion,says Dmitry Gudkov, an opposition member of parliament.反对派国会议员德米特#8226;古德科夫(Dmitry Gudkov)说:“经济还没有困难到会影响大众舆论的地步。”According to the independent Centre for Social and Labour Rights in Moscow, the number of protests over lay-offs and wages has risen sharply in the past year. But observers believe these will remain limited to towns overly dependent on single employers, and this local isolation will allow the government to deal with it. Economists in Moscow believe that only a further slide in the oil price below and continued sanctions could plunge Russia into a catastrophic financial crisis next year which would significantly alter the situation.根据莫斯科独立机构“社会和劳动权益中心Centre for Social and Labour Rights)的资料,过去一年反对裁员减薪的抗议活动急速增加。但观察人士认为,这些抗议将仅限于那些过度依赖单一雇主的城镇,由于它们在位置上都较为孤立,政府有能力解决它们。莫斯科的经济学家们认为,只有当油价0美元下方进一步下滑,同时制裁持续,俄罗斯才有可能在明年陷入灾难性的金融危机,而这会造成局面重大改变。Sunday’s rally is not seen as a test for how Mr Putin’s opponents can exploit the economic crisis, but rather a tiny first step for an opposition reduced to a shadow of its former self. In 2011 and 2012, members of the Moscow middle class mounted a real challenge to Mr Putin when they rallied around Alexei Navalny, the lawyer and anti-corruption blogger.没有人认为周日的集会能考验普京的反对者利用这场经济危机的能力,而是将之视与之前相比力量已十分微弱的反对派迈出的微小第一步。在2011年和2012年,莫斯科的中产阶层曾集结在律师、反腐败主阿列克谢#8226;纳瓦尔尼(Alexei Navalny)身边,对普京发起了真正的挑战。But the movement has since fallen apart. “It is a problem that many activists are abroad, in prison or under house arrest. It weakens the movement,says Pavel Elizarov, an opposition leader who sought political asylum in Lisbon after the government crushed the 2012 protests. “But for sure it’s better to live abroad than to be in prison.”但这场运动后来分崩离析。反对派领导人帕维尔#8226;叶利扎罗Pavel Elizarov)说:“许多活动人士要么身处国外,要么被囚禁或软禁,这是个问题。这削弱了抗议运动。不过住在国外肯定要比进监狱强。012年的抗议活动遭到政府镇压后,叶利扎罗夫在里斯本寻求政治庇护。Those left behind are trying to rebuild. “Three years ago, we were an opposition. Now we are no more than dissidents,says Mr Nemtsov. “The task is to organise a real opposition again.”留下的人正试图恢复抗议活动。涅姆佐夫说:“三年前我们是反对派,现在我们只不过是异见分子。当前任务是再次组织起一真正的反对派。”Group therapy团体治疗Organisers say a turnout of 20,000 on Sunday less than one-fifth of the crowds at the peak of the 2011 protests would be a “very decent success组织者们表示,周日集会的出席者如能达万人,将是一次“非常像样的成功”。这一人数还不011年抗议活动高峰期人数的五分之一。Nina Zavrieva, a 28-year-old tech entrepreneur, says she will attend, if only to reassure herself that there are still like-minded people in Moscow. “In a way it’s like group therapy,she says.28岁的高科技创业者尼#8226;扎夫里耶娃(Nina Zavrieva)表示,她会参加这场集会,哪怕只是为了安慰自己莫斯科还有与自己志同道合的人。她说:“某种意义上,这像一场团体治疗。”The opposition is trying to create a platform for a long-term movement.反对派正努力为一场长期运动创造一个平台。“The regime has generated a lot of fear. The usual pictures from protests in Russia have been dark ones, with police officers dressed like astronauts and beating people,says Leonid Volkov, one of the rally organisers and a member of Mr Navalny’s Progress party. “We have to return peaceful rallies to politics as a regular tool.”纳瓦尔尼领导的进步Progress party)党员、集会组织者之一列昂尼德#8226;沃尔科夫(Leonid Volkov)说:“这个政权已经造成了大量恐惧。从有关抗议的寻常照片就可看出,俄罗斯的抗议活动场面黑暗,警察们穿得像宇航员一样殴打群众。我们必须回归和平的政治集会,将此作为常规工具。”The odds are stacked against them. Mr Navalny himself was jailed for 15 days last week for handing out leaflets advertising Sunday’s protest. He will not be released until March 4, robbing the rally of its main draw.重重困难摆在他们面前。纳瓦尔尼本人在上周因派发传单宣传周日这场抗议集会,被判监禁15日,直到3日才能释放,令这场集会丧失了主心骨。Last month, police raided both the offices of Mr Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation and the homes of leading staff. “I think they are going to launch some criminal case against us, accusing us of having misused the donations because we paid our staff a salary,says Roman Rubanov, one of Mr Navalny’s key associates at the foundation.上个月,警方搜查了纳瓦尔尼的反腐基金Anti-Corruption Foundation)办公室,以及主要职员的家。纳瓦尔尼在基金会里的重要伙伴罗#8226;鲁巴诺夫(Roman Rubanov)说:“我想他们会对我们发起一些刑事诉讼,指控我们滥用捐款,因为我们向员工付薪水。”Even if the opposition can get back on its feet, it is faced with a huge challenge: to broaden its appeal beyond the Moscow middle class and find allies.即使反对派能重新站起来,还要面临一个巨大挑战:他们要将自己的影响力扩大到莫斯科中产阶层以外,同时还要寻找盟友。“The opposition movement has to understand why 85 per cent [of the people] are still in favour of the ruling party,says Ms Zavrieva. “Once they understand the problems of the masses, and manage to work with a greater group of people not just the 5-10 per cent then something big is going to happen. At this point the opposition is a little bit in a world of its own.”扎夫里耶娃说:“反对派运动必须明白,为什5%(的人民)仍持执政党。一旦他们明白了群众的问题所在,并设法与更广大的人群合作,而不是仅%0%的人,就将会有大事发生。在这一方面,反对派有点活在自己的世界里。”Mr Gudkov exemplifies this disconnect. He half dismisses the need to engage the wider population. “If, roughly speaking, 60 per cent of the population supports Putin, only 5 per cent are active supporters. The other 55 per cent are zombified TV watchers who will never decide any sort of politics,he argues. “You show them a different picture [on the TV] tomorrow, and they’ll think differently.”古德科夫充分体现了这种脱节。他部分否定了争取更广泛群众的必要。他称:“粗略地讲,如果0%的人持普京,那么只%的人是积极的持者,其他55%的人都是‘僵尸’电视观众,他们永远不会决定任何政治问题。你明天(在电视上)向他们展示不同的画面,他们就会产生不同的想法。”Making new allies结交新盟友Not everyone is as cynical. Mr Navalny’s campaigners realise that while his focus on social media allowed him to build support despite being barred from state television, it also prevented him from reaching Russians over a certain age and outside the capital who do not use those media. To address that, Mr Rubanov and his colleagues are working on what they call Russia’s first political tabloid, an eight-page, monthly pamphlet to publish the dirt Mr Navalny’s anti-corruption campaign digs up about the men and women who run the country.不是每个人都这么愤世嫉俗。纳瓦尔尼阵营的活动家们认识到,尽管在国家电视台的封杀下,纳瓦尔尼依然靠专攻社交媒体获得了持,然而这也阻止了他影响特定年龄层次以外、以及首都外面那些不使用社交媒体的俄罗斯人。为解决这一问题,鲁巴诺夫和他的同事们正忙于出版他们所称的俄罗斯第一份政治小报。这是一个版面的月刊,上面将刊载纳瓦尔尼的反腐运动挖出来的、关于执掌这个国家的男人和女人们的丑闻。Mr Navalny has also started to co-operate with Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former oligarch who moved to Switzerland when Mr Putin released him from prison in late 2013 after 10 years behind bars, and who has since proposed himself as an alternative president.纳瓦尔尼还开始与前寡头米哈伊#8226;霍多尔科夫斯Mikhail Khodorkovsky)合作013年底,普京释放了身陷囹圄10年的霍多尔科夫斯基。获释后他搬到瑞士,而且自此开始表示欲竞选总统。The opposition will eventually face the question of how a change of power can be brought about. Opposition politicians reject the possibility of a revolution, but some opponents of Mr Putin hope for a palace coup, while others ponder about how the president could be persuaded to step down.反对派最终将面临一个问题:权力的更迭该怎样实现。反对派政治人士拒绝革命的可能性,但普京的一些反对者期待发生宫廷政变,还有人在思考如何说总统主动下台。Mr Gudkov claims that Alexei Kudrin, a widely respected former economic adviser to Mr Putin, has discussed with officials in western governments the idea that the Russian leader and some members of his closest circle could be offered retirement abroad with a promise to be left alone an arrangement dismissed as impossible by western diplomats in Moscow.古德科夫称普京的前经济顾问、广受尊敬的阿列克谢#8226;库德Alexei Kudrin)与西方政府官员讨论过一个想法:允许普京和他核心圈子的部分成员退隐海外,并承诺不打扰他们。莫斯科的西方外交官认为这一安排不可能实现,不予考虑。Other politicians are discussing the matter in more realistic terms. “Putin’s rating will not stay at above 80 per cent forever. It will start coming down, very gradually,says Mr Nemtsov. “And once it does, the fear will diminish, too, and at some point some big business will start supporting and financing us.”其他政客正从更现实的层面讨论此事。涅姆佐夫说:“普京的持率不会永远停留在80%以上,它将非常缓慢地开始下降。而一旦他的持率下降,人民的恐惧就将减少,然后在某一时刻,一些大公司将开始持和资助我们。”Such scenarios are long in the future. They anticipate Mr Putin serving another six-year term after the present one ends in 2018. At that point the constitution, which allows no more than two consecutive presidential terms, would force him to step aside. Says Mr Nemtsov: “We are talking about 2024.”这是他们对很久以后的设想。他们预计普京将018年当前任期结束后,再连任下一年任期。然后宪法会迫使他下台,因为宪法规定总统连任不得超过两届。涅姆佐夫说:“我们讨论的024年的事。”来 /201503/361993佛山医院预约挂号系统专家佛山新世纪男科医院电话

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