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2020年02月17日 19:08:49 | 作者:医护媒体 | 来源:新华社
While 2016 was the year the unlikely became real, currency investors enter 2017 no better equipped to tell the difference between reality and illusion.尽管2016年是一个不太可能的事情变成现实的年份,但在进入2017年之际,外汇投资者仍无法更好区分现实与假象。Brexit and Trump made a mockery of assumptions, shredded investorsbest-laid plans and turned political risk analysts into the most in-demand advisers of the year.英国退Brexit)和特朗普是对假设的嘲弄,破坏了投资者精心设计的计划,并让政治风险分析师成了去年最抢手的顾问。The two big themes of 2016 will feel palpable during the first quarter of 2017. Donald Trump takes the oath of office to become US president on January 20. By March’s end, UK prime minister Theresa May will have sent to the EU the letter that triggers the UK’s formal divorce proceedings, and revealed some element of her negotiating hand.2017年第一季度,人们仍将明显感觉到2016年的这两大主题0日,唐纳特朗Donald Trump)将宣誓就任美国总统。到3月底,英国首相特里萨?Theresa May)将已向欧盟致信,触发英国的正式退欧程序,并显示她的谈判立场的一些元素。All the same, neither of these “facts on the groundwill bring clarity to investors, even if their market behaviour in the tail-end of 2016 suggests they hope and expect otherwise.尽管如此,这两个“既成事实”都不会让投资者拨开迷雾,即便他们在2016年底的市场行为似乎表明,他们希望并期待情况会变得明朗。A “dollar exuberancebroke out post-election, says Peter Rosenstreich of the internet-based bank, Swisse. Trump promises of fiscal policy and tax reform had the “near-magical effectsof convincing investors that monetary policy would end smoothly, global growth enhanced and corporate profits boosted.互联网瑞Swisse)的彼罗森施特赖希(Peter Rosenstreich)表示,“美元繁荣”在美国选举后出现。特朗普承诺的财政政策和税收改革承诺产生了“近乎魔力般的效果”:让投资者相信货币政策将平稳收尾,全球增长将提速,企业利润将得到提振. November 9: Donald Trump’s election victory spurs start of dollar rally11日:唐纳特朗普胜选,开启美元涨势. December 5: Supreme Court hearing into UK’s government’s Article 50 appeal adds to Brexit doubts, pushing sterling higher22日:英国最高法院开始审理英国政府就触发《里斯本条约》第50Article 50)权限提起的上诉,这加剧了外界对于英国退欧的疑虑,促使英镑汇率上涨. December 7: China’s reserves drop a further bn as central bank struggles to halt sliding value of renminbi32日:中国外汇储备进一步缩00亿美元,中国央行艰难阻止人民币贬值. December 14: Dollar rally sustained by Fed rate rise424日:美联Fed)加息维持了美元的涨势。This is giving the US consumer a false sense of wealth and wellbeing, he believes, arguing that US data merely reflect a temporary upswing in a large cyclical downturn.他认为,这给美国消费者带来了一种虚假的富有和幸福的感觉,他辩称,美国数据只是反映出一段大规模周期性低迷期间出现的暂时回升。“We remain sceptical that President Trump will accomplish anything close to the miracle growth rhetoric he has been supplying,says Mr Rosenstreich.罗森施特赖希表示:“我们仍怀疑,特朗普总统能否实现他一直夸口的近乎奇迹般的增长承诺。”The pound’s recent rally also suggests investors expect a clearer picture of Brexit to emerge early in 2017, fuelled by softer rhetoric from Mrs May and her ministers.英镑最近的上涨也似乎表明,受到梅和她手下的部长级官员们较为柔和的言论的鼓舞,投资者预计英国退欧的前景将在2017年初变得更为明朗。Yet according to Nomura’s foreign exchange strategist Jordan Rochester, Mrs May’s Brexit plan is likely to be “very vague, full of hope, but lacking in any concrete details to safeguard the government’s negotiation tactics然而,野村券(Nomura)外汇策略师策略师乔丹?罗切斯特(Jordan Rochester)表示,梅的退欧计划可能会“非常含糊,充满希望,但缺乏具体的细节来保障政府的谈判策略”。For greater certainty, investors may well revert to what they have followed more closely in recent years economic data and the utterances of central banks. This will be the case even if the limitations of monetary policy mean policymakers are supposedly passing responsibility for global growth to politicians.要想获得更大确定性,投资者很有可能回到最近几年他们更密切关注的事情上:经济数据和央行的表态。即便货币政策的局限性意味着政策制定者是时候将全球增长的责任移交给政治人士,情况仍会如此。Steven Saywell, BNP Paribas’s global head of foreign exchange strategy, says the dollar’s post-election rally of more than 11 per cent against the yen was built on Trump-fuelled expectations.法国巴黎(BNP Paribas)外汇策略全球主管斯蒂塞维Steven Saywell)表示,美元兑日元汇率在美国大选后上涨1%,这基于特朗普引发的预期。Contrast that with Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve, and her upbeat assessment of the US economy that accompanied last month’s rate rise.这与美联储主席珍妮特?耶伦(Janet Yellen)的表态以及她0162月加息后对美国经济的乐观评估形成对比。“Inflation has picked up,says Mr Saywell. “Even without Trump expectations, the dollar would be stronger.”“通胀已上扬,”塞维尔表示,“即便没有特朗普引发的预期,美元也会走强。”If the Fed is a better guide than Mr Trump for the dollar’s broad direction in 2017, what will determine the euro’s path the European Central Bank or European elections?如果说,就美元在2017年的基本走势而言,美联储是比特朗普更好的指引,那么决定欧元走势的因素会是什么?欧洲央行(ECB)还是欧洲选举?The temptation for investors is to keep a close watch on the slew of 2017 European elections for further signs of the populist traits that secured victories for the Leave campaign in the UK referendum and Mr Trump in the US.投资者也许将忍不住密切关017年欧洲的一系列选举,看有没有民粹主义情绪的更多迹象,这些情绪曾让退欧阵营在英国公投中获胜,也让特朗普赢得美国大选。Yet as Derek Halpenny at MUFG points out, largely forgotten in the attention on Brexit and Trump were the actions of the ECB last month in increasing quantitative easing purchases.然而,就像三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)的德里克?赫尔潘尼(Derek Halpenny)指出的那样,欧洲央行0162月做出的扩大量化宽松(QE)购买规模的措施,在人们对英国退欧公投和特朗普的关注中基本上被忽视了。These, he says, “brought about a revival in the divergence trade that will probably be the theme for the dollar, the euro and the yen in the first part of 2017他表示,这些措施“带来了分化交易(divergence trade)的复苏,这或许会成为美元、欧元和日元017年上半年的主旋律”。Mr Saywell agrees. “The euro hasn’t fallen as much against the dollar as the yen,he says. “A lot will come down to the policy response of central banks.”塞维尔认同这点。“欧元兑美元汇率的下跌幅度不及日元兑美元汇率,”他表示,“很多事情将取决于央行的政策回应。”The ECB, he suspects, will taper monetary policy. While BNP Paribas forecasts the yen heading for 28 against the dollar, maybe even to 35, the bank expects the euro to drop to parity with the dollar but not much further.他估计,欧洲央行将逐渐结束货币政策措施。尽管巴黎预测,日元兑美元汇率将跌向1美元28日元,甚美元35日元,但该行预测,欧元兑美元汇率将跌:1,但不会进一步大幅下跌。“As the ECB exits QE, the market will rebound,says Mr Saywell.他表示:“随着欧洲央行退出量化宽松政策,市场将反弹。”Still, the canny investor will doubtless keep up to date with all developments, political and economic, to chart the most trouble-free path through foreign exchange. As Simon Derrick at BNY Mellon says, 2017 has all the hallmarks of being a repeat of 1985 loose fiscal policy, tax cuts, a hawkish Fed and a soaring dollar.话虽如此,精明的投资者肯定会跟踪所有政治和经济事态,以求在外汇市场摸索出一条麻烦最少的道路。正如纽约梅隆银BNY Mellon)策略师西德里Simon Derrick)所言017年具备让1985年重演的所有特点:宽松财政政策、减税、美联储鹰派立场和美元汇率飙升。“It was the pressure of US corporates that was brought to bear on Congress and subsequently the Reagan White House that led to the abandonment of a strong dollar policy,says Mr Derrick.德里克表示:“美国企业的压力影响了美国国会,后来也影响了里根主政的白宫,导致美国放弃了强势美元政策。”Could there be a similar political backlash in Trump’s US? “Absolutely,Mr Derrick says.在特朗普主政时期,美国会否出现类似的政治反弹?德里克表示:“绝对会”。This is by no means the only moment in 2017 when the realities of politics and economics will affect investment choices. The other, warns Mr Derrick, is China.这绝017年唯一一个政治和经济现实将影响投资选择的时刻。德里克警告称,另一个是中国。In November, the People’s Bank of China drained its reserves by bn and has consequently been reducing its holdings of US Treasuries to prevent the renminbi depreciating further. In the background stands Mr Trump, y to repeat accusations that China has been deliberately weakening the renminbi for competitive gain.20161月,中国央行(PBoC)消耗了700亿美元外汇储备,减持了美国国债,以阻止人民币进一步贬值。特朗普则站在背景中,准备重复他的指责:中国一直在故意削弱人民币汇率,以获得竞争好处。“There is a reasonable chance China will rethink its currency policy,says Mr Derrick. “It must be galling to be spending bn and at the same time to be called a currency manipulator. How that plays out next year will be fascinating.”“中国有合理机会反思其汇率政策,”德里克表示,“花00亿美元外汇储备,同时又被称作汇率操纵国,这肯定令人难堪017年这方面的事态将如何发展,将是一件扣人心弦的事。”来 /201701/487468A new Pentagon report concludes that North Korea ;is committed to developing a long-range, nuclear-armed missile that is capable of posing a direct threat to the ed States.;五角大楼最新出炉的报告显示,朝鲜“正致力于研发远程核导弹,这会对美国造成直接威胁”。The report, required by law, updates Congress regularly on the status of and changes in North Koreas military capabilities.根据相关法律要求,这份报告需要定期向美国国会更新朝鲜军事能力的现状和改变。While the report, released Friday, was written prior to Pyongyangs recent nuclear test and satellite launch, it underscores the regimes devotion of large amounts of funding to modernizing its military forces and weapons arsenals.这份报告于周五发布,是在平壤最近的核试验和卫星发射之前写的。报告中写道,朝鲜当局动用大笔资金来使其军事力量和武器库进行现代化发展。The report also singles out North Koreas Special Operations forces. It calls them ;among the most highly trained, well-equipped, best fed and highly motivated; forces in North Korean leader Kim Jung Uns military.此外,这份报告还专门提到了朝鲜的特种部队。报告指出其是朝鲜领导人金正恩所拥有的“最训练有素,最装备精良,享用最好的资源并且士气高昂的”军事力量。North Koreas Special Operations forces ;operate in specialized units, including reconnaissance, airborne and seaborne insertion, commandos and other specialties,; the report finds.报告中指出,朝鲜特种部队是“专门针对特种作战设计的,包括侦查,空中和海上的插入作战,突击以及其他特种作战”。Defense Secretary Ash Carter discussed concerns about North Koreas military last week in Washington. ;Every single day we are watching that DMZ,; he said, referring to the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea. There are about 27,000 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea.美国国防部长艾什·卡特上周在华盛顿就朝鲜的军事方面的顾虑进行了讨论。“我们每一天都在盯着非军事区。”他说。他指的非军事区是朝鲜和韩国之间的地带。在韩国领域驻扎了大7000名美军。In recent testimony to Congress, CIA Director John Brennan referred to Kims interested in demonstrating his nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile capacity to the world. ;He wants to showcase (this capacity) as a way to demonstrate his strength, but also as a way to help to market some of his proliferation capabilities,; he said.在最近的国会听会上,中情局局长约翰·布伦南专门提到了金正恩非常乐于展示他的核武器以及能打到世界各地的洲际弹道导弹。“他想要通过展示(这种军事能力)来显示他的强大,同时对推销他影响力的扩散大有帮助。”他说。来 /201602/426402North Korea says it has detained a U.S. student on suspicion of carrying out an unspecified ;hostile act against the state.;朝鲜说,他们拘留了一名美国学生,因为他涉嫌从事针对朝鲜的敌对活动,但是没有具体说明是什么活动。The Korean Central News Agency says the student, identified as Otto Frederick Warmbier from the University of Virginia, entered North Korea as a tourist with the aim ;to destroy the countrys unity.;朝中社的报道说,这名学生是来自维吉尼亚大学的奥托·弗里德里克·沃姆比尔,他以旅游者身份进入朝鲜,意图破坏朝鲜的团结。KCNA did not lay out the students alleged crimes, but said his acts were ;tolerated and manipulated by the U.S. government.; It did not elaborate, but said an investigation was under way.朝中社没有具体说明这名学生被控的罪行,但表示他的行动得到了“美国政府的纵容和操纵”,报道没有进一步说明,但声称目前正在进行调查。According to his LinkedIn page, Warmbier is an undergraduate student at the University of Virginia where he is studying economics and global sustainability.沃姆比尔的领英(LinkedIn)网页显示,他是维吉尼亚大学的本科生,专业是经济学和全球持续性发展。He was arrested on January 2 while on a tour of North Korea arranged by Young Pioneer Tours, according to the Reuters news agency. The tour company said it was doing ;all we can; to secure Warmbiers release.路透社说,沃姆比尔是在参加 “青年志愿者之旅”的活动去朝鲜旅游期间,日被拘留的。旅游公司说,他们正在尽全力争取沃姆比尔获释。Reuters also ed an official at the U.S. embassy in Seoul as saying Washington was aware of the reports of the arrest.路透社还援引美国驻首尔大使馆一名官员的话说,华盛顿了解有关沃姆比尔被捕的消息。来 /201602/424974

Thousands of people held candlelight vigils in several major cities across the U.S. Sunday night for the 50 people shot dead in the worst mass killing in U.S. history.在美国各地的几大主要城市,成千上万人星期日晚间举行烛光守夜仪式,哀悼美国历史上最惨重的一次击案0名死难者。Twenty-nine-year-old Omar Saddiqui Mateen -- an American born to Afghan parents -- opened fire in the Pulse nightclub in downtown Orlando, Florida early Sunday morning. Fifty people died. Fifty-three people were wounded, some of them gravely.星期日凌晨,29岁的奥马尔·萨迪奇·马丁在佛罗里达州城市奥兰多的“脉搏”夜总会开行凶,打死50人,53人受伤,其中一些人伤势严重。凶手出生在美国,父母是阿富汗人。The nightclub catered to a primarily gay clientele.这家夜总会的顾客主要是同性恋者。Vigils for the shooting victims were held in Orlando itself, as well as in Boston, Chicago, New York, San Francisco and Washington.除奥兰多外,波士顿、芝加哥、纽约、旧金山和华盛顿也都举行了守夜仪式。In Manhattan, lights on the iconic Empire State Building were turned off in sympathy for the victims. Meanwhile, the spire at One World Trade Center - near the site of the worst terrorist attack on U.S. soil - was lit in rainbow colors, the symbol of gay pride.在曼哈顿,帝国大厦熄灭灯火,以示对遇害者的哀悼。与此同时,世贸中心一号大楼亮起虹灯饰,这是同性恋者骄傲的象征。President Barack Obama ordered U.S. flags to be flown at half-staff in memory of the victims.奥巴马总统下令美国降半旗,向奥兰多击案的死难者致哀。Obama declared it an act of terrorism and said the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is leading the investigation. He said no effort will be spared to find out what inspired the killer or if he had any links to terrorist groups.奥巴马宣布,这是一起恐怖主义行动,并表示美国联邦调查局正在领导调查工作。他说,美国将全力以赴,弄清是什么鼓动了那个杀手,以及他是否和恐怖组织有联系。The grim president again addressed a stunned nation from the White House, saying it is easy for someone to get his hands on a weapon to shoot people in schools, churches, movie theaters and nightclubs. ;We have to decide if thats the kind of country we want to be. And to actively do nothing is a decision as well.;奥巴马神情严肃地在白宫发表讲话,告诉全国上下因此受到震惊的美国人民说,有人可以轻易得到武器,在学校、教堂、电影院和夜总会杀人。奥巴马说:“我们必须决定这是不是我们所要居住的那种国家,而不作为,也是一种决定。”Secretary of Defense Ash Carter said, ;If investigators conclude this was an act of terror directed or inspired by ISIL (Islamic State), it will only steel our resolve to defeat this depraved enemy, prevent the sp of its hateful ideology, and defend our people.;美国国防部长卡特说:“如果调查显示这是一起受到伊斯兰国的指使或煽动的恐怖行动,就更坚定了我们击败伊斯兰囀?遏制其有害意识形态蔓延以及保护美国人民的决心。”Mateens former wife said her ex-husband was bipolor. ;He was mentally unstable and mentally ill.;凶手的前妻对记者说,他具有双重人格,精神上有问题。来 /201606/449080

Fidel Castro would rather have been born in a bigger country than Cuba. 菲德卡斯特罗(Fidel Castro)希望自己出生在一个比古巴更大的国家。He knew Cuba’s economy would remain insignificant but he figured out how to make Cuba and himself noticed. 他知道古巴经济无论怎样发展都无足轻重,但他清楚如何让古巴和自己引起注意。No one man has shaped a country in modern times like Fidel. 当今时代,没有一个人在塑造一个国家方面赶得上菲德尔。When he said ‘this time the revolution is for real he meant it. 当他说这一次革命是当真的时,他真的是那个意思。All that was in 1959. 这一切都发生959年。Now Cuba has lost its most famous son.如今,古巴失去了最出名的孩子。The difference is that Fidel, his ideas and methods stayed around for more than 50 years. 差别在于,菲德尔、他的思想和道路延续了50多年。Unlike Nelson Mandela, he never stepped down to give others a chance. 和纳尔曼德Nelson Mandela)不同,他从未卸下权力把机会留给别人。And in the past decade his brother Raúl has been left to try to make Fidel’s system work in the 21st century. 过去10年,他的弟弟劳尔(Raúl)受命尝试让菲德尔留下的制度在21世纪继续运转。For Cubans, Fidel was how they learnt the alphabet F for Fidel, Y for Yanqui. 对古巴人来说,菲德尔是他们最先学会的字母——F代表菲德尔,Y代表美国Yanqui)。He was how they thought, how they saw the outside world and how they earned their living. 他们如何思考、如何观察外部世界、如何谋生,都要通过菲德尔。His government made them dependent because they all worked for it. 他的政府让人们变得依赖,因为他们全都为政府工作。It was Fidel or nothing. 要么拥护菲德尔,要么一无所有。Socialism or Death. 要么选择社会主义,要么选择死亡。He never suggested he would ask the people what they wanted. 他从未提出他会问古巴人民想要什么。He told them and they believed. 他说什么,他们就得相信什么。Now it is not clear what the ‘oris for Cuba. 现在不清楚古巴的另一种选择是什么。Fidel proved a small country could stand up to its big neighbour and make a difference in sping an ideology that offered hope to the poor. 卡斯特罗明了,一个小国可以对抗强大的邻国,可以在传播给予穷人希望的意识形态方面有所作为。The leaders attending his funeral will show that many still remember those days. 出席卡斯特罗葬礼的各国领导人将明,许多人仍然记得那些日子。His imagination was matched by his ruthlessness. 他的冷酷无情和想象力一样突出。Just as he improved life for the poor and illiterate, he ruined the lives of many other Cubans who had something to lose. 在改善了穷人、文盲的生活水平之际,他也毁掉了其他许多有点资产的古巴人的生活。Their choice was to accept repression or leave many did. 他们只能选择接受压制或是离去——许多人选择离开。And Fidel’s major problem was that he never engineered a national economy prosperous enough to provide for his big plans. 卡斯特罗的主要问题在于,他从未使古巴国民经济繁荣到足以实现他的宏大计划。He used other countriesmoney to fund his revolution, first the Soviet Union, and latterly Venezuela. 他利用别国的资金为自己的革命买单——首先是苏联,近年是委内瑞拉。He used the US embargo to garner international sympathy. 他利用美国对古巴的贸易禁运取国际同情。So the question now about the ‘oris where does the money come from? 因此,现在关于古巴的另一种选择的问题是,未来钱从哪里来?Cuba in 2016 offers little of the freshness and ambition that filled the air in 1959. 2016年的古巴早已没有959年那种弥漫全国的生机和雄心。Though Cuba’s education and healthcare are still widely admired in the developing world, Fidel has bequeathed a country that is not projecting a clear vision. 虽然古巴的教育和医疗仍受到发展中世界的广泛敬佩,但卡斯特罗留下的是一个不能投射清晰愿景的国家。Its main earners of foreign currency are tourism, medical services and remittances from families mainly in the US. 古巴获取外汇主要依靠旅游、医疗务以及主要旅居美国的古巴人给家人的汇款。That is not enough to fund socialist largesse. 这不足以撑慷慨的社会主义事业。And the only alternative seems to be a dismantling of some revolutionary controls, promoting foreign investment and the private sector to allow ordinary Cubans to get rich and build their lives. 唯一的出路似乎在于解除部分革命控制措施,推动外商投资和私营部门,允许普通古巴人致富,打造自己的美好人生。Fidel always knew this would lessen their dependence on the government. 菲德尔当然知道,这样将减少他们对政府的依赖。Raúl has said there will be no shock therapy in Cuba. 劳尔已表示,古巴不会采取休克疗法。He knows that Fidel’s revolution would perhaps crumble under a scramble to make up for the years of economic decline. 他知道,急于在短时间内扭转多年来的经济衰败,可能让菲德尔的革命毁于一旦。He has vowed to step down in 2018 but that may now be rethought. 他曾誓言018年卸任,但现在或许会重新考虑这一决定。Without Fidel, Raúl could decide that the government’s shackles are holding Cuba back, and accepting new ideas would no longer be an embarrassment. 菲德尔去世后,劳尔可能得出结论:政府的枷锁正在阻碍古巴进步,接受新思想将不再令人尴尬。But the one-party system with thousands of bureaucrats trained to stifle change is not fitted to promote a smooth transition to a new economic rule book. 但是,拥有成千上万依靠扼杀变革为生的官僚的一党制,不适合推进向着新经济模式的平稳过渡。Cuba is not yet Castroless. 古巴尚未实现去卡斯特罗化。Beyond Raúl there are sons, sons-in-law and a daughter, Mariela. 除了劳尔,还有他的儿子、女婿以及女儿玛丽拉(Mariela)。For years to come there will always be the Fidel effect. 菲德尔的影响将在未来延续很多年。Somehow Cuba has to emerge from all that and find new ideas that will not betray the revolution’s legacy. 古巴必须设法摆脱这一切,同时找到不会背叛革命遗产的新思想。Fidel detested the Chinese model and Raúl has not accepted that it is good for Cuba and for ordinary Cubans to get rich. 菲德尔不喜欢中国模式,劳尔也并未认可中国模式对古巴及普通古巴人致富有好处。But without Fidel, Cuba will be less likely to be given a free pass with other countries. 但菲德尔去世后,其他国家将不太可能再让古巴搭便车。Cuba will lose its allure and will have to talk the international language of business. 古巴将失去吸引力,不得不学会用国际商业语言商谈。Fidel has left a country trying to disentangle itself from its over-dependence on Venezuela and use the new US relationship to help revive its economy. 菲德尔留下的古巴,正尝试摆脱对委内瑞拉的过度依赖,并利用与美国新建立的关系帮助重振国内经济。He opposed both of these options. 对于这两个选项,菲德尔生前都表示反对。Now Donald Trump, despite the widesp popularity of the Obama measures, seems keen to undo the Obama effect and side with Fidel. 如今,虽然奥巴马政府的措施受到了广泛欢迎,但唐纳特朗Donald Trump)似乎热衷于逆转奥巴马的政策,站在菲德尔一边。Just when Cuba has a chance to move ahead a familiar scenario looms. 就在古巴有机会向前迈进之际,熟悉的一幕正在浮出水面。Fidel would have been amused and perhaps rather pleased.菲德尔对此应会感到好笑,或许还会相当高兴。来 /201611/480549

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