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The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve is no longer expected to announce a further round of monetary easing when it concludes its two-day meeting in Washington next week. The fact that the hawks have lost enthusiasm for more quantitative easing is scarcely surprising, given the fall in unemployment, and the stickiness of inflation.美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)本周将在华盛顿召开为期两天的会议,人们不再预计FOMC将在会议结束时公布新一轮的货币宽松举措。鉴于失业率的下滑以及通胀粘性,鹰派人物对出台更多定量宽松政策(QE)失去热情的事实已在人们的意料之中。But until very recently the hawks have not been in control of the committee. What is more surprising is that the powerful group of doves, which includes Ben Bernanke, Bill Dudley and Janet Yellen, and which normally has disproportionate weight on the FOMC, has also taken QE off the agenda .但直到最近,鹰派才在FOMC中占据了上风。令人更感意外的是,强大的鸽派阵营同样也将QE从议程上撤了下来。包括本#8226;伯南克(Ben Bernanke)、比尔#8226;达德利(Bill Dudley)和珍妮特#8226;耶伦(Janet Yellen)在内的鸽派往往能够对FOMC产生非同一般的影响。So is that the end of QE? Not necessarily. The doves seem to have changed their policy conclusion without changing their basic view of the economy. In recent speeches, they have all repeated that the current unemployment rate of 8.2 per cent will remain two to three percentage points above the level consistent with the Fed’s mandate for some time. This judgment depends on their interpretation of the work of three distinguished economists: Arthur Okun (1928-80), William Beveridge (1879-1963) and John Taylor (who is still alive and kicking at Stanford University).QE这样就算寿终正寝了吗?未必如此。鸽派虽然改变了他们的政策意见,但他们对于经济的基本看法却似乎仍和往常一样。他们在近日的讲话中无一例外地重申,目前8.2%的失业率仍比美联储达到使命所应具有的水平高出二至三个百分点。这一论断是依据他们对三位杰出经济学家的成果所进行的解读。这三人分别是:阿瑟#8226;奥肯(Arthur Okun,1928-80年)、威廉#8226;贝弗里奇(William Beveridge,1879-1963年)和约翰#8226;泰勒(John Taylor,目前在斯坦福大学任教)。First, Okun’s Law. This describes the relationship between real gross domestic product growth and unemployment, which is reasonably stable over long periods. This stability broke down last year, with unemployment falling much more than it “should” have done, given the reported growth of real GDP. One possible, hawkish, interpretation could be that real GDP growth has been underestimated. But the doves argue that the unexpected drop in unemployment was just a reversal of the abnormally large shake-out of labour by employers in 2009. If this is correct, then unemployment will stop falling soon, unless GDP growth picks up significantly.先来看看奥肯定律。它描述了实际国内生产总值(GDP)增速与失业率之间的关系,这种关系从长期来看具有相当的稳定性。而这种稳定在去年被打破,相对于官方公布的实际GDP增速而言,失业率的下滑程度大大超过了它“应该”下滑的程度。鹰派可能给出的一种解释是,实际GDP增速被低估了。而鸽派则认为,失业率的意外下滑只不过是对用工者2009年疯狂裁员的一次逆转。如果的确如此,那么除非GDP增速大幅提高,否则,失业率很快便会停止下滑。Second, the Beveridge Curve. This describes the normally inverse relationship between unemployment and unfilled vacancies in the labour market. Higher vacancies should imply lower unemployment but in the past three years there has been a much larger rise in vacancies than would have been implied by the level of unemployment. The hawkish interpretation of this rise in unfilled jobs is that there is a mismatch between the skills and location of the unemployed, compared with the nature of the new jobs being created in the economy. If so, structural unemployment has risen, leaving less scope for monetary accommodation.再来看贝弗里奇曲线。它描述了失业率与劳动力市场上的空缺职位通常成反比的关系。空缺职位增加意味着失业率应该会下滑,但过去三年中,空缺职位增加的数量远远超过了根据失业率水平所应推导出的数量。对于空缺职位的增加,鹰派给出的解释是,经济活动会创造出新的就业机会,而与这类岗位的性质相比,失业人群的技能与所在地区之间存在着某种错位。若果真如此,结构性失业已经增加,如此一来,运用货币宽松政策的空间将受到挤压。But the doves argue that this is not the case, saying instead that the Beveridge Curve has broken down for temporary reasons. These include the extension in the maximum duration of unemployment benefits and delays between the rise in vacancies and the subsequent decline in unemployment. For these reasons, the doves conclude that the level of structural unemployment has not risen.但鸽派人士指出,事实并非如此,贝弗里奇曲线只是因为某些暂时性的原因才失效。这些因素包括政府延长了领取失业救济金的最长期限,以及空缺职位增加与随之出现的失业率下降之间存在着滞后现象。出于这些原因,鸽派得出结论:结构性失业率并未上升。Third, the Taylor Rule. This describes the “appropriate” path for short-term interest rates, given the behaviour of inflation and unemployment, which are the subjects of the Fed’s twin mandates. According to Janet Yellen’s speech on April 11 in New York, John Taylor proposed two versions of his famous “rule”, one in 1993 and the second in 1999. The latter includes a larger role for unemployment in determining the appropriate short rate, while the former gives a bigger role to inflation.最后我们再来看看泰勒规则。它描述了在不同的通胀和失业率(美联储双重使命的对象)环境下,短期利率所应遵循的“适当”走势。根据珍妮特#8226;耶伦4月11日在纽约发表的讲话,约翰#8226;泰勒提出的众所周知的“泰勒规则” 其实有两个版本,分别于1993年和1999年时提出。在后一个版本中,泰勒认为制定适宜的短期利率时,应更多地考虑失业率,而前一个版本则认为通胀应该受到更多的重视。Ms Yellen prefers the 1999 rule, which has more dovish implications when unemployment is high, as it is today. She calculates that, on this version of the rule, short rates should stay at zero until the end of 2014, as implied in the Fed’s latest policy announcements. She also reckons that monetary policy has been too tight since 2008, because quantitative easing has not been powerful enough to allow for the fact that short rates could not be reduced below zero. In compensation for this, she argues that monetary policy should be kept easier for longer than the 1999 Taylor Rule implies.耶伦更认同1999年的版本,当失业率高企时(就像今天这样),它更具有鸽派的意味。耶伦推断,按照1999年版的泰勒规则,到2014年底之前,短期利率应该一直维持在零区间,这正是美联储在最新的政策声明中所阐述的观点。她还认为,自2008年之后采取的货币政策过于紧缩,因为定量宽松的力度不够,未能考虑到短期利率不可能为负的情况。作为补救措施,她认为宽松货币政策保持的时间应该比1999年版泰勒规则所要求的更长。John Taylor has denied Ms Yellen’s claim that he ever proposed the 1999 version of his rule, saying that it was an idea that emerged from the Fed itself. And anyway he strongly prefers the 1993 version, which has the hawkish implication that short rates should aly be positive and should certainly be rising by 2013. But the doves see things differently.约翰#8226;泰勒否认了耶伦的说法,称他从未提出过所谓1999年版的泰勒规则,这只是美联储自身的想法。他极力持1993年的版本。该版本的观点带有鹰派色,认为短期利率应该为正,且在2013年以前必须保持升势。而鸽派人士却有着不同的看法。Given the doves’ determination to interpret these key issues in the direction of highly accommodative policy, it is hard to explain why they have shelved their desire to introduce another bout of QE. To judge from their underlying economic rationale, they are probably just biding their time while inflation is somewhat above target, and will seek to bring easing back on the agenda as soon as they can.鉴于鸽派一心想沿着极度宽松的方向去解读这些关键性问题,因此,很难理解他们为何会搁置推出新一轮QE的想法。从他们的根本经济主张来看,在通胀水平略高于目标的情况下,他们或许只是在等待时机,一旦时机成熟,他们会尽快将宽松政策重新提上议事日程。Gavyn Davies is co-founder of Fulcrum Asset Management and Prisma Capital Partners, and writes a regular blog on macroeconomics at ft.com本文作者是Fulcrum资产管理公司和Prisma Capital Partners的创始人之一,定期在ft.com上撰写有关宏观经济的客。译者:薛磊 /201204/179127

Those looking for greater happiness and satisfaction in life should head to northern Europe, but steer clear of Egypt and countries worst hit by the eurozone crisis, according to the 2013 World Happiness Report released Monday by Columbia University#39;s Earth Institute.美国哥伦比亚大学地球研究所周一发布的《2013全球幸福指数报告》显示,那些追寻快乐和幸福的人应该到北欧去,但得避开埃及以及那些受到欧元危机影响的国家。Denmark, Norway, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Sweden are the world#39;s happiest countries, according to the survey of 156 countries. Rwanda, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Benin and Togo -- all nations in Sub-Saharan Africa -- are the least satisfied with their lives, the report said. China ranks 93rd in the list.该报告调研了156个国家,结果显示,丹麦、挪威、瑞士、荷兰和瑞典是幸福指数最高的前5个国家。而撒哈拉以南非洲的大部分国家——卢旺达,布隆迪,中非共和国,贝宁和多哥等则被该报告评为幸福指数最低的几个国家。中国列第93位。Life#39;s ups and downs生活的起起落落The global survey was conducted between 2010 and 2012 and follows the Earth Institute#39;s first rankings released last year. While ;the world has become a slightly happier and more generous place over the past five years,; economic and political upheavals have resulted in greatly reduced levels of well being for some nations, the report said.紧接着地球研究所上一年的榜单,整个全球调查跨越2010到2012。尽管“在过去的五年间,整个世界变得更快乐,更慷慨了一点,” 但在另一些国家,由于经济或政治上的动荡,人民的幸福感却大幅降低。Rankings for Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain fell dramatically because of the impact of the eurozone crisis, while Egypt, Myanmar and Saudi Arabia registered large falls in the wake of recent political and civil turmoil.由于欧元危机的影响,希腊,意大利,葡萄牙以及西班牙的排名大幅下滑。然而下滑幅度最大的是由于近期的政治危机影响的埃及,缅甸,和沙特阿拉伯。Angola, Zimbabwe and Albania experienced the largest increases across all the countries surveyed. ;On a regional basis, by far the largest gains in life evaluations in terms of the prevalence and size of the increases have been in Latin America and the Caribbean, and in Sub-Saharan Africa;, the report said. Reduced levels of corruption also contributed to the rise.安哥拉,津巴布韦,和阿尔巴尼亚的排名在所有国家中上升幅度最大。“从广度和深度上来讲,拉丁美洲,加勒比地区,以及撒哈拉以南非洲等地域的国家,人民幸福感提高比较大。腐败的减少也是提高幸福感的一个很重要的原因。”;People can be unhappy for many reasons -- from poverty to unemployment to family breakdown to physical illness,; the report said. ;But in any particular society, chronic mental illness is a highly influential cause of misery. If we want a happier world, we need a completely new deal on mental health.;“让人们感到不幸福的原因有很多——从贫穷,失业,家庭破碎到身体伤害” 报告声称,“但在一些特定的社会中,慢性的精神性疾病却是幸福的‘头号杀手’。如果我们想要一个更加幸福的世界,我们需要花更多努力来关心人们的心理健康。”Gross National Happiness国家整体的幸福感The 2013 World Happiness Report comes on the back of a growing global movement calling for governments and policy makers to reduce their emphasis on achieving economic growth and focus on policies that can improve people#39;s overall well-being.《2013全球幸福指数报告》出台的背景是,现在的人们要求政府和政策制定者能够少关心经济的增长,而花更多的精力在提高国民的幸福感上。The report said.;It is important to balance economic measures of societal progress with measures of subjective well-being to ensure that economic progress leads to broad improvements across life domains, not just greater economic capacity,; the report said.“学会让经济指标和人民主观的幸福感同步发展是很重要的,因为我们应该不仅仅是追求更强的经济能力,而应追求提高各个领域生活质量。”报告总结道。 /201309/256536

MOVIEGOERS packed cinemas across China yesterday for the first public screenings of a film that explores a painful topic for the nation - famine.昨天影迷为一部首次公开放映的电影涌入中国各大影院,探索这个国家的一个沉重话题- - -饥荒。;Back To 1942,; directed by Feng Xiaogang, focuses on a drought which killed 3 million people in central China#39;s Henan Province.《1942年》,冯小刚执导,主要讲诉一场在中国中部的河南省造成300万人死亡的大干旱。The morning showings left some members of the audience, many of whom were elderly, visibly upset.早晨的放映让一些观众,其中许多是年长者,看起来十分烦恼。;The movie is very heavy and truthful, it reminds me of many scenes from my life,; said 75-year-old Chen Mingya in Zhengzhou, Henan#39;s capital.“这部电影非常沉重、真实,它让我想起了自己生活中的许多场景,”在河南省会郑州的75岁陈明亚说。The film tells the story of refugees who fled their hometowns in search of food, a situation made worse by the Japanese invasion and a dysfunctional Nationalist government. Many starved to death on the grueling journey to nearby Shaanxi Province.这部电影讲述了一群难民逃离家乡寻找食物的故事,由于日本侵略和民族主义政府的失职使情况变得更糟。许多人在临近陕西省的路上饿死。;People lost their dignity,; said Feng#39;s wife Xu Fan, who plays a farmer who sold herself for a handful of millet to feed her children.“人们失去了他们的尊严,”冯的妻子徐帆说,饰演一位为了一把小米来养活她的孩子而将自己卖了的农民。The younger generation may be unfamiliar with the period, but it had left a scar in the memories of the middle-aged and elderly. ;Our nation is characterized by tremendous sufferings in history. To know where we come from helps us understand where we should go,; Feng said in Shanghai.年轻一代可能不熟悉这段时期,但它已经在老年人的记忆中留下了疤痕。“我们的国家拥有多灾多难的历史。知道我们从何而来能帮助我们理解我们应该到哪里去,”冯在上海说道。;Hunger can make people do crazy things,; said Yu Baoyou, a 51-year-old resident of Henan#39;s Zhumadian.“饥饿可以让人们做一些疯狂的事情,”徐保佑说,河南驻马店的一位51岁的居民。Yu recalled how villagers jumped into floodwater to catch dead cattle and rotten vegetables after a dam burst in 1975 killed more than 26,000 people and left many others without food.徐回忆起1975年爆裂的大坝造成26000多人死亡也使得许多其他人没有食物之后,村民如何跳进洪水里捕捉死牛和腐烂的蔬菜。Sociologists say discussions about hunger are still important today. ;China still has a long way to go in the battle against poverty and starvation, and should always remember the bitter lesson of its hunger history,; Zhang Youde said.社会学家说今天讨论饥饿仍然是重要的。“中国在消除贫困和饥饿方面仍有很长的路要走,而且应该永远记住这个饥荒史上的惨痛教训,”张佑德说。 /201211/211553


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