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武汉市协和医院治疗龟头炎多少钱武汉汉南区治疗包皮包茎哪家医院最好Have you ever gone to the store just for milk, but walked out with eight sale-priced cans ofsomething youd never tasted and eight candy bars?你是否亲身经历过下面的情况:走进超市时的你只是想买一瓶牛奶,但当你离开时,手上拿着八罐你从未尝过的打折商品,以及八条糖果。How does that happen?怎么会这样呢?Brian Wansink and colleagues have studied how people make decisions in stores.伊利诺斯大学食品与商标研究所的布莱恩·万斯克士研究了人们在商场里是如何作出购买决定的。The results areinteresting not only for merchandisers hoping to increase sales, but customers trying to resistthe temptation.研究结果无论是对想提高营业额的商家,还是对想要抵抗诱惑的消费者来说都十分有趣。One way stores increase sales is that standby of merchandising, the multiple unit price.商场提升营业额的一种方法就是备用促销,即多件商品组合标价。Thatswhen a sign lists the price for several items, instead of one, say,4 cans for .该销售模式下,一个标签上会有多件商品的总价,比如说4美元4罐。Of course, youcould buy one, but its hard to resist the suggestion to buy more.你当然可以只买一罐,但你很难抵抗再多买一点的心理暗示。Wansink found that multipleunit pricing increased sales by almost a third.万斯克士发现该销售策略能使营业额提高近三分之一。Heres an even more astounding technique.还有一种更令人张口结舌的方法。When Wansink put up a sign that said,Buy Snickers Bars for your Freezer, people tended to buy one.万斯克士首先打出一条标语:为您的冰箱添置一些士力架吧!这时人们往往会买一条。Next though, he changed the sign to ,Buy 18 Snickers Bars for Your Freezer.然而接下来他将标语换成为您的冰箱添置18条士力架吧!It probably sounded ridiculous to customers too, but they tripled their purchases to three candy bars, on average.这也许对顾客而言,也荒谬不已,但顾客们的平均购买量却增加到三根。The limit sign is another trick of the numbers that increases sales, even though stores usuallyintend it to do just the opposite.而限制购买的标语则是商场增加营业额的另一个常用伎俩,尽管商家的本意是完全与之相反的。Lets say soup is marked way down, to bring in customers.比如,商场正通过大幅调低汤罐头价格以招徕顾客。The addition of a sign limiting purchase to 12 cans had a dramatic effect in Wansinks study, increasingsales by 112%!而万斯克的研究发现,一条限购12罐的标语能起到惊人的作用:使营业额激增112%!To resist the power of supermarket suggestion, write a grocery list at home, including how muchyou need.如果你想抵抗超市的心理暗示的话,最好在家中就列好购物单,包括你所需要的。At the store, remember how the numbers games work!当你在超市里时,千万记住商家们是如何玩弄数字游戏的。 /201404/283745武汉总院人民医院男科大夫 Its eleven oclock Sunday morning, and youve just woken up after a late night of carousing.现在是周日上午11点,而你刚从前一晚的狂欢过后醒来。You stumble out of bed, brace yourself on the bathroom sink and blink into the mirror.你跌跌撞撞地走下床,双手撑在盥洗台上,睡眼惺忪地看向镜子。There, under your eyes, are dark, puffy patches that make you look like an NFL linebacker.看到了吗,你眼睛下面那深色浮肿的眼袋,让你看起来像美国橄榄球联盟的后卫队员。I need more sleep, you think, fingering the dark spots. And so you stumble back to bed.用手抚摸着黑眼袋,你想,我需要更多的睡眠。于是你又踉跄着回到床上。You may indeed need to sleep a bit longer, but despite the common misconception, dark circlesand puffiness under or around your eyes appear to have little to do with lack of sleep.也许你的确需要多睡一会儿,尽管有着普遍的误解,但眼周或眼底的黑眼圈和浮肿似乎与睡眠不足没有太大的关系。In fact, what seems to be a fairly common and hence supposedly explainable phenomenon remains something of a mystery to scientists.事实上,这个看起来相当容易解释的常见现象对科学家们来说却仍然是个谜。What scientists do know is that the skin under the eyes is very thin and sensitive.科学家们所知道的是,眼底的皮肤非常薄,非常敏感。When for avariety of reasons blood and other fluids accumulate in the area under your eyes, the delicacy ofthe skin makes the fluids color partly visible.当由于种种原因,血液和其他液体在眼底部位积聚时,这层细腻的皮肤就会使得液体的颜色浮现出来。This is what appears to account for the dark patches.这似乎才是黑眼圈形成的原因。Allergies may also be to blame.过敏也是可能的原因之一。An allergic reaction can cause cells under the skin of the eyes torelease histamine, a chemical that causes fluid accumulation and swelling.过敏反应导致眼底皮肤细胞释放出组胺,这种化学物质会引起积液和皮肤肿胀。This is what appears tocause puffy eyes.这似乎才是眼袋形成的原因。And finally, there is heredity.最后还有遗传因素的影响。Do your parents have dark circles under their eyes?你的父母是否有黑眼圈?If so, you mayhave found the source for your own dark circles.如果有,也许你就能够找到你有黑眼圈的原因。 201402/277303武汉权威男科

武汉男性生殖器武汉前列腺炎 Finance and Economics;Equity markets;Shares and shibboleths;财经;股票市场;股票与市场准则;How much should people get paid for investing in the stockmarket?人们在股票市场上的投资应该得到多少回报?If there is a sacred belief among investors, it is that equities are the best asset for the long run. Buy a diversified portfolio, be patient and rewards will come. Holding cash or government bonds may offer safety in the short term but leaves the investor at risk from inflation over longer periods.如果说投资者心中有个神圣的信念的话,那就是他们认为从长远来看股票是最好的资产。买一个多元化投资组合,课以时日,就会得到回报。持有现金或政府债券在短期内也许更保险,但从长期来看它会让投资者面临通胀的风险。Such beliefs sit oddly with the performance of the Tokyo stockmarket, which peaked at the end of 1989 and is still 75% below its high. Over the 30 years ending in 2010, a “long run” by any standards, American equities beat government bonds by less than a percentage point a year.这种信念却神奇地与东京股票市场的表现相吻合,该股票市场在1989年末达到最高值,并且现在仍然是其1989年最高值的75%。从1970年到2010年这30年间,依据人们所谓“长期”的标准,美国政府债券年回报都比股票要少一个百分点。In the developed world, the period since the turn of the millennium has been a particular disappointment. Since the end of 1999 the return on American equities has been 7.6 percentage points a year lower than that on government bonds (see chart 1). That has left many corporate and public pension funds in deficit and many people with private pensions facing a delayed, or poorer, retirement. Understanding why equities have let investors down over the past decade will help them work out what to expect in the future.在发达国家,自进入千禧年以来,股市令人特别失望。自从1999年年末起,美国股票回报为7.6个百分点,低于政府债券的回报。这导致许多企业和公共养老基金出现赤字而且许多私募养老金面临要么延期发放,要么发得更少,要么退休的境地。理解为什么股票在过去的十年间让投资者失望将有助于他们认识到对未来股市的期望是什么。The long-term faith in equities is based on the theory that investors should be rewarded for the riskiness of shares with a higher return, known as the “equity risk premium” (ERP)。 That risk comes in two forms. The first is that shareholders get paid only when other claimants on a company’s cashflow, such as workers, the taxman and creditors, have received their due. Profits and dividends are thus highly variable and can disappear altogether when times get tough. The second risk is that share prices are volatile, more so than bond prices. Since 1926 there have been seven calendar years when American equity investors have suffered a loss of more than 20%; investors in Treasuries have suffered no such calamitous years.对股票的长期信心是基于这样一个理论,投资者在投资有风险的股票时应该得到高额回报,即股票风险溢价(ERP)。股票风险源于两个方面。第一种是只有当掌控一个公司资金流转的人,如工人,税务稽查员和债权人的得到他们应得的收益后,最后股东才能得到回报。因此对于股东来说,利润和股息都有很大的不确定性,当经济萧条时二者都有可能亏空。第二种风险是与政府债券相比,股票价格是多变的。自1926年以来,美国的股票投资者承受了超过20%的损失,这种情况持续了七年。政府债券投资者从没遭遇过这样的悲惨时期。The big question, however, is how large that extra return should be. Here it is important to distinguish between the extra return investors actually achieved for holding equities (what could be called the ex post number) and the return they expected to achieve when they bought them (the ex ante figure). Academics started to focus on this problem in the mid-1980s when a paper by Rajnish Mehra and Edward Prescott indicated that the ex post return of American equity investors had been remarkably high, at around seven percentage points a year. It seems unlikely that investors expected to do so well.然而,最大问题是股票投资者得到的额外收益有多高才合理?区分额外收益投资者实际能从他们所持有的股票(即事后估计值)得到的回报以及当他们买入股票时期望得到的回报(即事前估计值)是至关重要的。从20世纪80年代中期学术界就开始关注这个问题。那时Rajnish Mehra 和 Edward Prescott就在论文中指出美国股票投资者的事后估计值总是出奇地高,每年约有7个百分点。似乎投资者预期不可能有这么高。Premium puzzle溢价之谜There are a number of possible explanations for these very high ex post returns. One is survivorship bias in the numbers. America, which is the benchmark for ERP measurements, turned out to be the most successful economy of the 20th century, but it might not have been. Before the first world war investors doubtless had high hopes for Argentina, China or Russia—only to be disappointed.对于如此高额的事后估计收益有种种解释。一种是幸存者偏差。作为股票风险溢价测量方法的基准的美国,被明是20世纪最成功的经济体,但这一切已经不复存在。在第一次世界大战之前对阿根廷,中国或俄罗斯抱很大希望的投资者没想到会失望。Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of the London Business School (LBS) have analysed the data for 19 countries from 1900 to 2011 and found that the ERP relative to Treasury bills (short-term government debt) ranged from just over two-and-a-half percentage points a year in Denmark to six-and-a-half points in Australia. They found a premium for America of five percentage points.伦敦商学院的Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh和Mike Staunton对19个国家从1900年到2011年的数据进行分析后发现,股票风险溢价相对于短期无息国库券(短期政府债务)相比的收益范围从丹麦的每年2.5个百分点到澳大利亚的每年6.5个百分点不等。美国的溢价是5个百分点。Another explanation for the high returns is a paradoxical one: that equities have become less risky. In the early part of the 20th century corporate accounts were more opaque and less reliable (though shareholders in Enron, a bust energy company, may disagree). Most stocks were owned by private investors with only a handful of individual shares. This left them more exposed to the risk of a single firm failing, which meant they put a lower value on shares—or, to put it another way, they demanded a higher premium for owning them.而另一种对高收益的解释却和第一种相互矛盾:股票的风险在降低。20世纪初期企业账目更加不透明而且可靠程度更低(虽然对于已经破产的能源公司-安然的股东也许不同意这种看法)。大部分股票被那些私人投资者以个人股的形式所持有。这大大增加了单个公司破产给他们带来的风险。也就意味着人们认为股份的价值很低,换而言之,持有这些股份就会有更多的风险溢价。Today most equities are owned by institutional investors who can assemble a diversified portfolio. Even small investors can own an index fund at low cost. The impact of one company failing is thus far smaller. This reduced risk has prompted investors to pay higher prices for shares; in other words, to accept a lower dividend yield. That may well have increased the ex post risk premium (other things being equal, a fall in the dividend yield from 4% to 2% means investors double their money).如今大部分股票被机构投资者所持有。这些投资者以多样化组合进行投资。即使是小投资者也能以较低的成本持有指数基金。这样受某个公司破产的影响也就很小了。风险的降低也促使投资者高价投资股票。换而言之,投资者要接受一个较低的股息收益率。这样也许会增加事后估计风险酬金的增加。(在其它条件相同的情况下,股息收益率从4%跌到2%意味着投资者要投双倍的钱)。The size and persistence of the ERP led some commentators in the late 1990s to come up with an ingenious, if flawed, argument. In their book “Dow 36,000”, for instance, James Glassman and Kevin Hassett argued that the reliable outperformance of shares over bonds meant that equities were not riskier at all. As a result, there need be no ex ante risk premium.股票风险溢价的规模及持续性使得一些时事员在20世纪90年代末提出了一个巧妙而有缺陷的论点。在《道琼斯指数36000点》一书中,James Glassman 和Kevin Hassett认为,股票优于债券的出色表现意味着股票根本没有风险。因此不需要事前风险溢价。This time is not different今非昔比If this belief were correct, equity investors should have been willing to accept a lower earnings yield. (This is the inverse of the price-earnings ratio; if the p/e is 50, the earnings yield is 2%.) In the course of moving to the lower earnings yield, the market would have soared to the 36,000 level of the book’s title. A lower ex ante risk premium implies higher returns in the short term. The authors were proved right in one sense. Investors who bought shares in 1999 did not earn a risk premium. But that will be of scant consolation to those who believed the book, since 13 years later the Dow is at around 13,000, not 36,000.如果这种观点是正确的,股票投资者应该愿意接受较低的盈利收益。(这是逆向市盈率,如果市盈率达到50,那么收益率为2%)。在盈利收益走低的情况下,股票市场一路飙升到书中标题所说的36,000点。较低的事前评价风险溢价往往意味着短期内较高的回报。某种程度上作者的观点被明是正确的。在1999年购买股票的投资者并没赚到风险溢价。但这对那些推崇这本书的人来说,显然缺少安慰。因为13年后,道指仅为13,000点左右,远不是书中所说的36,000点。One obvious problem with their reasoning was that, although equities might have beaten bonds over most long periods, the horizon of the average investor is much shorter. There have been many equity bear markets in history and investors are exposed to the real risk that they will have to sell in the middle of one. Most shares are owned by professional fund managers, who have to report to their clients every three months. If a big bet on equities goes wrong they cannot wait 20 years to be proved right. Clients will have deserted them long before then.按照他们的推断,一个显而易见的问题出现了,尽管在较长的周期内股票的收益可能已经超过了债券,但普通投资者却越来越目光短浅。史上曾出现过多次熊市但投资者们面临的风险是他们不得不在中间价位抛售手中的股票。那些每三个月向他们的客户汇报股市行情的基金经理持有大量股票。如果大笔赌注投在股票上而亏了,用不了他们等待20年来明是正确的,客户早就会把他们抛弃。The late-1990s debate illustrated a familiar pattern at the top of bull markets. When share prices have aly risen a lot, commentators scramble for reasons why they should rise even further. In the 1980s those who queried whether the Japanese stockmarket was expensive on a minimal dividend yield and a sky-high price-earnings ratio were told that “Western valuation methods” did not apply in Tokyo. At the turn of the century many assumed that, because the achieved ERP had been high in the past, it would be so in the future. But investors had their reasoning backwards. When share valuations are high, future returns are likely to be low and vice versa.20世纪90年代末的争论明了牛市见顶的一个熟悉模式。当股价大幅上涨时,时事员东拼西凑各种理由来解释为什么股价上涨甚至会涨得更多。在20世纪80年代那些质疑以极低的股息收益率和极高的市盈率的日本股市是否昂贵的人被告之“西方的计价方法并不适合东京股票市场”。在世纪之交许多假设都认为是这样,因为已经兑现的股票风险溢价在过去收益很高,在未来也是如此。但是投资者自己分析认为这一情况将会改变。当股票价值高涨时,未来的收益就可能偏低。反之亦然。Given the history of the risk premium, what will the future reward for equity investors be? This question is discussed in a new set of papers* issued by the Chartered Financial Analysts Institute. The collection is a follow-up to a similar exercise undertaken in 2001, where the range of estimates of the premium varied from zero to seven percentage points a year.从风险溢价的历史来看,股票投资者未来的收益将会是什么呢?最近由特许金融分析师学会发表的论文中多次讨论到这个问题。论文中收集到的数据是基于2001年发生的相同交易,估计每年的股票溢价范围在0到7个百分点之间。The first step is to define the equity risk premium more exactly. Mssrs Dimson, Marsh and Staunton break it down into the following components: the dividend yield, plus the real dividend growth rate, plus or minus any change in the price/dividend ratio (the inverse of the dividend yield), minus the real risk-free interest rate.第一步是尽可能精确地界定股票风险溢价的范畴。Mssrs Dimson,Marsh和Staunton将股票风险溢价分成以下几个部分:股息收益率加上实际股息成长率,加上或减去价格与股息之比率(股息收益率的倒数)中的变动值,最后再减去实际无风险利率。In the period 1900-2011, the average world dividend yield was 4.1%; real dividend growth was just 0.8%; and the rerating of the market added 0.4%。 That comes to a real equity return of 5.4% (the calculation is geometric, not arithmetic)。 Stripping out the risk-free interest rate, the ERP was 4.4% versus short-term government debt and 3.5% versus longer-term government bonds (see chart 2).从1900年到2011年,世界平均股息收益率为4.1%。实际股息增长率仅为0.8%。加上0.4%的市场重估价值就构成5.4%的实际股票收益。(此计算结果为几何级数算法,未按算数式来计算)。除去无风险利率,与短期政府债券相比,股票风险溢价为4.4%。和长期政府债券相比,股票风险溢价为3.5%。The dividend yield comprised the vast bulk of the return. This was true across all the countries studied by the authors. Had investors consistently bought the highest-yielding quintile of equity markets over the past 112 years they would have earned an average nominal annual return of 13.3% compared with a return of just 5.4% for those buying the lowest-yielding quintile. High-dividend markets have also performed best so far this century.股息收益率包括高额回报。这是作者经过对许多国家的研究后实的。与在收益率最低的15年内投资者在其购买股票后的年收益率仅为5.4%相比,投资者在过去112年中收益率最高的15年内持续购买股票后的平均名义年收益率为13.3%。到本世纪为止,高股息市场的发展最为迅猛。The importance of the dividend yield is ironic, given the lack of focus on the measure in most modern investment commentary. Many analysts argue that the dividend has been superseded by the share buy-back which (particularly in America) is a more tax-efficient way of returning cash to shareholders. But Robert Arnott of Research Affiliates points out that, although buy-backs reduce share capital, companies are also finding ways to add to it. Firms issue shares to pay for acquisitions, for example, or to reward executives through incentive schemes. Historically, net share issuance has been around 2% of total equity capital a year. This dilution of existing shareholders is part of the reason why real dividend growth has been so low, well below GDP growth.股息收益率的重要性却颇具讽刺意味,很多现代投资很少关注如何衡量股息收益率。许多分析家认为,股息已被股票回购所取代(特别是在美国),这是一种向股东返还现金而且更加节税的办法。但是研究机构的Robert Arnott指出,尽管回购会减少股本金,公司仍可以找到办法来增加它。 例如,公司通过发行股份以付收购所需的资金,或通过激励措施来回报高管。从历史上看,一年的净股票发行已经达到总股本的2%左右。为什么真正的股息增长已经如此之低,远远低于GDP的增长,其一部分原因是减少现有股东的持股。As a starting point for estimating the future ERP, this is not encouraging. The current dividend yield on stockmarkets is lower (at 2.7% in the countries covered by the LBS data) than the historical average. Dividends tend to grow (at best) no faster than GDP, and usually slower because of the dilution effect. Nor is there much hope of a boost from a revaluation of the market. Since the yield is low, relative to history, it is more likely that any revaluation will subtract from returns. In another paper, Cliff Asness of AQR Capital, a hedge-fund group, uses his estimates of dividend yield and likely dividend growth to come up with a forecast for future real equity returns in America of around 4% a year.作为估计未来股票风险溢价的起点,这并不让人欢欣鼓舞。股市目前的股息收益率(在LBS数据覆盖的国家,股息收益率为2.7%)低于历史平均水平。在最好的情况下,股息收益率也不如GDP增长快。通常增长缓慢是由于稀释作用的影响。不要对市场的重新评估所带来对股市的推动抱有太大希望。和以往相比,现在的收益率偏低,任何重新评估的推动力很可能从收益中剔除。 AQR资本管理公司(它是对冲基金公司)的Cliff Asness在另一篇文章中,利用他们对股息收益率和可能的股息增长的估计,预测出美国未来每年4%左右实际的股权回报。Future imperfect不太美妙的未来Although this figure is lower than the historical average, it still means that equity investors will earn a risk premium. The real yields on short- and long-term debt are zero, or negative in some cases. Nominal yields are close to historic lows. If the risk-free return is zero, then the entire return from equities will count as a risk premium. And a 4% premium would be only a little below the long-term average for America.尽管这一数据低于历史平均水平,但仍意味着股票投资者能获得风险溢价。短期或长期债券的收益率为零,或在某些情况下是负数。名义收益率接近历史最低水平。如果无风险收益为零,那么全部股票收益将被当作风险溢价。并且4%的溢价仅比美国历史平均水平略低。That still would not be high enough for many pension funds. In America, local-government pension funds base their contributions on the assumption that they will earn 8% (in nominal terms) on their investment portfolios. Treasury bonds yield 2% at the moment, so a 4% risk premium suggests a nominal return of 6% on equities. That means pension funds will fall well short of their targeted return.对于许多养老基金来讲,这4%的溢价仍不算高。在美国,当地政府养老基金是建立在他们在投资组合中将获得8%(名义收益)的收益的假设基础之上的。同期的国债收益为2%,因此4%的风险溢价意味着6%的股权名义回报。这就意味着养老基金远没达到它的目标回报。Pension providers have two options: increase contributions or cut benefits. Cutting benefits will be difficult for many American states since pension rights are legally or constitutionally guaranteed. So taxes will have to go up or other services will have to be cut. Companies that have offered pensions linked to final salaries may have to divert money into their pension schemes, cash that could have been invested to boost the economy. Individuals who rely on private pensions (or on so-called defined-contribution benefits, where the company does not promise a payout) face the same problem.提供养老金的人有两种选择:要么增加捐款,要么削减福利。削减福利对于大部分美国的州来讲非常困难,因为养老金领取权是合法的或者受宪法保障的。所以不得不在税收上削减或者将其它务削减。提供与最终薪金相关的养老金的公司不得不把它们原本投资用来刺激经济的钱转投到养老金计划中。依赖私人养老金的个人(或依赖所谓的养老金固定缴纳计划,而公司不承担付的人)面临同样的问题。Equities are not a miracle asset that will turn measly contributions into a generous pension. Those who want to retire in comfort should save more.股票不是一种可将微薄的捐款转化成丰厚的养老金的神奇资产。那些想要在退休后颐养天年的人应该更加节俭。 /201305/238221武汉医院泌尿外科

武汉华夏男子医院是不是私立医院 Science and technology科学技术Climate change气候变化Bell weather呈钟形曲线变化的天气A statistical analysis shows how things really are heating up一项统计分析显示出天气究竟是如何变热的ARE heatwaves more common than they used to be?热浪来袭真的比以前更加频繁了吗?That is the question addressed by James Hansen and his colleagues in a paper just published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.詹姆斯汉森与他的同事试图在《美国国家科学院院报》上发表的一篇新文章中回答这一问题。Their conclusion is that they are—and the data they draw on do not even include the current scorcher that is drying up much of North America and threatening its harvest.他们得出的结论是,情况的确如此,而且得出这一结论的依据这还不包括最近北美的酷热天气。现在那里的大部分地区已经干旱无比,当地农作物的收成也因此受到了威胁。The teams method of presentation, however, has caused a stir among those who feel that scientific papers should be dispassionate in their delivery of the evidence.然而,詹姆斯汉森与他的同事所采用的展示方案却在一群人中引起了骚动。这些人认为科技论文在表述据时应客观公正,For the paper, interesting though the evidence it delivers is, is far from dispassionate.但有意思的是,该文章在表述据时却远未做到不偏不倚。Dr Hansen, who is head of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, a branch of NASA that is based in New York, is a polemicist of the risks of man-made global warming.总部在纽约的戈达德太空研究所是美国国家航空航天局的一个分部门,该研究所的负责人汉森士能言善辩,他声称人为因素导致的全球变暖将给人类带来危害。Despite his job running a government laboratory, he has managed to get himself arrested on three occasions for protesting against those he thinks are causing such climate change.尽管汉森士主管政府实验室,他却参加过抗议活动,以此来反对那些他认为将造成此类气候变化的行为,而他也因此如愿被警察逮捕过三次。He clearly states in the papers introduction that he was looking for a way of conveying his fears to a sceptical public.汉森士在他的文章序言中明确指出,他正在寻找一种方法,以此让那些对他的观点持怀疑态度的公众体会到他的焦虑。Some of that scepticism is connected with the fact that although changes in the climate will inevitably result in changes in the weather, ascribing any given event—such as a local heatwave—to climate change is impossible.尽管气候变化将不可避免地导致天气变化,但不能将所有特定事件都归因于气候变化,而公众的怀疑态度中有一部分就与这一事实有关。Dr Hansen has therefore tried to go beyond the study of individual causes by demonstrating that what was once unusual is now common.因此,汉森士通过论过去人们眼中的异常天气如今已是十分常见,试图使他的研究不仅仅局限于个别原因。Longer, hotter summers夏天愈加漫长炎热了To do so, he and his colleagues took 60 years worth of data from the Goddard Institutes surface air-temperature analysis.为此,汉森士与其同事从戈达德研究所收集了60年地表气温分析数据。This analysis divides the planets surface into cells 250km across and records the average temperature in each cell.这些分析材料将地球表面分成了一个个宽250公里的区块,并记录了每个区域内的平均温度。The researchers broke their data into six decade-long blocks and compared those blocks statistical properties.研究者将这些数据按十年一组分成了六个时间段,并对这些时间段内的统计特性进行了比较。They looked in particular at the three months which constitute summer in the northern hemisphere.研究者特别关注了北半球夏季三个月的温度。First, they created a reference value for each cell.首先,他们计算出了1951年至1980年每一个区块夏季三个月的平均温度,This was its average temperature over those three months from 1951-80.并将这些数据作为每个区块的参考值。Then they calculated how much the temperature in each cell deviated from the cells reference value in any given summer.接着,研究者又计算在任意指定的夏季内每个区块内的温度分别与各自的参考值存在多少偏差。That done, they plotted a series of curves, one for each decade, that showed how frequently each deviant value occurred.这一步完成后,他们以十年为单位绘制了六条曲线,这些曲线显示出了每一个偏差值发生的频率。Since small deviations are common and large ones are rare, the result of plotting data in this way is a curve shaped somewhat like the cross-section of a bell.由于小的偏差时有发生,而大的偏差则较为少见,因此用这一方法对数据进行描绘,得出的曲线形状就像一个钟的横截面。Such distributions can be modelled by a mathematical function known as the normal distribution—or bell curve.这样的分布状态可以用数学上的一个函数来表示,即正态分布,又称钟形曲线。Whether based on data or a mathematical ideal, such a curve always has two parameters.无论是基于数据还是理想数学模型,钟形曲线都有两个参数。These are its mean and its standard deviation, which measures how wide the bell is.一个是平均值,另一个是它的标准差。The standard deviation is calculated from all of the individual deviations of the data points.标准差可以通过计算所有数值的方差(再开方)得到。To see what was going on, Dr Hansen superimposed the actual curves for each decade from the fifties to the noughties on a normal distribution, which acted as a reference curve.为了弄清气候变化,汉森士以正态分布曲线为参照曲线,将其与六十年中每十年一条的实际曲线相叠加。To make all the curves comparable, he expressed the values of the actual deviations as fractions of a standard deviation, and their frequencies as proportions of their total number.为了使所有这些曲线具有可比性,汉森士将实际偏差值用其与所属样本标准差的比例来衡量,用数据发生偏差数与数据总数的比例表述其频率。As the chart shows, there are two trends.如图所示,钟形曲线表现出了两种趋势。First, the peaks of the data-based curves move right, over time, with respect to the reference curve. In other words, the average temperature is rising.第一,对照参考曲线,随着时间的推移,这种数据型曲线的峰值会向右移,也就是说地球上的平均温度在上升。Second, more recent curves are flatter.第二,时间距离现在越近,曲线越矮胖,A flatter curve means a bigger standard deviation and a wider sp of results.这也就意味着标准差越大,温度数据分布越广。If the mean of each curve were the same, such flattening would imply both more cold periods and more hot ones.如果每一条曲线的平均值相同,那么这种平滑过程也就意味着地球上的寒冷期和炎热期的出现次数都会增加。But because the mean is rising, the effect at the cold end of the curves is diminished, while that at the hot end is enhanced.但由于这些曲线的平均值在增加,因此地球上寒冷期的出现次数会减少,而炎热期的出现次数则会增加。The upshot is more hot periods of local weather.最终导致的结果就是各地出现炎热天气的次数越来越多。Moreover, the bell-curve method makes it possible to say just how much more hot weather there is.此外,有了钟形曲线,人们还能判断炎热天气的出现频率比过去增加了多少。Dr Hansen defined extreme conditions as those occurring more than three standard deviations from the mean of his reference curve.汉森士下了定义:如果在他的参考曲线中某一数值偏离其平均值达到或超过三个标准差,那么这就是极端天气。In that curve, this would be an eighth of a percent at each end, which is more or less the value in the curve for 1951-61.在参考曲线中,左右两端数据中偏离均值超过三个标准差的极端数据应该恰好分别为0.125%,而1951至1961年这一时间段的极端数据分布情况大致上也符合这一特征。Nowadays, though, extreme conditions can be found at any given time in about 8% of the world.但现在世界上约有8%的地区在特定时间内都有极端天气的出现。Local weather patterns do, of course, have local causes. To that extent, they are accidental.当然,各地天气模式的出现的确包含着地方性的原因。在这种程度上说,它们的发生是具有偶然性的。But Dr Hansens analysis suggests that claims there is more hot weather around than there used to be have substance, too.但汉森士的分析表明,各地的炎热天气的确比以往多这种说法也是有依据的。Nothing in his analysis speaks of the cause of that substance. That is deliberate.但他的分析并没有涉及到这种依据的来源,而这也是汉森士有意为之。As he says in the paper, he wants the data to speak for themselves—though he is personally convinced that the cause is human-generated emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.正如他在文章中所说,他希望数据能说明问题—尽管他本人相信气候变暖是因为人类排放二氧化碳等温室气体造成的。But as the ed States bakes in what may turn out to be a record heatwave, he hopes he might now persuade those for whom global warming is, as it were, on the back burner, to agree that it is real, and to think about the consequences.但现在,一股或许是有史以来最猛烈的热浪正在炙烤着美国。他希望他现在能够说那些跟过去一样搁置考虑全球变暖问题的人,使他们认同全球变暖现象的确存在并考虑其后果。 /201402/276030湖北省中医院治疗前列腺疾病多少钱武汉华夏前列腺

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